We study the connection between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk
premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast longhorizon growth in the marginal bene?t of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment
growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that high values of the risk premiums forecast
low payroll growth and increases in unemployment rate in the short run, but high payroll growth
and decreases in unemployment rate in the long run. High values of lagged payroll growth and
decreases in lagged unemployment rate also forecast low stock market excess returns.
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