Our study is the first to examine the effect of policy instability on interest rates. China offers a
natural setting for the experiment because financial market liberalization policy flip-flops recur.
When a policy is reversed, interest rate level and spread can increase or decrease in the interbank
repo market. Accounting for the bureaucratic quality of policymaking, we find that the nonpredictable,
non-credible and non-timely reversal of an existing policy is related to higher
interest rate spread and volatility, which represent higher risk premia in interest rates. Conversely,
predictable, credible and timely reversal is related to lower interest rate spread and volatility. Our
results suggest that bureaucratic quality is a moderating factor and high bureaucratic quality can
reduce the risk premia of policy instability being priced in interest rates.
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