• 详情 Influence of health risk and longevity risk on residents' optimal annuity and nursing insurance decision
    This paper explores the relationship between longevity risk and health status transition under the framework of life cycle model to explore the optimal insurance allocation including annuity and nursing insurance under different incidence scenarios and the old-age security needs of residents Based on the data from China Health and Pension Tracking Survey (CHARLS), this paper calculates the health state transition probability of residents and calibrates the health state transition probability by using the mortality data of Lee-Carter model, and then solves the optimal insurance decision of residents under different incidence scenarios by multi-period life cycle model The results show that the demand for first annuity and nursing insurance is influenced by initial endowment, health status, minimum living and bequest motivation Residents with lower initial endowments are reluctant to buy annuities and nursing insurance because of precautionary savings motivation Expenditure on care insurance when purchasing both annuities and care insurance may weaken the demand for annuities Secondly, under the interaction of longevity risk and health status transition, residents have higher disability probability and higher demand for annuity and nursing insurance under the scenario of expanding incidence Thirdly, under the optimal wealth decision, the optimal allocation of annuity and nursing insurance makes the wealth level of residents more stable
  • 详情 Alternative Financial Institutions in China
    This chapter introduces alternative financial institutions (AFIs) in China that do not fall within traditional financial institution (FI) models. We describe their business models and development dynamics in the context of economic and financial reforms and technological advancement. We find that various AFIs are formed based on social, business, and virtual networks to overcome capital allocation barriers, reduce costs, or improve efficiency, providing financial services for the underserved. However, without proper regulations, these AFIs could pose alarming levels of risk on financial stability. They repeat a boom-and-bust pattern, in parallel with the government's initial laissez faire approach but later harsh interferences: being taken over by formal FIs or shut down as illegal practices until the exceptional Ant-Financial case. Improving investors' financial knowledge and regulators’ competency is critical for China to advance its financial system and develop mature FIs and AFIs. We recommend key features required in such a regulatory framework.
  • 详情 The Behaviour of Chinese Government Bond Yield Curve Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
    The aim of the study is to investigate the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its methodology comprises the techniques of time series analysis, correlation analysis and dimensionality reduction. The main empirical results show that in the pandemic period, the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve differs significantly from that before the outbreak of COVID-19. This is evidenced by the weaker correlations among the analysed yields, the presence of anomalies, heterogeneous behaviour and probable arbitrage opportunities at the long-term end of the studied yield curve, as well as the significant changes in the main factors of its dynamics. The research also reveals that prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, portfolios composed of Chinese government bonds could be well protected against interest rate risk even by using traditional parallel shift immunization techniques. However, after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the use of such techniques would be relatively effective for portfolios of Chinese government bonds with maturities between 1 and 5 years, while portfolios that include Chinese government bonds with maturities greater than 7 years should be either hedged against all the three factors of the yield curve dynamics or be used only for arbitrage strategies.
  • 详情 Modern Partnership System is a Booster for High-quality Development of Entrepreneurial Enterprises in the Era of Digital Intelligence
    In the era of digital economy, although the production (labor) tools of enterprises are digitalized, intelligent, and networked, and new characteristics and scenarios have emerged in enterprise operation and labor methods, the human capital possessed by workers has become the driving force for the sustainable development of entrepreneurial enterprises. Workers who master digital technology play a decisive role in the sustainable and healthy development of entrepreneurial enterprises. The article points out that in the era of digital economy, human capital is a key factor for economic growth and development. In the fields of mixed ownership and private economy, the employment system will gradually "retire", and modern partnership systems will prevail; The modern partnership system can motivate partners to collaborate and innovate, which is an upgrade of the manager system; The article briefly introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the dual ownership structure and the dynamic equity distribution mechanism of start-up companies; And the achievements made by Xiaomi Group, Huawei Company, and Midea Group in implementing a business partnership system.
  • 详情 The Positive Investment Premium in China
    We document a positive investment premium in the Chinese market, in contrast to the typical negative investment premium in other markets. The premium only exists when we measure investment by quarterly asset growth, not annual asset growth. A positive premium can be attributed to the fact that quarterly asset growth positively predicts future profitability and GDP growth in the Chinese market, whereas both relationships are negative in the U.S. market. Furthermore, Chinese rms have shorter operating cycles compared to those in the U.S., which explains why quarter data is more valuable.
  • 详情 Free cash flow productivity among Chinese listed companies: A comparative study of SOEs and non-SOEs
    This paper investigates the free cash flow productivity of SOEs compared with non-SOEs and examines its possible determinants. We find that SOEs have slightly weak free cash flow productivity but significantly stronger than non-SOEs. Similar performance exists among commercial class I and II SOEs and public-benefit SOEs. Further analyses suggest that firm size, age, sales growth, ownership concentration, government subsidies, and industry monopoly factors cannot explain this phenomenon. The common driver for all types of SOEs to generate stronger free cash flows than non-SOEs is their stronger expense control capability.
