• 详情 Modeling the Implied Volatility Smirk in China: Do Non-Affine Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility Models Work?
    In this paper, we investigate alternative one-factor and two-factor continuous-time models with both affine and non-affine variance dynamics for the Chinese options market. Through extensive empirical analysis of the option panel fit and diagnostics, we find that it is necessary to include both the non-affine feature and the multi-factor structure. For performance evaluation, we examine various measures from both aggregate and dynamic perspectives. Our results are statistically significant.
  • 详情 人口流动如何重塑养老基金版图:京津冀与长三角的“缴费效应”实证分析
    在人口老龄化加剧与劳动力跨区域流动常态化的双重背景下,城镇职工养老保险基金的区域失衡问题日益凸显。本文以2011-2023年我国京津冀与长三角的7个省级行政区的面板数据为研究样本,聚焦劳动力流动对城镇职工养老保险基金抚养比(DR)的影响机制,通过构建双向固定效应模型、滞后变量模型及交互项模型,系统检验劳动力流动的直接效应、区域异质性及全国统筹政策的调节效应。研究发现:劳动力流动和全国统筹政策对DR均存在显著正向影响;区域异质性表现为长三角地区劳动力流动对DR的影响显著强于京津冀地区。文章结论为优化养老保险基金区域调剂机制、制定差异化劳动力流动与社保政策提供实证支撑。
  • 详情 Sdg Performance and Stock Returns: Fresh Insights from China
    Utilizing microevaluation data on the extent to which firms advance the achievement of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provided by Robeco, this paper examines the influence of corporate sustainability on stock price performance and its underlying economic mechanisms. The empirical results suggest that firms’ sustainability has a significant negative effect on excess returns, particularly the contribution of firms to the social dimension of sustainability. Firms’ SDG performance can alleviate financing constraints and reduce financial risk, but it does not significantly enhance financial performance, leading to market capital outflows from high SDG-performing firms, especially from individual investors. Furthermore, our results suggest that high SDG-performing firms are undervalued and do not increase the information content in their stock prices, which may be the main reason for the negative effect of SDG performance. We also conduct a series of heterogeneity tests, which show that firms from regions with high environmental regulatory intensity and less economic development, as well as heavily polluting firms and firms with poorer information environments, experience greater negative effects. These findings have implications for investors to properly understand corporate sustainability and for regulators to promote the development of a low-carbon economy.
  • 详情 From Complainees to Co-Complainants: Practices of Institutional Actors Facing Direct Complaints
    This paper examines the interactional phenomenon where an institutional complainee initiates a complaint and becomes a co-complainant with their original complainant against a third party that is proposed to have caused grievances to both participants. Institutional complainees initiate their third-party complaints when their complainants repeatedly refuse to affiliate with their attempts to shift responsibility or their proposed solutions. This shift from being the complainee to being a co-complainant is regularly accomplished through practices in which the institutional complainee: 1) produces implicit counter-complaints; 2) partitions complainants and themselves as sharing similar identities; and 3) highlights and upgrades their own grievances. Once complainants affiliate with their complaints, institutional complainees attempt to end the complaint sequences. The interactions end with a sense of solidarity sustained between the participants, even though no satisfying solutions are offered to the original complainants. The findings suggest that institutional actors can make relevant their noninstitutional identities and go against what is expected of them as institutional actors to achieve the institutional task of directing blame away from their institutions. Recorded phone conversations between local residents and various institutional actors during COVID-19 lockdowns in China serve as data for this study.
  • 详情 Buying from a Friend? A Cautionary Tale of Introducing Friendship Information to Support Online Transactions
    While observational studies have long suggested a positive correlation between social relationships and online transactions, surprisingly little research demonstrates a causal link. Effects identified in observational data generally conflate the Information effect, which bears the counterfactual causal interpretation, with the Homophily/environment effect. Against this background, this study conducted a pioneering a randomized field experiment design to isolate the Information effect of friendship disclosure from confounding homophily factors. We exploit a rare opportunity to conduct a field experiment on a large Chinese online second-hand platform, in which we manipulate buyer and seller’s awareness of their preexisting friendship ties. We provide the first empirical evidence that the effect of revealing friendship information between transaction parties turns out to be insignificant. We demonstrate that reliance on observational estimates of the “total effect” of friendship significantly overstates the benefits of providing friendship information in online marketplaces. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of social commerce and highlight the potential fallacy of relying on observational data in business studies.
