所属栏目:资本市场/市场有效性

摘要

We propose a time-varying framework for tail risk contagion based on conditional higher co-moments (Co-HCM), derived from a DCC-GARCH-MGH model that provides closed-form expressions for dynamic co-moments. Applying this CoHCM approach, we construct tail contagion networks across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) stock markets. Our ffndings indicate that covariance-based metrics underestimate the ex-tent of epidemic transmission, while the CoHCM metrics reveal China’s pivotal role in spreading outbreaks and identify a distinct cluster of core transmission hubs, particularly during the 2015 Chinese stock market crisis. Dynamic contagion further exhibits cross-country heterogeneity that the Southeast Asian markets synchronize tightly with China during crises, while smaller and resource-driven markets display more inter-mittent contagion patterns. These ffndings highlight the importance of higher co-moment dependence for monitoring systemic risk in interconnected emerging markets.
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Wenhui Shi; Wanbo Lu; Zhaojie Huang Tail risk contagion across Belt and Road Initiative stock networks: Result from conditional higher co-moments approach (2026年05月11日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16685.html

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