所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Agentic AI Predicts Stock Returns in Real Time
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发布日期:2026年10月18日 上次修订日期:2026年10月18日

摘要

Can fully agentic artificial intelligence predict equity returns in real time? We build a novel dataset of daily AI-generated attractiveness scores spanning the entire Russell 1000 universe, continuously updated since April 2025. Each trading day, the model freely searches the live internet and produces quantitative scores for every constituent stock before the next market open, eliminating both look-ahead bias and attribution bias. A daily value-weighted portfolio of the 20 highest-ranked stocks earns a Fama-French six-factor alpha of 16.5 basis points per day (41.5% per annum), with an average bid-ask spread of 1.92 basis points. Predictability is sharply asymmetric: the model reliably identifies future outperformers but not future underperformers. The evidence points to stock picking rather than market timing: performance is strongest on down-market days, and the alpha does not come from betting on aggregate market direction. The AI’s reasoning traces help explain this predictability. Alpha is concentrated in traces with richer live-web evidence and stronger analytical structure. In the theme attribution, most active alpha reflects firm selection under an investment lens, not broad theme choice.
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Darcy Pu; Zefeng Chen Agentic AI Predicts Stock Returns in Real Time (2026年10月18日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16892

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