  • 详情 破净溢出效应与系统性金融风险
    本文基于中国上市银行理财子公司的理财产品数据,结合2022年11月的理财产品大规模破净现象,研究了理财产品破净溢出效应对上市银行的系统性金融风险的影响。研究结果表明,理财产品破净溢出效应能够显著降低上市银行的系统性金融风险,但同时也显著增加整个金融体系的系统性金融风险。不同类型的理财产品,如固定收益类、中低风险和开放式理财产品对系统性金融风险的影响存在差异。金融传染或风险溢出效应并非破净溢出效应的主要驱动因素。因此,理财子公司作为银行网络的外围节点,能够有效分散银行风险,而理财产品的全面净值化能够快速识别、度量和释放底层资产风险,从而降低整个银行体系的系统性金融风险水平。这些发现对于进一步加强理财产品市场监管制度建设,提高系统性金融风险防范能力具有重要意义。
  • 详情 僵尸企业债券定价扭曲与资源配置效率 :基于金融分权视角的解释
    本文利用2008-2020年国有企业债券数据实证检验僵尸企业的债券定价问题。实证结果表明僵尸企业债券存在严重的定价扭曲,且这种扭曲效应能够传染到非僵尸企业债券定价中,进而导致整个债券市场定价扭曲。具体地,(1)相比于非僵尸企业,僵尸企业的信用利差较低,且存在一二级市场价差为负的情况,上述结论证实了僵尸企业债券存在定价扭曲问题。(2)上述扭曲效应在地方政府财政健康度差、承销商受地方政府控制力度大、银行承销商业绩基本面差、银行与企业存在借贷关系、以及僵尸企业风险大的组中更加显著,这些结果说明在金融分权下,地方政府通过其控制的金融资源(银行承销商)帮助僵尸企业发行债券。(3)一个省份中僵尸企业比例越大时,非僵尸企业债券的发行信用利差越低,债券市场非僵尸企业的业绩基本面没有发生显著变化,同时非僵尸企业发行债券的一二级市场价差也越小。这个结果说明,僵尸企业债券的定价扭曲会导致整个债券市场定价效率低下。本文研究结论为加快出清僵尸企业、促进与完善市场化发行机制,以及提高债券市场信息披露质量提供了相应的经验证据。
  • 详情 国内供应链构建水平与企业进口议价能力——基于上市公司的经验证据
    对于参与国际循环而言,构建国内大循环的意义何在?依托大国市场优势构建国内供应链,将对中国企业进口议价能力产生何种影响?文章通过综合利用中国上市公司供应链数据库、Wind上市公司数据库和中国海关数据库的匹配数据,研究发现:(1)“入世”以来,中国制造类上市公司的国内供应链构建水平及其进口议价能力均呈现出先抑后扬的发展态势。(2)国内供应链的构建有效增强了企业进口议价能力,该影响在高技术密集型部门、民营企业、沿海地区、加工贸易企业及全球价值链下游企业中的表现尤为显著。(3)进口替代效应、技术进步效应和企业成长效应是国内供应链促进企业进口议价能力提升的重要途径。(4)相对于省内供应链,突破本地市场边界的区域内供应链、跨区域供应链、全国供应链的构建,对于企业进口议价能力提升的作用更加明显。文章研究表明,以国内供应链构建进一步增强企业进口议价能力,应加快内资企业成长,培育国内供应链“链主”;依托超大规模市场潜力,提升国内生产配套能力;协调区域专业化分工,加快国内产业梯度转移。
  • 详情 Human Capital is the Driving Force for the Sustainable Development of Entrepreneurial Enterprises in the Digital Economy Era
    The rapid development of the digital economy is driving profound changes in production methods, lifestyles, and corporate governance. Human society has entered a new era where digital technology is rapidly advancing and playing an important role. In the era of digital economy, although the production (labor) tools of enterprises are digitized, intelligent, and networked, and new characteristics and scenarios have emerged in the operation and labor methods of enterprises, the human capital possessed by workers has become the driving force for the sustainable development of entrepreneurial enterprises. Workers who master digital technology play a decisive role in the sustainable and healthy development of entrepreneurial enterprises. The article briefly introduces the establishment and development of human capital theory, pointing out that in the digital economy era, human capital has greater potential for appreciation, and its marginal returns show a trend of increasing; Human capital is a key factor in economic growth and development. The surplus of producers in an enterprise refers to the income that producers receive in excess of their production costs. The owners of human resources should receive a portion of the investment return that should belong to human capital from the enterprise in the form of "producer equity", "labor stock", or equity incentives in proportion. Equity incentives have become an important corporate governance mechanism in the capital market. The article also elaborates on the modern partnership system, which can motivate partners to collaborate and innovate, and is an upgrade of the manager system; Briefly introduced the achievements made by Xiaomi Group and Huawei in implementing the business partner system.