所属栏目:银行与金融机构/金融与宏观经济/2026/2026年第02期

DOI号:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2026.110176

Global supply chain pressure and long-term stock–bond correlations in China
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发布日期:2026年05月27日 上次修订日期:2026年05月27日

摘要

This paper investigates how the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) affects long-term stock–bond correlations in China, employing mixed-frequency data from April 2005 to June 2025 in a DCC-MIDAS-X framework. Results show that higher GSCPI significantly reduces long-term stock–bond correlations, thereby enhancing the hedging property of bonds. This effect is both state-dependent and asymmetric, remaining significant in low-volatility regimes and following negative shocks, while becoming largely muted during high-volatility periods or after positive shocks. However, the impact of GSCPI weakens substantially after China’s 2014 financial liberalization, as global financial factors increasingly drive cross-asset dynamics. Moreover, GSCPI provides incremental information that enhances portfolio diversification and hedging performance.
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马丽冬; 熊又林; 沈军 Global supply chain pressure and long-term stock–bond correlations in China (2026年05月27日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/dzqk/detail/16700

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