• 详情 The Impact of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions on Corporate Performance - Take Chinese listed companies as examples
    With the development of China's economy, more and more Chinese enterprises are active on the world stage, and cross-border M&A is the most effective and fastest way for enterprises to go abroad and make overseas investments, and it is also an important path for globalization after the enterprises have reached a certain stage of growth. Compared to domestic M&A, cross-border M&A is a more complex economic activity, requiring more factors to be considered and greater risks to be taken, with the slightest misstep often leading to operational difficulties for the acquiring company. It is important to consider whether cross-border M&A can improve business performance, the factors that influence the performance of cross-border M&A, and how to improve the performance of enterprises in cross-border M&A. This study takes 100 cross-border M&A events of Chinese listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen during the period of 2017-2020 as a sample, and on the basis of reviewing the research results of cross-border M&A at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises, from different perspectives, a number of financial indicators are selected to construct comprehensive performance evaluation indicators using factor analysis, and the preliminary analysis shows that after cross-border M&A, the companies with increased performance The preliminary analysis showed that the number of companies whose performance increased after cross-border M&A increased year by year. The impact of industry relevance and transaction equity on M&A performance is not significant; the ratio ofM&A amount to current assets negatively affects firm performance in the year of M&A. Finally, based on the empirical results, relevant policy recommendations are made to encourage better development of private enterprises and improving cross-border M&A performance.
  • 详情 The Stability Gap Model: A Structural Measure of Financial Fragility & Its Application in Portfolio Risk Management
    Financial crises rarely erupt without warning; they are preceded by long periods of hidden fragility. Yet traditional market indicators such as the VIX capture only realized volatility, offering little foresight. This paper introduces the Stability Gap Model (SGM), developed iteratively from a simple intuition: fragility arises when risk-taking diverges from fundamentals and systemic buffers are insufficient. We trace the evolution of the model from its original formulation, through corrections and extensions, to its present form. The Classic SGM captures instantaneous imbalance, while the Beta SGM incorporates memory of past shocks. Empirical analysis demonstrates that the SGM provided clear early warnings ahead of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2011 Eurozone debt episode, the 2015 China/oil slowdown, and the 2018 tightening cycle, while also trending upward in 2019 before the COVID-19 crash. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates the model's utility in assessing fragility in hedge funds and proposes its application as a universal framework for stability analysis across diverse systems, from corporate finance to supply chains.
  • 详情 Small-Scale Mining and the Law: Addressing the "Galamsey" Challenge
    Small scale mining has always been part of life in Ghana, but its illegal form known as galamsey has grown into one of the country’s biggest problems. Galamsey gives work to many people, yet still it destroys rivers, forests and farms, leaving communities struggling to survive. This paper looks at the laws that guide small scale mining in Ghana, from the days of traditional mining, through the colonial period, the Small Scale Gold Mining Law of 1989, and the Minerals and Mining Act, 2006 (Act 703) as amended by Act 995. It explains how weak enforcement, corruption, political interference and the role of foreigners, especially some Chinese nationals, have made the laws less effective. The paper also shows, through recent court cases such as Republic v Fynn and Republic v Domotey and Others, that Ghana’s courts are ready to punish offenders when cases are well presented. The courts have given long prison terms and heavy fines, showing that they are not the weak link in the fight. The real problem is poor enforcement and selective justice, since many foreigners are deported instead of being put on trial. The paper argues that solving the galamsey problem needs strong enforcement, freedom from political interference, the setting up of special environmental courts, and better job opportunities for rural communities. With these steps, Ghana can protect the environment while also supporting its people to make a living in lawful ways.
  • 详情 法定数字货币普惠投放:破解社会供求失衡、畅通经济循环的路径研究
    当今社会最大矛盾是国家法定数字货币供给不足,社会分工无法通过足够的数字货币进行交换,导致有产品卖不出,有需要却没钱支付的怪圈。解决这个问题可以通过给居民按身份证发放法定数字贷币,让社会分工通过数字货币交换,而不是原始的物物交换。发放数字货币不是不劳而获,因为数字货币本身不能吃不能用,要得到需要的东西就需要有付出或对等服务去交换,数字货币底层逻辑是交换的载体并不代表财富,只有满足公平交换的规则,社会才能激发创造力和分工协作,有了交易交换才能带动就业和税收,社会才能稳健有序发展。
  • 详情 止跌不等于回稳:论资产负债表修复中的抵押品约束与 REITs 缓释机制
    本文基于间接融资体系抵押品本位,构建涵盖银行信贷与REITs资产的全口径抵押财富测度框架,利用跨国与城市面板数据开展实证检验。结果显示,抵押品减值对金融风险存在9.7%与24.8%两道临界门槛,跨门槛后冲击强度阶梯式抬升,且呈显著非对称特征,价格止跌不足以推动资产负债表回归稳态。纳入市场摩擦与货币稀释双重约束后,全国层面稳态修复的最低估值缺口约为10.6%-12.1%,三四线城市所需修复幅度明显更高。总量货币、财政与柔性监管三类常规工具仅在短期缓释风险,商用不动产证券化可在同等跌幅下将系统性风险降低24%-27%,但无法完全替代抵押品估值修复。本文为四部门资产负债表修复与不动产证券化制度设计提供了量化参考。
  • 详情 A Study of the Microdynamics of Early Childhood Learning
    This paper investigates the weekly evolution of child skills as measured by unique data from a widely-emulated early childhood home-visiting program developed in Jamaica, adapted to rural China, and applied in different versions worldwide. The design of the study avoids problems of endogeneity of inputs and lack of truly comparable measures of skills across children that plague previous econometric studies of child development. Skills that are nominally classified as the same, in fact, do not appear to share a common unit scale across levels. They are produced by skill-specific, lifecycle-stage-specific technologies. We formulate and estimate a new dynamic stochastic skill production model for multiple skills that is consistent with the evidence. We quantify the dynamics of early life learning. The model explains the “fadeout” of measures of learning by the emergence of new skills not properly measured. We investigate the role of ability in learning. We find important differences in learning patterns between boys and girls.
  • 详情 消费下行三倍冲击:安全垫阈值、抵押品约束与消费 非对称突变
    城镇居民收入持续正增长,非必需消费增速却从高位大幅回落,2022年起更是逼近零增长。这一“收入稳、消费停”的矛盾格局,暴露出现行消费理论对中国居民行为的结构性盲区。本文从抵押品约束视角切入,构建“抵押品单向派生安全垫与杠杆率——双指标双向反馈——消费非对称突变”的完整因果链条。研究发现:抵押品是安全垫与杠杆率的单向底层驱动因素,反向不存在长期因果关系;双指标无固定线性相关,上行周期同向变动,下行周期反向变动,突破阈值后形成共振放大。最核心的发现是:下行阶段对非必需消费的抑制力度是上行提振的3.09倍,其中2.25倍源于损失厌恶,0.84倍来自信贷刚性收缩与宏观负螺旋。安全垫指数跌破100、居民杠杆率突破45%两条阈值击穿后,消费抑制效应非线性跳升,叠加下跌加速度、持续时长、跌幅深度、外部冲击与偿债压力五层因素,冲击强度进一步逐级放大。