• 详情 Understanding the Effects on Corporate Performance of Investments in Wealth Management Products
    This paper evaluates how purchases of wealth management products (WMPs) influence the performance of Chinese non-financial listed companies. Our main finding is that purchasing WMPs enhances firm performance, but the relationship shows an inverted U-shape: when WMP investment exceeds 62.57% of total assets, its positive effects diminish and ultimately harm performance. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the performance gains are concentrated among non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), while state-owned enterprises (SOEs) experience no significant benefits or even negative effects. Furthermore, the positive impact of WMPs is more pronounced in firms with higher leverage, abundant cash holdings or lower top-shareholder concentration.
  • 详情 Fintech Financial Accelerator: Evidence from a Social Media Field Experiment in China *
    We conduct a field experiment in China, o↵ering small business owners a conditional social media advertising subsidy. Beyond boosting business revenue and employment, the inter-vention significantly increases access to fintech credit: treated firms are more likely to open online stores and obtain online loans, while bank credit remains una↵ected. Our findings reveal a “fintech accelerator” mechanism—digital marketing drives sales growth that directly improves firms’ eligibility for fintech lending—demonstrating how targeted digital interven-tions can enhance financial inclusion and reshape credit allocation for small businesses.
  • 详情 The Role of Negative Peer Events in Leverage Manipulation: Evidence from Bond Defaults in China
    This study examines the role of negative peer events, specifically initial bond defaults, in driving leverage manipulation of non-defaulting firms within the same region. Controlling for firm-specific time-varying characteristics, we find that initial bond defaults within a province are associated with an increase in leverage manipulation among non-defaulting firms. Two potential mechanisms underlying this relationship include increased financial constraints for these firms and elevated investor risk perception of the local bond market. The positive impact of bond defaults on leverage manipulation is more pronounced for financially constrained firms, firms with severe information asymmetry, and those affected by high-rated bond and principal defaults. We further show that companies that manipulate their debt ratios experience higher default risk. Our findings have important implications for transparent disclosure and highlight the negative effect of regional bond defaults on corporate financial reporting practices.
  • 详情 Investors' Risk-taking Behaviors after "Escaping from Death"
    We examine how investors who experienced paper gains during a bubble-crash episode, deemed as investors “escaping from death”, adjusted their future risk-taking. Using detailed transaction-level data and a quasi-experiment based on an unanticipated government intervention in the 2007–08 Chinese stock market, we find that investors who “escaped from death” reduce risk-taking behaviors over the next five years. The evidence shows that the change in risk taking is likely at-tributable to reference-dependent preferences. However, the effect diminishes over time and investors “escaping from death” do not exhibit a diminished tendency toward risk-taking when confronted with a stock market bubble crash again.
  • 详情 Mobility Frictions, Partial Migration and the Distributional Effects of International Trade
    A critical barrier to labor mobility arises from institutional constraints that im-pose discriminatory costs on migrants. Using China’s hukou system as a case study,we construct a novel, outcome-based measure of mobility frictions that infers thesediscriminatory costs. We document a systematic relationship between our frictionmeasure, migrants’ decisions to leave behind families (“partial migration”), remit-tances, and expenditure patterns. Our estimated spatial general equilibrium modelencompasses these features and examines how mobility frictions interact with tradeliberalization to shape migration, inequality, and welfare. Trade-exposed regionsbenefft from attracting migrants, while high-friction regions experience muted laborreallocation and smaller welfare gains.
  • 详情 如果 AI统治算法, 证券市场会变怎样? ———基于熵理论的中美证券市场效率检验
    本文重点探讨与人工智能和资本市场相关的一个问题,即如果AI统治算法,证券市场会变怎样? 本文以哲学上的 “二律背反” 和香农熵理论为方法,分析金融人工智能对证券市场信息效率的影响。 熵作为信息论中的一个重要概念, 被用来衡量信息的混乱程度, 即信息的不确定度;“二律背反” 则强调了一种辩证视角。 经实证研究发现: 人工 智能对于证券市场效率的影响并非二元对立,AI技术降低信息 “噪音”, 提高投资者认知概率(降熵);但AI算法的同质化、 市场过度反应或其他风险因素会削弱市场效率, 增加市场的信息不对称性 (升熵)。AI对以中美为代表的新兴市场和成熟市场的影响因市场而异, 我们认为人工智能的出现不是一般性技术冲击 而是属于技术 “奇点” 或约瑟夫·熊彼特的 “创造性破坏” 的范畴, 是真正长期将对资本市场产生持续性影响的重大因素, 这也是本文的一个主要研究价值。
  • 详情 我国证券零售业务的发展演进、模式变革与未来趋势
    随着我国资本市场全面深化改革持续推进、资管新规落地打破刚性兑付,居民家庭财富配置加速向权益类资产转移,证券零售业务作为券商连接居民财富与资本市场的核心端口,正经历从传统通道经纪业务向现代财富管理业务的深刻转型。本文系统梳理我国证券零售业务从线下渠道时代到全链路生态时代的四个发展阶段,结合行业发展政策、市场环境、技术变革与客户需求变迁,剖析各阶段的核心逻辑、业务特征、盈利模式与行业痛点;对比分析传统线下、互联网拓客、生态化运营、TAMP创新模式等主流拓客方式的底层逻辑、优劣势、适配场景与实践效果,并重点结合美国利普乐(LPL Financial)成熟模式,深入探讨国内券商TAMP模式的本土化实践现状、差异与优化路径;在此基础上提炼行业发展面临的同质化竞争、获客成本高、合规约束收紧、投顾能力不足、数字化转型滞后等核心挑战,结合资本市场发展趋势与居民财富管理需求升级方向,提出针对性发展对策与未来趋势预判,为券商零售业务突破发展瓶颈、实现高质量财富管理转型提供理论参考与实践思路。
  • 详情 Emotions and Fund Flows: Evidence from Managers' Live Streams
    Do investors respond to what fund managers say, or how they look saying it? Using 2,000 live-streamed sessions by Chinese ETF managers and multimodal machine learning, we show that managers’ facial expressions, not their words, drive fund flows. A one-standard-deviation increase in positive facial affect raises next-day flows by 0.17pp (260% of mean). Vocal tone shows weak effects; textual sentiment shows none. Critically, facial expressions predict flows but not returns, indicating pure persuasion rather than information transmission. Effects strengthen when investors are emotionally vulnerable (down markets, retail-heavy funds) and persist 2-3 weeks before dissipating. Our findings challenge the emphasis on textual disclosure in finance and raise questions about investor protection as video communication proliferates.
  • 详情 Skin in the Game or Selling the Game? Managerial Ownership and Investor Response in Mutual Funds
    This paper examines whether mandatory ownership disclosure aligns incentives or distorts in-vestor beliefs. Using a sample of 1,436 Chinese equity-oriented mutual funds from 2012 to 2023,we find that higher managerial and senior ownership are significantly associated with larger in-flows, suggesting that investors treat ownership as a quality signal. However, we find no evidencethat ownership forecasts superior future returns or risk-adjusted alphas. Mechanism tests showthat the ownership-flow effect is much stronger in low-marketing funds and that managers increaseownership after weak flows, a countercyclical pattern inconsistent with overconfidence and consis-tent with strategic remedial signaling. Overall, ownership disclosure appears to operate primarilythrough investor perception rather than information about managerial ability, weakening the linkbetween capital allocation and true skill in the mutual fund industry.