This paper examines how China allocates its newly accumulated foreign assets by analyzing
the long-run relationship between net national savings, foreign exchange reserves, and
outward direct investment (ODI). Using quarterly data from 2005 to 2023, a cointegrated
vector autoregression framework shows that ODI—particularly through state-owned enterprises—
has emerged as an important channel for recycling national savings abroad. Although
short-run reserve fluctuations persist, sustained reserve accumulation has become less central
to China’s external asset management. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting
the institutional role of state ownership in shaping cross-border investment patterns and by
identifying ODI as a strategic mechanism for channeling national savings internationally.
The findings shed new light on China’s evolving approach to external asset allocation and its
broader economic and geopolitical implications.
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