  • 详情 Intra-Group Trade Credit: The Case of China
    This study examines how firm-specific characteristics and monetary tightening influence the composition and dynamics of trade credit received by Chinese listed firms. Using panel data, the analysis distinguishes among three sources of trade credit: related parties, non-related parties, and controlling shareholders. The findings reveal a clear asymmetry in firms’ financing responses to monetary tightening: while trade credit from non-related parties declines, credit from related parties—especially controlling shareholders—increases. This underscores the strategic role of intra-group financing in buffering firms against external financial shocks during periods of constrained liquidity. Moreover, firm-specific factors such as size, profitability, market power, and ownership have differing effects depending on the source of trade credit. These effects are most pronounced when the credit is extended from controlling shareholders, reflecting the influence of intra-group trust and reduced information asymmetries. The results also highlight a substitute relationship between bank credit and trade credit, which weakens when trade credit is sourced from related parties and disappears entirely in the case of controlling shareholders. By shedding light on the distinct mechanisms of intra-group trade credit in China’s underdeveloped financial system, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of corporate financing strategies of Chinese firms.
  • 详情 Technological Momentum in China: Large Language Model Meets Simple Classifications
    This study applies large language models (LLMs) to measure technological links and examines its predictive power in the Chinese stock market. Using the BAAI General Embedding (BGE) model, we extract semantic information from patent textual data to construct the technological momentum measure. As a comparison, the measure based on traditional International Patent Classification (IPC) is also considered. Empirical analysis shows that both measures significantly predict stock returns and they capture complementary dimensions of technological links. Further investigation through stratified analysis reveals the critical role of investor inattention in explaining their differential performance: in stocks with low investor inattention, IPC-based measure loses its predictive power while BGE-based measure remains significant, indicating that straightforward information is fully priced in while complex semantic relationships require greater cognitive processing; in stocks with high investor inattention, both measures exhibit predictability, with BGE-based measure showing stronger effects. These findings support behavioral finance theories suggesting that complex information diffuses more slowly in markets, especially under significant cognitive constraints, and demonstrate LLMs’ advantage in uncovering subtle technological connections that traditional methods overlook.
  • 详情 Incentives Innovation in Listed Companies: Empirical Evidence from China's Economic Value-Added Reform
    Innovation is crucial for long-term corporate value and competitive advantage; however, it can misalign the interests of managers and investors. Balancing managers’ short- and long-term goals is a pivotal challenge in promoting innovation incentives. Therefore, this study examines innovative incentives for managers of publicly traded firms to address the issue of agency problems. The study focuses on economic value-added (EVA) reform implemented by China’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which encourages EVA-driven R&D investments as the primary management metric. The policy effectively motivates key corporate managers by reducing capital costs and stimulating increased innovation. Following this policy’s implementation, notable innovation disparities exist between state-owned enterprises and firms not subject to the reform. Furthermore, innovation incentives significantly affect overconfident company managers, yielding positive effects on innovation.
  • 详情 Carbon Regulatory Risk Exposure in the Bond Market: A Quasi-Natural Experiment in China
    This study aims to examine the causal effect of carbon regulatory risk on corporate bond yield spreads in emerging markets through empirical analysis. Exploiting China's commitment to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 as an exogenous shock to an unexpected increase in carbon regulatory risk, we perform a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) strategy. We find that exposure to carbon regulatory risk leads to an increase in bond yield spreads for carbon-intensive firms located in regions with stricter regulatory enforcement. This positive relationship is more pronounced for firms with financing constraints, belonging to more competitive industries, and located in regions with a high marketization process. We further identify that higher earnings uncertainty and increased investor attention serve as two mechanisms by which carbon regulatory risk influences the yield spreads of corporate bonds. Moreover, the spread decomposition reveals that the rise in bond yield spreads after an increase in carbon regulatory risk is primarily driven by the rise in default risk rather than the rise in liquidity risk. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering carbon regulatory risk exposure in financial markets, especially in developing economies like China.