所属栏目:资本市场/市场有效性

Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles
认领作者 认领作者管理权限
发布日期:2008年05月03日 上次修订日期:2008年05月03日

摘要

Motivated by the behavior of asset prices, trading volume, and price volatility during episodes of asset price bubbles, we present a continuous-time equilibrium model in which overconfidence generates disagreements among agents regarding asset fundamentals. With shortsale constraints, an asset buyer acquires an option to sell the asset to other agents when those agents have more optimistic beliefs. As in a paper by Harrison and Kreps, agents pay prices that exceed their own valuation of future dividends because they believe that in the future they will find a buyer willing to pay even more. This causes a significant bubble component in asset prices even when small differences of beliefs are sufficient to generate a trade. In equilibrium, bubbles are accompanied by large trading volume and high price volatility. Our analysis shows that while Tobin’s tax can substantially reduce speculative trading when transaction costs are small, it has only a limited impact on the size of the bubble or on price volatility.
展开

WEI XIONG Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles (2008年05月03日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/11797

选择要认领的作者1
身份验证1
确认
取消