• 详情 Common Institutional Ownership and Enterprises' Labor Income Share
    Based on the sample of Chinese A-listed firms from 2003 to 2020, this paper investigates the effect of common institutional ownership on labor income share. The result shows that common institutional ownership can significantly increase firms’ labor income share. Mechanism tests indicate that common ownership can: 1) alleviate financial constraints by reducing the debt financing costs and increasing the trade credit financing, thus increasing the labor income share; 2) improve corporate innovation and therefore enhances the demand for highly-skilled labor, which eventually boost labor income share. Competitive hypothesis test represents that common institutional ownership can reduce the monopoly power of enterprises and decrease monopoly rent, so as to increase the proportion of labor in the distribution. Further analyses present that the network formed by the common ownership can effectively exert the financing support role of SOEs and the knowledge spillover effect of innovative-advantage firms, which contributes to the labor income share increasing of other related firms in the network connection. This study not only enriches the economic consequences of common institutional ownership, but also provides policy guidance for the government to further optimize the income-distribution pattern by deepening the reform of the financial market.
  • 详情 State Versus Market: China's Infrastructure Investment
    Amid growing global interest in state interventions, this paper examines the impact of Chinese government infrastructure investments on improving firm productivity. It centers on a policy aimed at directing regional governments to foster a more conducive market environment for private enterprises. Our analysis reveals that the positive effect of infrastructure investment on firm productivity is increased by 42.5% for private firms in industries that benefitted from improved market entry opportunities and an even more striking 97.9% in provinces where arbitrary fines were curtailed. These findings underscore the complementary roles of state interventions and the development of market mechanisms in boosting firm productivity.
  • 详情 Will the Government Intervene in the Local Analysts’Forecasts? Evidence from Financial Misconduct in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises
    This paper explores the impact of government intervention on local analysts’ earnings forecasts, based on a scenario of financial misconduct in Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The results show that, under the influence of the government, local analysts’ earnings forecasts for SOEs with financial misconduct are less accurate and more optimistically biased. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that forecast bias by local analysts is greater when officials have stronger promotion incentives, when regions are less market-oriented and have a larger share of the state-owned economy, and when SOEs contribute more to taxation and employment. In further analysis, we find that local analysts have a more optimistic tone in reports targeting non-compliant SOEs. Local analysts who depend heavily on political information will also issue more biased and optimistic forecasts on SOEs with violations. Finally, as a reward for achieving government goals, the local brokerages affiliated with these analysts and providing these optimistic forecasts are more likely to become underwriters in seasoned equity offerings of SOEs. This paper reveals that government intervention significantly influences analyst forecasts, providing implications for understanding the sources of analyst forecast bias.
  • 详情 Revealing Ricardian Comparative Advantage with Micro and Macro Data
    We propose a sufficient statistics approach to measuring Ricardian comparative advantage in a quantitative trade model featuring cross-country differences in productivity, factor prices, market size, as well as monopolistic competition, endogenous markups, and firm heterogeneity. The model’s micro-foundations do not necessarily imply that the relevant data for the proposed sufficient statistics must include micro information, but its micro-structure is needed to understand how only macro information can be used instead. Applying the approach to Chinese microdata and cross-country macrodata, we show that imperfect competition with endogenous markups and firm heterogeneity have far-reaching implications for correctly measuring Ricardian comparative advantage.
  • 详情 Market-Incentivized Environmental Regulation and Firm Productivity: Learning from China's Environmental Protection Tax
    The role of Market-incentive environmental regulation (MIER) within the framework of environmental governance is patently evident. While extant literature lauds the advantageous outcomes attributed to the environmental protection tax (EPT) which as a representative of MIER, our empirical inquiry presents a contrasting narrative. By employing the sophisticated Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference (DDD) methodology and utilizing data from A-share listed firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2015-2022, our investigation reveals a significant decrease in firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) following the implementation of EPT. Our core assertion is fortified through the discernment of two plausible mechanisms, namely, the production downsizing effect and the production capital crowding-out effect. Building upon this revelation, we delve into the nuanced pathways through which firms can strategically mitigate the impacts of EPT, encompassing the enhancement of human capital, amplification of research and development (R&D) investments, and fortification of overall firm resilience. Heterogeneity analysis discloses a notably heightened impact of EPT on TFP of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), larger enterprises and enterprises located in eastern regions. Ultimately, an approximately cost-benefit analysis conclusively demonstrates that the benefits derived from EPT far surpass the costs incurred by the concomitant industrial output reduction, which further illustrates the rationale for the implementation of EPT.
