所属栏目:资本市场/外汇市场与汇率

摘要

We construct a text-based measure of war-related diplomatic sentiment from 154,185 foreignministry communications across the 15 largest world economies. The daily index tracks military escalations and ceasefires, varies across countries, and predicts newspaper-based geopolitical risk more than the reverse. Adverse Chinese rhetoric foreshadows stronger southbound reallocation into Hong Kong equities and weaker Stock Connect flows; a one-unit decline shifts daily flows by $42.4 million towards outflows, operating through a relative-price channel widening the AH premium rather than onshore declines. In monthly cross-country analyses, only the U.S. shows safe-haven behavior; adverse rhetoric raises Chinese and U.S. trading volume and U.S. volatility.
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Cunyi Yang; Shuchi Zhang; Ioannis Kyriakou; Nikos C. Papapostolou When Words Move Money: Diplomatic Sentiment and International Capital Flows (2026年09月12日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16861

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