所属栏目:资本市场/衍生证券

Call option pressure and option return predictability: A U-shaped nonlinearity
认领作者 认领作者管理权限
发布日期:2026年08月26日 上次修订日期:2026年08月26日

摘要

This paper constructs a call pressure index (CP) from China's SSE 50 ETF option market and finds a robust U-shaped nonlinear predictability for directional option returns as measured by log returns. The effect reflects that extreme call pressures—whether unusually low (reversal) or high (momentum)—contain information, while moderate levels are dominated by noise trading. Robustness checks using delta-hedged returns confirm that predictability stems primarily from directional exposure rather than volatility dynamics. The predictability is stronger in high-volatility and down-market states and survives controlling for implied skewness, variance risk premium, and other common predictors. A simple timing strategy based on rolling-window forecasts achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.97, which further increases to 2.43 after applying a prediction threshold. A parsimonious volume-based indicator captures unique predictive information beyond complex proxies, offering a feasible path for emerging markets lacking proprietary order flow data.
展开

Wenwen Cai Call option pressure and option return predictability: A U-shaped nonlinearity (2026年08月26日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16840

选择要认领的作者1
身份验证1
确认
取消