所属栏目:资本市场/固定收益证券

Financial Guarantee Networks and Credit Risk Premiums: Evidence from a Multi-Layer Network in China's Bond Market
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发布日期:2026年06月22日 上次修订日期:2026年06月22日

摘要

As China's bond market expands rapidly, the complexity of financial guarantee networks and their implications for credit risk have become critical issues in both academic research and financial practice. Utilizing micro-level data from China's credit bond market spanning 2014 to 2024, this study constructs a multi-layer network incorporating bonds, guarantors, and issuing firms to empirically examine the impact of guarantor network centrality on bond credit spreads. The results reveal a significant U-shaped relationship: moderate centrality reduces spreads by bolstering market confidence, whereas excessive centrality increases them due to heightened systemic risk. Mechanism analyses identify systemic risk and information asymmetry as key mediating channels through which centrality affects credit risk premiums. Heterogeneity tests indicate that this U-shaped pattern is more pronounced among state-owned guarantors, real estate firms, and high-risk clusters within the network. Furthermore, both cross-layer connectivity within the multi-layer structure and regional financial development levels significantly moderate the centrality-spread relationship. These findings offer a structural perspective on credit risk pricing in emerging markets and provide valuable policy insights for credit rating system design, guarantee regulation, and systemic risk prevention. International investors could also leverage these findings to better assess systemic risk in interconnected financial markets across emerging economies.
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Xinyi Zhou; Desheng Wu Financial Guarantee Networks and Credit Risk Premiums: Evidence from a Multi-Layer Network in China's Bond Market (2026年06月22日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16761

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