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  • 详情 IPO Lottery, Mutual Fund Performance, and Market Stability
    This paper examines how profits from mutual funds’ participation in initial public offerings (IPOs) shape fund performance, investor flows, and market stability in China. Using comprehensive fund–IPO matched data from 2016 to 2023, we decompose fund returns into an IPO-lottery component and residual performance. At the aggregate level, IPO allocations add 2.05% to annualized excess returns; net of IPOs, excess return is −0.35% per year. At the individual level, the contribution of IPO profits varies substantially across funds and is most pronounced among mid-sized funds, inflating perceived managerial skill. Funds with higher IPO-driven gains attract greater inflows despite the absence of performance persistence, leading to capital misallocation. At the market level, IPO-profit-induced trading (PIT) predicts short horizon price run-ups that dissipate and reverse over subsequent months, while raising both total and idiosyncratic volatility. Overall, IPO profits temporarily enhance reported performance but erode market stability by propagating non-fundamental shocks through secondary markets.
  • 详情 Do Employees Respond to Corporate ESG Misconduct in an Emerging Market? Evidence from China
    This paper examines whether employees avoid firms that commit environmental, social and governance (ESG) misconduct in China where ESG norms are weak. We find that the number of employees grows slower when firms have more ESG incidents after accounting for performance, risk, corporate governance, and time-invariant firm characteristics. The result is mostly attributable to social incidents and incidents that affect China, better educated knowledge workers, and high tech and non-labor-intensive industries, and is unlikely to be caused by layoffs. Overall, workers with better job fluidity respond to incidents that affect them personally.
  • 详情 Auctions vs Negotiations under Corruption: Evidence from Land Sales in China
    This study investigates whether corruption differentially affects contracting through auctions and negotiations. Using data on Chinese land-market transactions, where corruption is known to be present, we first show that, on average, it exerts similar effects on transactions carried out via auctions and negotiation. However, this finding masks important heterogeneity – auctions featuring healthy competition are less affected by corruption, and significantly less so than negotiation. We then develop a simple model of bidding under the possibility of corruption that rationalizes our findings.
  • 详情 Is There an Intraday Momentum Effect in Commodity Futures and Options: Evidence from the Chinese Market
    Based on high-frequency data of China's commodity market from 2017 to 2022, this article examines the intraday momentum effect. The results indicate that China's commodity futures and options have significant intraday reversal effects, and the overnight opening factor and opening to last half hour factor are more significant. These effects are driven, in part, by liquidity factors. This trend aligns with market makers' behavior, passively accepting orders during low liquidity and actively closing positions amid high liquidity. Furthermore, our examination of cross-predictive ability shows strong futures-to-options predictability, while the reverse is weaker. We posit options traders' Vega hedging as a key factor in this phenomenon, our study finds futures volatility changes can predict options’ return.
  • 详情 Regulating Emissions Data Quality, Cost, and Intergovernmental Relations in China's National Emissions Trading Scheme
    Emissions data collection and management are crucial to operationalizing an emissions trading scheme (ETS). Regulators need high-quality data to allocate emissions allowances and monitor compliance. However, collecting such data can be costly, challenging various actors. Emitters may misreport data, weighing the cost against their interest, while governments may struggle with limited resources in managing compliance. Third-party verification is a solution but tends to be ineffectual and causes new problems unless with sufficient oversight and support. This quality-cost dilemma becomes even more complex in multi-level ETSs, as in China’s national ETS (NETS). Despite increased regulatory efforts to address data challenges, there remains a lack of in-depth legal analysis on the relationship between data quality and cost. This Article establishes a three-element analytical framework—data quality, cost concerns, and intergovernmental relations in data management—to shed light on the nuances of data regulation. Using China’s NETS as a case study, we gain a deeper understanding of the three elements in a specific jurisdiction and the legal institutions, practices, and challenges involved. Governments, emitters, and third-party verifiers each have unique roles and limitations in this process. We suggest legal and regulatory strategies for finding solutions. Our actor-centered analytical model and practical recommendations for the NETS can serve as a valuable guide for jurisdictions facing similar data challenges.
  • 详情 Banking Integration and Capital Misallocation: Evidence from China
    Using the staggered intercity but within-province deregulation of local banks in China as exogenous variations, we evaluate the effect of banking integration across geographical segmentation on capital misallocation. Based on an administrative data set comprehensively covering Chinese manufacturing firms, we find that for firms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK), the integration increases physical capital by 19.3%, and reduces MRPK by 33.1% relative to low MRPK ffrms. Our findings are more pronounced for non-statedowned firms and firms with higher exposure to integrated banks. Integration also significantly increases the responsiveness of firms’ investments to deposit shock on other cities within the same province.