This paper empirically models China’s stock prices using conventional fundamentals:
corporate earnings, risk-free interest rate, and a proxy for equity risk premium. It uses the
estimated long-run stock price misalignments to date booms and busts, and analyses
equity market reforms and excess liquidity as potential drivers of these stock price
misalignments. Our results show that China’s equity prices can be reasonable well modelled
using fundamentals, but that various booms and busts can be identified. Policy actions,
either taking the form of deposit rate changes, equity market reforms or excess liquidity,
seem to have significantly contributed to these misalignments.
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