所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Macroeconomic Expectations and Expected Returns: Evidence from China
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发布日期:2026年09月22日 上次修订日期:2026年09月22日

摘要

This paper examines whether subjective macroeconomic expectations predict equity risk premia in China. Using professional macro forecasts from the Wind database over 2011- 2023, we construct a composite macroeconomic expectation index via PLS. We find that the index significantly and positively predicts future equity premia both in-sample and out-ofsample, implying a countercyclical equity premium. The predictive power is robust to a wide range of macro-financial controls and delivers economically meaningful gains in portfolio allocation. Further analysis shows that controlling for forecast errors does not attenuate predictability, and the subjective index largely subsumes the information in realized macro variables, suggesting that it captures forward-looking macroeconomic conditions rather than belief bias. Cross-sectional and long-horizon results reinforce this interpretation.
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Guohao Tang; Zhuorui Xie; Hanrui Xu; Yu Jiang Macroeconomic Expectations and Expected Returns: Evidence from China (2026年09月22日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16871

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