所属栏目:资本市场/衍生证券

Do Implied Volatility Spreads Predict Market Returns in China?The Role of Liquidity Demand
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发布日期:2026年03月29日 上次修订日期:2026年03月29日

摘要

We examine the information content of the call-put implied volatility spread (IVS) of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options. Empirically, the IVS significantly and negatively predicts future SSE50 ETF returns at both weekly and monthly horizons. This predictability is robust both in-sample and out-of-sample, which stands in contrast to prior evidence from the U.S. options market. We explore several potential explanations and show that the IVS is closely linked to the option-cash basis. Its predictability is consistent with the model of Hazelkorn, Moskowitz, and Vasudevan (2023), where the option-cash basis reflects liquidity demand common to both options and underlying equity markets.
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李仲飞; 郝卓凡; 周倜 Do Implied Volatility Spreads Predict Market Returns in China?The Role of Liquidity Demand (2026年03月29日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16663

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