We construct the China Crude Oil Volatility Index (CNOVX)—the first model-free, optionimplied measure of forward-looking oil price risk for China—using INE crude oil options from 2021 to 2024 and an adapted CBOE methodology that accounts for sparse strike availability via smooth interpolation and extrapolation. Our results show that CNOVX increases with trading activity in the futures market, declines with option volume, and is strongly predicted by the 30-day realized variance of the SC crude oil futures contract. External shocks, including the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the Geopolitical Risk Index, significantly elevate CNOVX levels. During the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality risk intensifies the volatility-amplifying role of futures trading and strengthens the volatility-dampening effect of options, while confirmed case counts have weaker influence. We further document a pronounced asymmetric leverage effect: negative futures returns raise CNOVX more than positive returns of equal size. However, volatility feedback effects are negligible, as changes in implied volatility respond primarily to contemporaneous market conditions. Overall, CNOVX serves as a timely and informative benchmark for monitoring risk in China’s evolving crude oil derivatives market, with valuable implications for investors, hedgers, and policymakers.

The Fibonacci sequence is created by the recurrence of Fn = Fn−1 + Fn−2 ( n ≥ 2; F0 = 0; F1=1) from which the nearly 38.2% or 61.8% is derived for revenue increase or decrease. It has been increasingly and widely studied in research on options market trading. The high volatility of the options market makes the option premium greatly affected by the growing emotional involvement of buyers and sellers before the position is closed. The efficient affective computing and measures may provide traders a rough guide to working out the route to a profit. Based on the practical application of Fibonacci-like sequence and affective computing of option trading data in China SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) 50ETF options, we concluded that profit statistically changes around 38.2% or 61.8% increase line once call options flood in the market and bring the rapid price acceleration. On the contrary, 38.2% or 61.8% is considered another temporary decrease line when the price quickly falls from the balance point of price under the influence of huge put options. The mixed emotions of greed and fear make the option premium commonly fluctuate in cycles. The Fibonacci-like wavelet analysis is only one of the options volatility strategies, and it does not change the nature of market uncertainty.

February 9, 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of China's ETF options market. To celebrate this anniversary, China will open the ETF options market to qualified foreign investors on October 9, 2025. This is both an opportunity and a challenge. This is the first time in a decade that China has decided to open its ETF options market. The challenge is that foreign investors will face competition from China's 1.08 million options investors. This article will discuss the basic rules and requirements for options trading in China. In addition, we will introduce the application of Confusion Quotient sentiment index in options trading, and analyze how options contract premiums fluctuated significantly after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, 2024. Within a month, the Fed's interest rate cut triggered a sharp rise in call options contracts in China's options market, with a maximum profit of 3507.32%, and put option contracts suffered huge losses, with a maximum loss of 99.91%. Our findings prove that China's ETF options market is highly volatile, presenting both opportunities and challenges for foreign investors. Options trading is a double-edged sword, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

农业保险与乡村产业振兴耦合协调发展是推动农业高质量发展的重要因素。通过面板向量自回归模型、耦合协调度模型和障碍度分解模型，本文分析了2007—2021年西南地区33个地级（及以上）城市农业保险与乡村产业振兴的动态互动关系、耦合协调度的时空演化及障碍因子。研究发现：二者存在逐渐加深的相互促进关系。二者的耦合协调度逐年提升，但区域差异显著；区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源，区域内矛盾日益凸显；空间收敛模型结果显示，西南地区整体及各省域均不存在显著的σ收敛，但均存在显著的β收敛，尤以贵州收敛速度最快。影响二者协调发展的核心障碍包括农业保险规模水平的明显短板、“量”与“质”的系统性失衡以及乡村产业结构合理化、机械化与绿色发展水平的局限。据此，本文就两系统自身及耦合协调发展的推进路径提出建议。

人口老龄化是我国今后相当长一个时期的基本国情，作为《宪法》第四十五条所规定的“基本公共服务”内涵的应有延伸，人居环境的适老化改造事关老年人“老有所居、居有所安”的基本民生保障，也是实现老年人居家养老与医疗照护的重要基础。但我国《民法典》关于建筑物区分所有权治理秩序的规定尚不翔实，实践中既有建筑共有部分的适老化改造囿于决策程序僵局、改造费用规范性指引不足、不利影响补偿机制缺失等多重困境，无法适恰既有区分所有建筑物共有部分的适老化改造需求。原居养老与居家安全危机之间的对立矛盾亟需整合共有规则要素，通过统筹老旧小区的专有与共有治理效能、功能提升与空间协调、利用现状与未来需求三对交互关系，形成体系化的治理机制设计，以积极应对人口老龄化国家战略，破除老年人群体居住保障的低水平均衡陷阱。

