所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价/2025/2025年第01期目录

摘要

This paper investigates the high-frequency dynamics of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professional forecasters. We propose a novel mixed-frequency estimation approach that integrates daily asset returns with quarterly expectation data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our findings indicate that consensus forecasts are updated efficiently according to Bayes' rule, independent of prior forecasts. By employing "representative forecasters" as proxies for real-world agents, we derive a simple yet intuitive evolution equation for disagreement, revealing that changes in disagreement are primarily driven by different interpretations of new information. Furthermore, we reconstruct daily series of expectations and disagreement concerning macroeconomic growth, achieving impressive R2 values of 93.3% and 84.5% against the true quarterly series.
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邓皓天; 李江远; 杨金强 High Frequency Evolution of Macro Expectation and Disagreement (2024年10月19日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/dzqk/detail/15988

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