The evidence on the relation between idiosyncratic risk and future market return is at odds
with the theory in Merton (1987). We argue that this is because conventional idiosyncratic
risk measures are too noisy that consequently camou?age the true pricing relation suggested
by the theory in empirical tests. To reduce the noise, we employ a random portfolio approach
to construct an alternative aggregate idiosyncratic risk measure. Due to a high correlation
between the noise components of the conventional idiosyncratic risk measure and our portfolio
idiosyncratic risk measure, we include both measures simultaneously in a predictive regression,
in which the conventional idiosyncratic risk measure helps to further reduce the noise in our
portfolio idiosyncratic risk measure. We ?nd that both variables are signi?cant and jointly
predict returns on the market with an adjusted R2
of 2%. Our results are very robust to all
conventional control variables, sample periods, the size deciles
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