所属栏目:银行与金融机构/金融与宏观经济

The Stability Gap Model: A Structural Measure of Financial Fragility & Its Application in Portfolio Risk Management
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发布日期:2026年08月19日 上次修订日期:2026年08月19日

摘要

Financial crises rarely erupt without warning; they are preceded by long periods of hidden fragility. Yet traditional market indicators such as the VIX capture only realized volatility, offering little foresight. This paper introduces the Stability Gap Model (SGM), developed iteratively from a simple intuition: fragility arises when risk-taking diverges from fundamentals and systemic buffers are insufficient. We trace the evolution of the model from its original formulation, through corrections and extensions, to its present form. The Classic SGM captures instantaneous imbalance, while the Beta SGM incorporates memory of past shocks. Empirical analysis demonstrates that the SGM provided clear early warnings ahead of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2011 Eurozone debt episode, the 2015 China/oil slowdown, and the 2018 tightening cycle, while also trending upward in 2019 before the COVID-19 crash. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates the model's utility in assessing fragility in hedge funds and proposes its application as a universal framework for stability analysis across diverse systems, from corporate finance to supply chains.
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Karm Mansour The Stability Gap Model: A Structural Measure of Financial Fragility & Its Application in Portfolio Risk Management (2026年08月19日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16817.html

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