  • 详情 Large Language Models and Return Prediction in China
    We examine whether large language models (LLMs) can extract contextualized representation of Chinese news articles and predict stock returns. The LLMs we examine include BERT, RoBERTa, FinBERT, Baichuan, ChatGLM and their ensemble model. We find that tones and return forecasts extracted by LLMs from news significantly predict future returns. The equal- and value-weighted long minus short portfolios yield annualized returns of 90% and 69% on average for the ensemble model. Given that these news articles are public information, the predictive power lasts about two days. More interestingly, the signals extracted by LLMs contain information about firm fundamentals, and can predict the aggressiveness of future trades. The predictive power is noticeably stronger for firms with less efficient information environment, such as firms with lower market cap, shorting volume, institutional and state ownership. These results suggest that LLMs are helpful in capturing under-processed information in public news, for firms with less efficient information environment, and thus contribute to overall market efficiency.
  • 详情 工业元宇宙是粤港澳大湾区实现新型 工业化的加速器——以广州市为例*
    本文研究了元宇宙和工业元宇宙的基本概念及其主要相关技术的特点,指出工业元宇宙是工业乃至产业数字化、智能化发展的全新阶段。介绍了广州市各区从战略高度大力支持元宇宙赋能传统产业,各区“元宇宙”产业发展各有侧重;广州具有发展元宇宙产业的硬件和软件等优势,拥有多个元宇宙场景应用的优势产业,数实融合为广州元宇宙产业发展创造了良好基础。阐述了工业元宇宙是广州数字经济与实体经济融合发展的新时空,是大湾区发展新质生产力的助推器,是新型工业化发展的重要推动力量。针对广州不同区域在推进工业元宇宙中的不足或不均衡现象,提出了完善顶层设计、强化统筹协调、构建全面场景示范、构建协同集聚生态、构建技术攻关体系、推进区域创新要素整合共享、构建区域制造业创新协同机制等建议。
  • 详情 AI对公司治理的范式重构
    本文系统梳理国内外关于人工智能(AI)与公司治理的相关文献,聚焦AI在公司治理中替代人类决策引发的实践难题与理论争议,从法、理、情三大维度剖析核心治理困境:在“法”的维度,面临法律主体缺位、算法黑箱导致的责任界定模糊及跨境法律适配冲突;在“理”的维度,存在技术路径锁定、战略弹性不足及行业特性适配偏差等治理策略问题;在“情”的维度,凸显算法偏见引发的公平性争议及自主决策与人类控制的伦理冲突(如隐私侵犯、情感缺失)。基于上述困境,本文针对性提出破局路径:法理层面构建“AI守住合规底线”的制度体系,战略层面确立“人主导下的AI辅助”实施路径,伦理层面明确“人引领AI”的价值准则,为AI与公司治理的深度融合提供兼具理论与实践意义的研究框架。
  • 详情 合法性视角下AI对董事替代的演进逻辑:从制度壁垒到协同创新
    人工智能(AI)在公司治理中的应用引发其替代董事的合法性争议。本文以公司法合法性框架为视角,梳理AI参与董事职能的起源、发展及制度障碍。研究表明,AI替代面临三重困境:主体资格上,非生物属性与董事资格要求冲突,受法律人格排斥及身份职能不可替代性制约;决策程序上,算法黑箱违背透明度原则,且缺乏伦理决策能力;责任承担上,多方推诿形成归责真空,监督机制适配失效。现阶段AI替代尚不具备完整合法性,但可通过技术创新、制度突破与全球协同构建“有限替代”范式。本文揭示其合法性演进逻辑,为AI治理合法化及人机协同治理提供理论与实践参考。
  • 详情 Asset Bubbles, R&D and Endogenous Growth
    This paper examines the impact of asset bubbles on innovation and long-run economic growth within a semi-endogenous growth framework, incorporating idiosyncratic productivity shocks and endogenous credit constraints in the R&D sector. It demonstrates that pure bubbles tied to intrinsically useless assets and equity bubbles linked to intermediate goods firms can coexist, relaxing credit constraints and boosting entrepreneurs’ total factor productivity (TFP), which stimulates R&D and enhances growth along the transitional path. However, these bubbles generally do not influence the long-run economic growth rate. The model’s mechanisms and predictions are supported by aggregate and firm-level evidence, showing a positive correlation between equity bubbles and R&D investment, with stronger effects during periods of tightened financial constraints.