所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Linked Firms’Characteristics and Cross-Stock Predictability in China
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发布日期:2026年10月16日 上次修订日期:2026年10月16日

摘要

We examine whether the characteristics of economically linked firms predict stock returns in the Chinese A-share market. We construct two peer-based signals: a peeraverage (PA) signal that aggregates the characteristics of fundamentally similar firms, and a peer-deviation (PD) signal that summarizes a firm’s characteristic deviations from industry-peer averages. PA captures shared fundamental information, whereas PD benchmarks a firm’s relative position against economically comparable peers. Portfolio sorts, factor-spanning tests, and Fama–MacBeth regressions reveal economically meaningful and statistically significant return predictability for both signals, with generally larger portfolio returns among non-state-owned enterprises. Both signals retain significant incremental predictive power after controlling for the full set of own-firm characteristics and flexible machine-learning forecasts based solely on these characteristics. Changes in both signals also predict future earnings, while return predictability is generally stronger among firms receiving less investor attention, consistent with limited-attention-induced underreaction. These findings highlight the distinct informational and benchmarking roles of economic networks and their predictive value beyond firms’ own characteristics.
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杨琳 Linked Firms’Characteristics and Cross-Stock Predictability in China (2026年10月16日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16886.html

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