• 详情 以青山集团LME 镍被逼仓事件为例的期货 市场狙击风险分析框架
    伦敦金属交易所(LME)镍期货价格在2022年3月7日至8日两个交易日暴涨,令我国青山控股集团持有的镍套期保值空头浮亏惨重,成为又一起企业参与境外衍生品交易被国际资本狙击的风险事件。本文对“青山事件”狙击活动进行了详细案例分析与解构,从狙击动机、客观条件、市场环境、狙击策略四个维度提出了可用于分析期货市场狙击事件的分析框架。研究发现,交叉套保令青山集团实物交割能力弱成为被狙击的客观条件,地缘政治风险引发的低水平镍库存的市场环境进一步限制了青山集团的库存掌控能力和交割能力。LME合约设计令交易仓位和动机暴露,LME交易制度令短期价格操纵等狙击行为更具便利性,并可据此推断出本次狙击的合约、时间、价格拉动手法等狙击策略。大类持仓报告的分析揭示出本次狙击的本质可能是对镍资源的争夺战。最后,本文利用事件分析法证实了2022年3月7日镍期货价格暴涨并非基本面因素支撑而是交易因素驱动的价格异常。本研究结合案例分析、数据分析和实证分析的多种范式,所提出的分析框架对于识别狙击风险,识别市场操纵,更好的评估相关风险并做好早期预警和防范具有重要价值。
  • 详情 Impacts of CME changing mechanism for allowing negative oil prices on prices and trading activities in the crude oil futures market
    This study investigates and compares the effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)'s negative price suggestion on prices and trading activities in the crude oil futures market to discuss the cause of negative crude oil futures prices. Through event studies, our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic no longer impacts crude oil futures prices in April after controlled market risk, while the CME’s negative prices suggestion can explain the crude oil futures price changes around and around even after April 8 to some degree. Moreover, our study uncovers anomalies in prices and trading activities by analyzing returns, trading volume, open interest, and illiquidity measures using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The results imply that CME’s allowing negative prices strengthens the price impact on trading volume and makes illiquidity risk matter. Our results coincide with the following lawsuit evidence of market manipulation.
  • 详情 移动互联网可及性对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响
    文章利用CHFS(2019)调查数据,实证研究了移动互联网可及性对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响。结果表明:移动互联网可及性能显著提高家庭参与风险金融资产配置的概率和占比;异质性分析表明,在家庭是否参与风险金融资产配置方面,移动互联网可及性对低收入、城镇户口、受教育程度在高中及以上的家庭的影响程度更大;在家庭风险金融资产配置占比方面,移动互联网可及性对低收入、乡村户口、受教育程度在高中及以上的家庭影响程度更大;机制分析显示,移动互联网可及性可通过提高金融素养、增强投资便利性和增加家庭总收入,进而提高家庭参与风险金融资产配置的概率和程度。根据实证结果,本文提出了一些可行的政策建议。
  • 详情 黄河流域高耗能产业集聚加剧还是改善环境污染?
    推动高耗能产业集聚的绿色发展,是落实黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略的关键之一。基于黄河流域9省区2005-2020年的数据,运用固定效应模型和中介效应模型,实证分析高耗能产业集聚对环境污染的影响,结果表明:黄河流域高耗能产业集聚显著加剧了环境污染,在一系列稳健性检验后这一结论依然成立。机制分析表明,高耗能产业集聚加剧了黄河流域的能源消耗,不利于产业结构升级且技术创新效应不明显,因此高耗能产业集聚对环境质量的负外部性影响更加突出。异质性分析发现,石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业、化学原料和化学制品制造业以及电力、热力生产和供应业这三类产业集聚对环境污染的加剧作用最为显著。本文为黄河流域高耗能产业集聚对环境污染的影响研究提供理论分析和实证证据,并为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提出相关政策建议。
  • 详情 企业ESG表现对权益资本成本的影响研究 ——基于企业风险的视角
    企业ESG表现良好是否会降低权益资本成本,事关我国通过建设多层次资本市场实现绿色发展战略目标,具有重要现实意义。本文选取2009—2020年中国A股上市公司数据,考察企业ESG表现对权益资本成本的影响,从企业风险视角出发采用多种风险指标对上述影响的作用机制进行检验,并进行不同层面的异质性分析。实证结果表明:(1)企业良好的ESG表现能够降低企业权益资本成本。(2)企业风险是上述影响的作用机制之一,即企业提高ESG表现能够通过降低企业风险来降低权益资本成本。(3)从宏观来看,企业所在地区较高的市场化程度是上述影响机制成立的条件之一。(4)从行业来看,ESG表现与权益资本成本之间的关系在不同污染属性的行业之间具有异质性。(5)从微观来看,企业所有制对于ESG表现与权益资本成本之间的关系存在明显的调节效应。本文深化了人们对“双碳”背景下企业可持续发展能力与企业融资成本之间关系的理解,为企业重视和提升ESG表现提供了有力的经验证据。
  • 详情 Government Deleveraging and Corporate Distress
    We show that government deleveraging causes corporate distress in a distorted financial market. Our difference-in-differences analysis exploits China’s top-down deleveraging policy in 2017, which reduces local governments’ borrowing capacity through shadow bank financing. Private firms with government procurement contracts experience larger accounts receivable increases, larger cash holdings reductions, and higher external financing costs. These firms also experienced greater likelihoods of ownership changes and deteriorated performance. Effects are muted for state-owned enterprises, which enjoy funding privileges in China’s financial system. Our paper thus reveals a novel channel of allocation inefficiencies where government deleveraging amplifies adverse impacts of financial distortions.
