所属栏目:银行与金融机构/金融与宏观经济/2024/2024年第09期

Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Chinese and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Chinese Tourism
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发布日期:2024年07月18日 上次修订日期:2024年07月18日

摘要

This paper focuses on how Chinese and global economic policy uncertainties (CNEPU and GEPU) and geopolitical risks (CNGPR and GGPR) affect the growth of inbound tourism in China using ARDL and NARDL models as well as monthly series of Chinese inbound tourism revenue and arrivals. Firstly, we find significant effects of CNGPR and GGPR as well as GEPU on the growth of inbound tourism in Hainan Province and even in China nationwide, while the impact of CNEPU is limited. Among them, GEPU always has a significant long-term negative impact on inbound tourism growth (both inbound tourism revenue and inbound tourism arrivals). However, CNGPR has a significant short-term negative impact on inbound tourism growth in China nationwide but it has a significant long-term negative impact on inbound tourism growth in Hainan Province. Besides, estimation results of NARDL model further show the significant short-term effects of GEPU and GGPR on the growth of inbound tourism arrivals in Hainan Province and even in China nationwide, and such short-term effects are always significantly asymmetric. Among them, the negative components of GGPR can always more influence the growth of inbound tourism arrivals. However, the positive components of GEPU can more influence the growth inbound tourism arrivals in Hainan Province, but the negative components of GEPU can more influence the growth of inbound tourism arrivals in China nationwide.
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LUJIA MA; JIAJI ZHU; WEI HAN Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Chinese and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Chinese Tourism (2024年07月18日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/dzqk/detail/15766

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