• 详情 Research on Innovation in Internal Control and Risk Management of Financial Enterprises in the Digital Intelligence Era
    Establishing a comprehensive risk management system and establishing a sound and effective internal control mechanism are important conditions for the survival and healthy development of financial enterprises. This paper analyzes the lessons of Société Générale's financial shock in Europe in 2008 due to the serious lack of internal control mechanism; Elaborated on the influencing factors and implementation paths of internal control in the digital intelligence era, pointed out the key points of constructing an internal control system under risk management in the digital intelligence era, and proposed the main methods and six major technologies of internal control in the digital intelligence era; This paper expounds that the audit Digital transformation is conducive to the realization of internal audit objectives and the improvement of internal audit efficiency. This paper introduces the main paths and key points of audit Digital transformation, and points out that intelligent audit is the major trend of future audit development; Introduced the application of digital twins in commercial bank auditing. It points out that the Digital transformation of audit is also the upgrading and transformation of organizations and talents, and it needs to vigorously cultivate and introduce audit professionals to support the smooth completion of the Digital transformation of audit. Financial enterprises should continue to innovate their internal control mechanisms, continuously improve and strengthen their internal control and risk management functions, continuously improve the effectiveness of internal control, and assist in the high-quality development of enterprises.
  • 详情 The Rise of E-Wallets and Buy-Now-Pay-Later: Payment Competition, Credit Expansion, and Consumer Behavior
    The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal rise of digital wallets, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated their adoption globally. Such e-wallets provide not only a conduit to external bank accounts but also internal payment options, including the ever-popular Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL). We examine, for the first time, e-wallet transactions matched with merchant and consumer information from a world-leading provider based in China, with around one billion users globally and a business model that other e-wallet providers quickly converge to. We document that internal payment options, especially BNPL, dominate both online and on-site transactions. BNPL has greatly expanded credit access at the extensive margin through its adoption in two-sided payment markets. While BNPL crowds out other e-wallet payment options, it expands FinTech credit to underserved consumers. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we also find that e-wallet credit through BNPL substantially boosts consumer spending. Nevertheless, users, especially those relying on e-wallets as their sole credit source, carefully moderate borrowing when incurring interest charges. The insights likely prove informative for economies transitioning from cash-heavy to cashless societies where digital payments and FinTech credit see the largest growth and market potential.
  • 详情 盈利季节性的市场反应 ——基于中国A股公司的研究
    以2002年至2018年A股上市公司的季报量化了公司的盈利季节性,考察了市场对盈利季节性的反应,并从行为金融学的角度解释了其原因。研究发现,相较于盈利旺季而言,股票在其盈利淡季的盈余公告发布期间能够获得更大的累计超额收益,且买入盈利淡季股票、卖出盈利旺季股票的套利组合在经过标准风险因子的调整后每月能够获得显著为正的超额收益:同时,相较于其他季度而言,股票在盈利淡季的盈余公告发布后具有更大的未预期盈余。结果表明,由于市场参与者受代表性启发(Representativeness Heuristic)认知方式的影响,对盈利淡季近几年持续的低盈利情况反应过度,因此对该季度的盈利产生悲观情绪而低估该季度的盈利,故盈利淡季的盈余公告发布后能获得更大的超额收益。
  • 详情 分析师的公共信息依赖:来自借壳上市的证据
    本文以借壳上市为研究场景,讨论和度量了分析师盈余预测中的公共信息依赖效应。研究发现,相比于控制样本,借壳上市企业在业绩承诺期结束后三年的分析师盈余预测误差上升约 39.72%,分歧度上升约 35.29%。进一步研究发现,失去业绩承诺信息导致分析师盈余预测的公共信息含量下降,但私有信息含量没有变化,同时也会导致分析师盈余预测修正频率上升,但并未影响分析师的企业调研行为。研究还发现,分析师的盈余预测报告在业绩承诺存续期内缺乏有用性,仅在业绩承诺期结束后引起了投资者更强烈的市场反应。总体而言,公共信息对于分析师盈余预测质量至关重要,分析师在失去重要的公共信息后未能通过私有信息加以弥补。本文的研究揭示了分析师的公共信息依赖效应,对于深入理解中国情境下分析师的行为逻辑提供了帮助。
  • 详情 亚洲经济体银行业跨境信贷联系的测度与分析
    内容提要 2008年全球金融危机的经验说明银行业在跨境金融联系中发挥着关键作用。近年来,全球经济一体化使得跨境金融联系愈加紧密,本文以 2016-2021 年 14 个亚洲经济体银行业的未偿债权与债务的季度数据为样本构建了亚洲经济体银行业跨境信贷网络,并使用网络分析方法对该信贷网络的结构特征、重要性节点以及中日银行业的跨境联系进行了分析。研究表明,2016-2020年亚洲地区各经济体银行业之间的跨境关联越来越紧密,全球疫情带来的负面影响在 2021 年逐渐显现,使得各经济体的跨境信贷联系明显收缩:新加坡在亚洲银行业跨境信贷网络中发挥着极其重要的中介作用,印度的跨境关联强度不断提升,其重要性逐渐增强:中国银行业对外发出的跨境关联强度增幅显著,在网络中扮演着越来越重要的资金贷出方的角色,重要程度显著上升,而日本银行业的跨境关联强度无明显增幅,在网络中的重要性相对下降。本文为中国银行业的对外开放以及亚洲区域金融一体化的实现提供了政策启示。
  • 详情 Urban Vibrancy, Human Capital, and Firm Valuation in China
    This paper provides a first systematic analysis of urban vibrancy in human capital supply in explaining persistent geographic firm valuation dispersion in China. We find persistent, significant city-to-city differences in Tobin’s q, especially among large, mature, or high labor-intensive firms. To explain such geographic differences in firm valuations, we identify several factors of the endowed city competitive advantages in creating human capital that play important roles in explaining the persistent geographic firm valuation premia. Our evidence suggests that city geographic location and initial cumulated human capital supply have created long-lasting, and growing, shareholder wealth by attracting and retaining talents and human resources in local firms.
