• 详情 考虑供应商资金约束的绿色供应链内部融资策略研究
    在绿色供应链市场中,通过零售商向供应商提供投资或贷款,可以减少供应商资金不足、无法正常组织生产引起的零售商以及整个供应链利润的损失。本文假设市场总需求不确定,构建供应商资金约束情况下供应链内部的股权融资和债权融资模型,分析了供应商和零售商的最优决策和利润的影响。研究发现:随着消费者绿色偏好、零售商的风险厌恶程度以及股权比例的增加,产品绿色度和批发价格增加;当供应商进行融资时,若股权比例极低,应该选择债权融资方式进行融资,随着股权比例的增加,达到临界点之后,供应商应该选择股权融资。当股权比例满足一定条件下,供应商和零售商会达成共识选择股权融资模式进行融资,从而实现双赢。
  • 详情 对地方政府违规举债担保问题的公开问责真的有效吗?—-来自城投债发行定价和新增规模的证据
    中央财政部和审计署于2017年起开展了针对地方政府违规举债担保行为的核查和公开问责工作。本文从城投债切入,评估该公开问责对当地新增隐性债务的影响,发现:公开问责通过严厉“问责”大大激励当地省级政府去排查整改类似问题,从而削弱当地各级政府的举债激励和担保意愿,更低的举债激励缩减了隐性债务增量。继而投资者通过“公开”的问责信息,预期到当地各级政府的担保意愿下降,从而隐性债务融资成本增加,进一步缩减隐性债务增量。当公开问责力度更大时,上述效应更强。由此,本文提出要落实公开问责的严肃性和常态化安排。
  • 详情 The Real Effects of China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Trading Program
    China’s emissions trading system applies a two-stage emissions intensity-based compliance quota allocation scheme different from the cap-and-trade systems prevalent in developed economies. It was designed to accommodate the country’s socioeconomic complexities and implemented following a learning-by-doing approach. Compliance firms significantly expanded green investment and production workforce. Their climate decisions are influenced by state ownership and regional heterogeneity. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and less liberal market firms increased hiring, but not investment; non-SOEs and more liberal market firms grew investment. There are mixed welfare effects: compliance firms maintained productivity and efficiency; however, ordinary workers’ real wages were reduced, more prominent in SOEs.
  • 详情 Research on Spillover Effect of Foreign Market Risk on Chinese Capital Market from Perspective of Full Financial Opening-up
    Starting from document research, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the risk spillover effect from developed capital markets to the Chinese capital market. After that, this paper conducts an empirical study on the risk spillover effect of developed capital markets on the Chinese capital market by using the DCC-GARCH model. Then the impact degree of global major stock market fluctuations on the Chinese stock market is measured. The analysis shows that there exists a significant risk spillover effect of developed capital markets on the Chinese capital market, but the effect began to weaken after the financial crisis and the size of the spillover effect can be affected by macro factors such as geographical locations, foreign trade, and foreign investment.
  • 详情 股票市场有效性与风险投资市场匹配度:基于弱方差标度指数
    本研究采用弱方差标度指数方法,深入探讨了股票市场的有效性是否显著改善风险投资市场匹配度.研究发现,股票市场有效性的提高,有助于提升风险投资机构与被投资的创业企业之间的匹配度.本文不仅借鉴了现有文献中使用的两个工具变量——基金赎回压力和知情交易概率,还构建了一个新的工具变量:沪深A股市场的涨跌停占比,以解决潜在的因果关系疑虑.进一步研究证实:股票市场的有效性能够促进风险投资市场中的信息交换,提高风险承担水平,从而提升风险投资市场匹配度;股票市场的有效性对风险投资机构的退出表现具有积极影响.本研究不仅为理解金融市场对实体经济的影响提供了新的视角,而且强调了证券市场有效性的广泛正外部性,还为深入理解风险投资市场的投融资合作关系提供了新的理论视角和实证支持.
  • 详情 The Prospect Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Empirics
    We propose a Capital Asset Pricing Model where investors exhibit prospect preferences. In equilibrium, we find that agents seek an optimal trade-off between expected returns, variance, and skewness. All assets in the economy are then priced by a three-factor model, which augments the security market line with two factors that respectively capture positive and negative coskewness with the market portfolio. Using U.S. stock market data, we find evidence consistent with these predictions. In additional tests, we find that the results are stronger among stocks traded by less sophisticated investors. Overall, prospect preferences have a substantial effect on stock prices.
  • 详情 Implied Equity Premium and Market Beta
    We extend the ex-ante mean-variance (SVIX) asset pricing models of Martin (2017) and Martin-Wagner (2019) to a mean-variance-asymmetry (AVIX) framework by incorporating higher-moment and co-moment risk in asset pricing. Our proposed AVIX model is risk-neutral with left-tail asymmetries in returns to correct the SVIX approach's downside bias. We derive an option implied market beta of a stock as the weighted average of the betas of SVIX and AVIX. Empirically, the implied beta has significant predictability of risk/return relationship We develop an investible portfolio (MKT*) that mimics realized outcomes on the implied market index adjusted for volatility asymmetry.
  • 详情 Relative Investor Sentiment
    We propose a new investor sentiment index by estimating the differences in variance,skewness, and kurtosis from realized stock returns and option implied moments. We show that our index cannot be explained by risk factors such as market risk, firm size, value, or profitability. Furthermore, we present evidence that this correlation can be exploited for momentum strategies, which perform significantly better during high-stimulation periods. In fact, our methodology can be extended to a daily sentiment measure and stock-specific sentiment indices.
  • 详情 机构投资者长期持股与金融稳定
    防范化解金融风险是金融工作的永恒主题。为维护金融稳定,国务院金融稳定发展委员会鼓励长期机构投资者增加持股比例。如何认识机构投资者长期持股对金融稳定的影响及其机制呢?基于此,本文以2012-2018年所有的股票型基金和混合型基金披露的每半年度股票资产组合为研究对象,考察机构投资者长期持股特征及其作用机制。研究发现:(1)机构投资者长期持股具有较低的业绩敏感性、较低的股价同步性且与未来盈余正相关。(2)在股市异常波动期间的下跌阶段,投资者持股期限与股票价格下跌成反比,即机构投资者持股时间越长(换手率越小),越能缓解股票价格的下跌。这说明机构投资者长期持股能够显著地稳定金融市场。而在反弹阶段,机构投资者持股期限与股票价格反弹成正比,机构投资者持股时间越长(换手率越小),越能促使股票价格的反弹,进而促进公司价值回归。(3)机构投资者长期持股稳定金融的机制在于有效地缓解了市场抛售压力。进一步研究发现,机构投资者长期持股能够降低金融市场波动;具有丰富投资经验的基金经理,有助于机构投资者采取长期持股行为,这对促进机构投资者长期持股具有一定的政策意义。
  • 详情 When Price Discovery and Market Quality Are Most Needed: The Role of Retail Investors During Pandemic
    Using the Boehmer, Jones, Zhang, and Zhang (2021) algorithm, we identify a broad swath of marketable retail investor orders in the U.S. market during the pandemic. The marketable retail trading volumes rapidly rise from $325 billion in 2019 to $852 billion at mid-2020, and stay high for the next two years. The retail order flows positively predict cross-sectional returns over various horizons, and are associated with wider future effective spreads and higher future volatilities, as well as less market participations by high frequency traders and short-sellers. We find supportive evidence for informed and uninformed retail hypotheses.