所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价/2023/2023年第09期

摘要

In this paper, we examine the prediction performance using a principal component analysis (PCA). In particular, we perform a PCA to identify significant factors (principal components) and then use these factors to form predictions of stock price movements. We apply this strategy on the Chinese stock markets. Using data from January 2, 2019 till September 16, 2021, the empirical results show substantial out-performances from the PCA-based predictions against a naïve buy-and-hold strategy and also single time-series predictions of individual stocks. Next we examine if the factors retrieved from PCA are indeed important contributing factors in explaining stock price movements. To do this, we adopt a machine learning technique popular in studying stock performances – random forest. We discover that, comparing to widely used descriptive factors such as industry sector, geographical location, and market types (known as “board” or “ban” in Mandarin), principal components rank very highly among those descriptive factors.
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关键词:

Ren-Raw Chen; Leon (Xing) Li; Seiko Yeh Predicting Stock Moves: An Example from China (2023年08月24日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/dzqk/detail/13223

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