所属栏目:银行与金融机构/政府政策与监管

Macroprudential Spillovers through Production Networks: Employment Adjustment under China's "Three Red Lines" Policy
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发布日期:2026年10月30日 上次修订日期:2026年10月30日

摘要

This paper studies the unintended spillover effects of China's 2020 "Three Red Lines" policy – a macroprudential intervention aimed at deleveraging real estate developers – on employment in the upstream manufacturing firms. Exploiting variation in industries' exposure to the real estate sector via input-output linkages and employing a generalized difference-in-differences (DID) design on panel data of listed manufacturing firms (2017-2022), we find a significant decline in employment among upstream suppliers, while there is no substantial effect on downstream firms. We identify two transmission channels: a demand propagation channel, evidenced by falling sales and inventory overhang, and a balance sheet contagion channel, where liquidity strain is passed upstream via extended payables and a shift to riskier short-term debt. Furthermore, we show that downward nominal wage rigidity shaped the adjustment, as firms resorted to layoffs rather than wage cuts for ordinary workers. From a regional labor market perspective, the employment losses represent a net reduction at the aggregate level, as displaced workers are not absorbed by other local firms in the same city or province. Our study reveals a significant real economic cost of sectoral macroprudential regulation and clarifies how such shocks propagate through production networks and interact with labor market frictions.
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Yanke Dai; Yan Gu; Yangfei Xu Macroprudential Spillovers through Production Networks: Employment Adjustment under China's "Three Red Lines" Policy (2026年10月30日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16938

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