  • 详情 Industrial Metaverse:A New Path for the Transformation of Manufacturing Enterprises Empowered byDigital Intelligence
    In the metaverse era,the digital transformation of manufacturing is an inevitable requirement to reshape the manufacturing value chain and enhance industrial competitiveness. The Industrial Metaverse combines digital technology with real industries, promotes the efficient development of physical industries, and builds a new manufacturing and service system covering the entire industry chain and value chain. Metaverse is a more concrete complex of the digital future, and a new area of digital economic innovation and industrial chain expansion. The Industrial Metaverse is a work platform that combines real employees and virtual employees, completes the industrial manufacturing value chain cycle, enables virtual digital technology to empower the real world, and realizes the symbiosis and integrated development of the real world and the digital world. Copy and change the real world in the digital world, and realize intelligent, humanized and crowd-innovative innovation management. The paper expounds that digital transformation is the only way for high-quality development of enterprises, and the industrial metaverse is a new time and space for the transformation and rebirth of manufacturing,and an important driving force for the future industry. The machine vision measurement of GETECH.CN and the digital twin solutions of SIEMENS and GE were briefly introduced and their effects.
  • 详情 Value of Qualification to Buy a House: Evidence from the Housing Purchase Restriction Policy in China
    China’s housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy imposes administrative restrictions on households’ home purchase eligibility to curb speculative demand. We quantify households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to re-acquire such eligibility. The empirical results based on the staggered DID specification suggest that when local governments implement the HPR policy, the transaction prices of judicial housing auctions legally exempted from HPR increase by 18.91%. This HPR-exempted qualification premium can be converted to an estimate of 22.48% of the transaction price as buyers’ WTP for home purchase eligibility. The heterogeneity analysis also suggests that the WTP significantly increases when speculative incentives are stronger in the housing market. If policymakers in mainland China consider replacing the HPR policy with an additional buyer transaction tax like that in Singapore and Hong Kong, China, the WTP estimates can serve as the benchmark in setting the tax rate.
  • 详情 Industrial Robots and Finance
    We examine empirically and theoretically the effects of industrial robot adoption on corporate financing. Empirically, using firm-level panel data on robot deployment in China, staggered across both provinces and industries, we find that robot adoption reduces the cost of debt and increases leverage. We hypothesize that the underlying reason is that being a substitute for labor, robots provide a hedge against fluctuations in labor costs. A model based on this hedging argument delivers additional testable predictions concerning determinants of the relation between robot adoption and corporate financing, which are borne out in the data, providing support for the proposed mechanism. Our evidence is inconsistent with alternative channels behind the observed relations.
  • 详情 Research on Financial innovation of Manufacturing Supply Chain in the Digital Economy Era
    In the era of digital economy, innovation in industrial chain and supply chain is an important part of industrial transformation and upgrading, and also an inevitable choice for enterprises to win competitive advantages. The competition between enterprises is not only about products and services, but also about the industry chain, supply chain, and value chain; The autonomy and controllability of the supply chain and its management level determine the quality of enterprise operation and development. This paper analyzes the characteristics of Midea Group's intelligent supply chain management, discusses the supply chain financial characteristics of Haier, Sany Group and Xiaomi, and confirms the importance of industrial chain and supply chain Financial innovation for high-quality development of manufacturing industry. Pointing out the necessity and feasibility of digital technology empowering innovation in logistics and supply chain management, smart supply chain is the guarantee for large-scale personalized customization, and supply chain finance plays an important role in the development of industrial clusters.