  • 详情 ChatGPT的“二律背反”与有效市场的探讨
    摘要:以ChatGPT为代表的现象级的人工智能出现,未来势必拥有更大的普及性金融场景应用,预判其对金融市场有效性的影响十分必要。ChatGPT人工智能未来对于金融市场的影响,存在着“二律背反”规律:即一方面人工智能加强信息传播所将使市场更接近于有效市场状态;但相反但是人工智能可能提供错误市场信息,从而加剧市场风险,降低市场有效性程度。通过中美股市数据的分析对比,发现完全有效市场理论中的“理性人”假设与现实情况不符,而因为“二律背反”,很难预测ChatGPT最终对于金融市场产生什么样的影响。
  • 详情 中国式金融加速器: 全行业的“激进扩张”与“全军覆没”
    我国金融体系必须走出一条中国特色的金融服务实体经济、防范化解风险的发展之路,才能扬长避短地助力我国经济高质量发展、产业结构转型。我国金融体系、企业投融资具备三个鲜明特征,其一,政府政策和金融机构间存在共振特征,其二,存在显著的融资摩擦,其三,企业各项资产、融资工具存在风险传染特征。这三个鲜明特征与西方传统金融加速器理论基础假设相悖,会加强传统金融加速器的放大效应,加剧实体经济的波动。本文通过三种方式验证上述中国式金融加速器机制的存在,包括PPP政策冲击下典型行业与企业特征事实,引入三个特征假设后的金融加速器理论模型和进一步的数值模拟分析。本文还发现,缓和的调控政策和差别化的银行信贷策略可以缓解中国式金融加速器。本文成果有助于认识我国金融体系规律、防范化解实体经济风险与金融业高质量发展,对金融监管亦有贡献。
  • 详情 Factor Beta, Overnight and Intraday Expected Returns in China
    We study the relationship between common factor betas and the expected overnight versus intraday stock returns. Using data from the Chinese A-share markets, we find that the Fama-French five-factor betas and expected returns exhibit contrasting relationships overnight versus intraday. The market, value, and profitability factors earn positive beta premiums overnight and negative premiums intraday, while the size and investment factors’ beta premiums behave oppositely. The night and day factor beta premium differentials are more muted among stocks with higher investor sophistication and vary across macroeconomic conditions. The contrasting day and night beta premiums extend to some other common factors and Chinese B shares, and vary their signs for some factors in the U.S. market.
  • 详情 中国A股市场不确定性溢价与融资融券的不对称性
    本文基于Jurado et al.(2015)提出的大数据分析方法,提出了基于中国整体经济和金融市场不确定性的个股不确定性的度量方法,并检验了在存在卖空限制的中国A股市场中的不确定性的定价,着重研究了融资融券的不对称性对个股不确定性定价的影响。股票特质性波动率刻画了股票收益率中不能被市场风险因子解释的波动,通常被用于度量不确定性,本文提出其中与宏观金融不确定性的相关部分才会在市场中被定价。本文提出利用股票收益率与宏观金融不确定性指数的绝对相关系数来刻画在市场中被定价的个股不确定性,并发现不确定性越高的股票预期收益越低,即不确定性溢价在A股为负,这与Miller(1977)的理论相一致,即在存在卖空限制的市场上,不确定性越大的股票其价值被高估程度越大,因此预期收益率越低。本文进一步发现融资融券限制放开之后,不确定性的负溢价略有降低,市场的定价效率有所改善但并不明显,反映了市场中存在的卖空限制和隐性卖空成本较高,及其对市场定价效率的负面影响。因此,在中国A股市场合理地放开融资融券限制,特别是有效降低融券成本、引入长期投资者提供优质券源,能够降低融资融券的不对称性,改善市场的定价效率,从而更好地发挥金融市场的资源配置作用。