所属栏目:资本市场/衍生证券

Spot-Based Basis and Basis Momentum in Commodity Futures Markets
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发布日期:2026年08月26日 上次修订日期:2026年08月26日

摘要

This paper revisits two widely studied predictors of commodity futures returns, basis and basis momentum, whose conventional measures using first-nearby futures as proxies for spot prices may limit their ability to capture fundamental spot-market risks. Motivated by this limitation, we construct two spot-based signals from observed spot and futures prices, which are theoretically shown to contain incremental information beyond conventional measures. Using 41 Chinese commodity futures, we find that these signals robustly predict first-nearby contract returns and remain significantly priced in time-series and cross-sectional tests, even after controlling for their conventional counterparts. We then develop a spot-enhanced three-factor model, including the market factor and the two spot-based factors, which consistently outperforms three widely used benchmark models in pricing competing factors and explaining return anomalies.
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ZUDONG LUO; SHAN XUE Spot-Based Basis and Basis Momentum in Commodity Futures Markets (2026年08月26日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16839.html

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