在人口老龄化持续加深的背景下，我国养老社会保障体系面临筹资放缓、支出刚性上升与区域负担失衡等多重压力，财税可持续性风险由局部性问题逐步演化为系统性挑战。本文立足财税治理视角，在梳理我国养老社保财税支撑现状的基础上，围绕筹资端、支出端和长期运行三个层面识别主要风险，并从制度设计、政策协同、人口结构变化及征管监管机制等方面剖析风险成因。研究进一步结合德国、日本、美国及北欧国家的实践经验，提炼出“法治化筹资、参数化调节、数据化征管、协同化治理”的共性路径。基于此，本文提出优化养老筹资机制、重构中央与地方支出责任、完善风险预警体系、强化财税政策协同的治理方案。研究认为，养老财税风险防控的关键不在单一政策加码，而在于建立跨周期、可预警、可调节的制度框架，实现养老保障公平性与财政可持续性的动态平衡。

收益率非对称性对资产定价的影响是金融学的重要研究议题，然而现有文献在非对称性的定价效力和机制上存在明显分歧。为此，本文提出了一个基于概率分布、能全面刻画收益率整体非对称性的新测度RA（return asymmetry），并利用中国、美国等全球八大主要股票市场的数据，首次为该争议提供了系统且一致的跨市场实证证据。研究发现：第一，RA测度在各市场中均能显著负向预测股票横截面收益率，且其解释力明显优于传统测度；第二，RA的定价优势源于其更能精准地刻画复杂分布的定价特征，并能有效捕捉系统性与特质性非对称之间的交互定价效应；最后，通过从博彩偏好、投资者情绪、关注度和套利限制等多维度进行机制检验，证实行为因素是驱动收益率非对称性定价的核心机制。本研究不仅为弥合既有学术分歧提供了新证据，也为理解全球股市中共同的行为驱动定价机制提供了理论参考与实践启示。

在人口老龄化加剧与生育率持续走低的背景下，商业养老保险作为多层次养老保障体系的关键补充，其发展面临居民参与率低、供需失衡的挑战。不同于传统经济理性视角，该研究从文化观念切入，探讨传统生育伦理对居民参保决策的影响。基于中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）2017年数据发现，传统生育观念显著抑制商业养老保险参与，且这一效应在西部地区及低教育水平群体中更为突出。机制分析表明，传统观念通过削弱金融信任和降低财经信息关注度间接阻碍参保行为。研究为破解养老金融“有限参与”困境提供了文化解释，对优化养老保障政策具有参考价值。

Purpose The study investigates the impact of government intervention policy of capital markets (“National Team”) on firms’ sustainable management, i.e., green mergers and acquisitions (GMAs) in China, aiming to understand how such interventions influence corporate investment activities amidst a growing focus on green transition. Design/methodology/approach The research employs a dynamic analysis of quarterly data from Chinese companies (2014 Q1 to 2022 Q4), utilizing identified strategies, such as double machine learning-DID and multiple panel data regressions to assess the effects of government intervention on GMAs, and examines potential economic channels like liquidity, market stabilization, and informativeness. Findings The study finds that increased government intervention via direct stock purchases significantly boosts both the number and amount of GMAs, with economic significance of 23% and 45%, respectively. It identifies liquidity, market stability, and informativeness efficiency as underlying economic channels for this effect. Practical implications The findings suggest that government interventions can enhance corporate investment in green sectors, guiding firms to align strategies with sustainability goals. This can inform policymakers regarding the effectiveness of direct stock purchases in fostering a green economy, especially for large emerging countries. Social implications By promoting GMAs, government interventions contribute to green innovation and energy transition, ultimately benefiting society through enhanced environmental sustainability and compliance with eco-friendly regulations. Originality/value This research uniquely documents the direct effects of government stock purchases on corporate green financial activities, particularly GMAs, in a Chinese context characterized by tight credit, thereby expanding the understanding of government intervention in emerging markets.

This study investigates the impact of RegTech adoption in the M&A regulatory review process on deal performance. Leveraging the staggered implementation of the SOEs Online Supervision System (SOSS) by China’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) across its central and 31 provincial offices from 2018 to 2021, we find that SOSS directly enhances SASAC’s decision-making efficiency and improves its capacity to screen and approve higher-quality M&A deals. More importantly, SOE-led M&A transactions exhibit higher announcement returns as well as improved long-run stock and operating performance following the system’s implementation. The positive impact of SOSS is more pronounced for acquirers with stronger technological infrastructure, in transactions characterized by low transparency and weak governance, and in provinces with more stringent external scrutiny. Overall, by addressing regulator-firm information asymmetry and reinforcing managerial accountability, SOSS improves regulatory effectiveness in overseeing major investment activities among SOEs.