Dynamic efficiency is an essential issue in macroeconomics and finance, central to the analyses of economic growth, asset pricing, and fiscal policies for both academia and policymakers. We offer an integrated analysis of metrics from the perspective of interest rates and capital returns, examining the relationship between varying rates of return r and growthg in China. We compare the risk-free rate rf, the returns on assets re, and the returns on capital rk with the growth rate g. Our findings indicate that, in general, rf < g, g < re, and g < rk. As the economy slows, the gap between rf and g continues to shrink, while the signs suggest that returns to capital are falling slightly slower than the rate of economic growth. Furthermore, we use a state-space model to estimate China’s natural rate of interest r∗ and potential output growth rate g∗. We find that r∗ < g∗ and the gap between themhas gradually narrowed over the past two decades.
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