所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

The Pricing of Policy Instability in Interest Rates: The China Experience
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发布日期:2012年02月29日 上次修订日期:2012年02月29日

摘要

Our study is the first to examine the effect of policy instability on interest rates. China offers a natural setting for the experiment because financial market liberalization policy flip-flops recur. When a policy is reversed, interest rate level and spread can increase or decrease in the interbank repo market. Accounting for the bureaucratic quality of policymaking, we find that the nonpredictable, non-credible and non-timely reversal of an existing policy is related to higher interest rate spread and volatility, which represent higher risk premia in interest rates. Conversely, predictable, credible and timely reversal is related to lower interest rate spread and volatility. Our results suggest that bureaucratic quality is a moderating factor and high bureaucratic quality can reduce the risk premia of policy instability being priced in interest rates.
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Swee-Sum Lam; Weina Zhang The Pricing of Policy Instability in Interest Rates: The China Experience (2012年02月29日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/13961

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