随着监管部门与社会各界对于企业的ESG表现日益关注，本文考察拟上市企业（特别是IPO预期成功率较低的企业）是否有动机通过强化其ESG表现，从而增强其IPO成功概率。本文基于大语言模型对拟上市公司招股说明书所呈现的ESG绩效进行量化评估，并系统考察企业IPO预期成功率、招股说明书ESG绩效与IPO最终成功率之间的互动关系。研究发现：（1）企业IPO预期成功率越低，该企业越可能在其招股说明书中展现出较佳的ESG绩效；（2）企业的ESG绩效强化行为显著提升了其IPO通过概率。这一效应在证券监管部门更为关注企业社会责任时以及在高污染行业中更为显著。进一步分析表明，对于IPO预期成功率较低的企业，其招股说明书中的ESG表现无法有效预测其上市后的ESG绩效，这表明监管部门仍需警惕此类企业“漂绿”上市的风险。本文研究结论对于证券监管部门和投资者都具有重要的决策参考价值。

Using a novel and dynamic measure of fund-level herding that captures the tendency of a fund manager to imitate the trading decisions of the institutional crowd based on a sample of 3490 mutual funds in China for 21 years between 2003 and 2023, we find that funds with higher herding tendencies face significantly elevated delisting risks. Additionally, herding behavior is associated with shorter fund lifespans, smaller asset bases, and higher portfolio manager turnover rates. These results remain robust after employing a battery of methods to address endogeneity concerns. Collectively, our study demonstrates that herding substantially amplifies funds’ running risks.

Mutual funds create liquidity for investors by issuing demandable equity shares while holding illiquid securities. We study the implications of this liquidity creation by examining frequent trading suspensions in China, which temporarily eliminate market liquidity in affected stocks. These suspensions cause significant mispricing of mutual funds due to inaccurate valuations of their illiquid holdings. We find that investors actively acquire information about suspended stocks held by mutual funds, driving flows into underpriced funds. This information is subsequently incorporated into stock prices when trading resumes. Our findings suggest that mutual fund liquidity creation stimulates information acquisition about illiquid, information-sensitive assets.

传统保险经济学基于理性人假设，认为保险消费者能够做出符合自身利益最大化的理性决策。然而，大量现实观察与实证研究表明，保险决策中存在诸多系统性偏差，这些偏差无法用传统理论解释。本研究从行为保险学视角出发，系统探讨保险决策中的主要心理偏差及其形成机制，并在此基础上构建行为干预的理论框架与实施路径。研究发现，保险决策中的心理偏差可分为认知偏差（如可得性启发、代表性启发、锚定效应）、情感偏差（如损失厌恶、模糊厌恶、后悔厌恶）和社会偏差（如从众行为、羊群效应）三类，这些偏差通过影响风险感知、概率判断和效用评估等环节，导致投保不足、过度投保、产品选择错误、续保率低等市场失灵现象。研究进一步提出，行为干预应从供给端（产品设计优化、信息披露改革、默认选项设置）、需求端（保险素养教育、决策辅助工具、反馈机制设计）和监管端（行为洞察应用、消费者保护强化、干预效果评估）三个维度系统推进。本研究为优化保险市场运行、提升消费者福祉、完善保险监管提供了行为科学视角的理论支撑与实践参考。

The Fibonacci sequence is created by the recurrence of Fn = Fn−1 + Fn−2 ( n ≥ 2; F0 = 0; F1=1) from which the nearly 38.2% or 61.8% is derived for revenue increase or decrease. It has been increasingly and widely studied in research on options market trading. The high volatility of the options market makes the option premium greatly affected by the growing emotional involvement of buyers and sellers before the position is closed. The efficient affective computing and measures may provide traders a rough guide to working out the route to a profit. Based on the practical application of Fibonacci-like sequence and affective computing of option trading data in China SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) 50ETF options, we concluded that profit statistically changes around 38.2% or 61.8% increase line once call options flood in the market and bring the rapid price acceleration. On the contrary, 38.2% or 61.8% is considered another temporary decrease line when the price quickly falls from the balance point of price under the influence of huge put options. The mixed emotions of greed and fear make the option premium commonly fluctuate in cycles. The Fibonacci-like wavelet analysis is only one of the options volatility strategies, and it does not change the nature of market uncertainty.

人口老龄化是我国今后相当长一个时期的基本国情，作为《宪法》第四十五条所规定的“基本公共服务”内涵的应有延伸，人居环境的适老化改造事关老年人“老有所居、居有所安”的基本民生保障，也是实现老年人居家养老与医疗照护的重要基础。但我国《民法典》关于建筑物区分所有权治理秩序的规定尚不翔实，实践中既有建筑共有部分的适老化改造囿于决策程序僵局、改造费用规范性指引不足、不利影响补偿机制缺失等多重困境，无法适恰既有区分所有建筑物共有部分的适老化改造需求。原居养老与居家安全危机之间的对立矛盾亟需整合共有规则要素，通过统筹老旧小区的专有与共有治理效能、功能提升与空间协调、利用现状与未来需求三对交互关系，形成体系化的治理机制设计，以积极应对人口老龄化国家战略，破除老年人群体居住保障的低水平均衡陷阱。

In highly competitive product markets, firms can internalize other firms’ resources through interfirm collaboration. Using a longitudinal dataset on strategic alliances among private and public firms in Europe, this study examines how industry competition induced by international trade inflows affects the interfirm competitive and cooperative dynamics. We document that industry-level competition shocks, caused by Chinese import penetration, are a key driver in shaping corporate alliances. Notably, firms with constrained cash flow but ample cash reserves are more likely to form alliances in industries experiencing competition shocks. After these alliances, we observe improvements in cash flow growth and investment, with this positive impact of interfirm collaboration being more pronounced among private firms. These findings suggest that strategic alliances are crucial tools for restructuring following international trade inflows, particularly among small, private enterprises.

We examine how Chinese mutual funds react to superstitious beliefs about bad luck during one’s zodiac year, which occurs on a 12-year cycle around a person’s birth year. Funds decrease their holdings of zodiac stocks, non-state-owned enterprises in the zodiac years of their chairperson, and profit more from trading zodiac stocks than from trading other stocks. This pattern is more pronounced in firms with lower investor awareness and higher liquidity, and for fund managers with higher past ability, indicating that fund managers trade in anticipation of the negative market reaction towards zodiac stocks.

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本文基于互联网企业价值评估的背景，重点探讨一种常用估值方法——相对估值法（Relative Valuation），并以阿里巴巴集团（Alibaba）为实证对象首先，文章回顾了互联网企业估值的特殊性与挑战；其次，介绍了相对估值法的理论基础、常用指标（如市盈率P/E、市净率P/B、市销率P/S、EV/EBITDA 等）及其优缺点；再次，从互联网企业特征出发，分析该方法在阿里巴巴所处环境中的适用性及限制。然后，结合阿里巴巴最新财报数据（截至FY 2024 期）整理公司基本资料、选取可比公司、计算关键估值指标，进而得出对阿里巴巴的估值区间与市场价值对比。最后，基于实证结果，从估值结果合理性、影响因素（如业务结构、成长预期、市场情绪）以及方法优化建议三个维度展开讨论。研究发现：对于快速成长、业务多元的互联网企业而言，虽相对估值法具备便捷性与可比性优势，但也易受到可比公司选取不当、成长预期偏差及无形资产难以量化等影响。论文建议在实际应用中，应辅以折现模型（DCF）等方法，并注意调整估值倍率以反映公司成长性与风险特征。本文的研究可为互联网企业估值提供一种实务参考，也为资产评估的教学与研究提供新的案例视角。