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  • 详情 Dynamic Stock Market Integration and Financial Crisis: the Case of China, Japan, and Korea
    This study examines the relationships between three Northeast Asian stock markets of China, Japan, and Korea during the period between January 1, 2000 and September 30, 2010, with particular attention placed on the global financial crisis period. The findings of this study are as follows. Firstly, China is influenced more by regional markets rather than the global market. On the other hand, Japan is influenced more by the global market rather than regional markets. Korea has the most balanced level of integration between the regional and global markets. Secondly, a portfolio created through an integrated market in the region would result in a significant decline in the unsystematic risk of each country, benefiting both the investor and local economies. Thirdly, the recent global financial crisis has caused a shift in the pattern of integration in the region. All three countries show a higher level of integration with the global market after the financial crisis. Finally, for China, the global market risk has become even greater than the domestic unsystematic risk since 2010. Overall result suggests that the degree of integration among countries tends to change over time, especially around periods marked by financial crisis and there is a diversification benefit of integrated regional market.
  • 详情 The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Forecast Ability of Macro Economy in China
    The forecast ability of term structure is tested in this paper with the data of interbank treasury yield curve of Chinabond. The results show that there are positive relationships between term structure and the changes of future macro economy, i.e. GDP, consumption, production and inflation, which is similar with the studies of the developed countries. The term structure can predict the mid-term economic growth well, even considering the effects of monetary policy and another leading indicator. With the regression results, the out-of-sample predictions show a lower and decreasing growth rate in the next two years, implying greater challenges to the policy-makers.
  • 详情 ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S ECONOMY SYSTEM FAILURE
    Volume of real estate market in some China’s large cities decreased sharply in 2010. Based on rational reconstruction of some basic economic thought and analytical narrative of the real estate price bubble ,I conclude that it should be contributed to a big gap between demand and supply, and financial crisis would break out in the coming few month in China. I make proposal that government should be reducing state-owned share.
  • 详情 Regional economic development, strategic investors, and efficiency in Chinese city commercial banks
    We investigate the impact of strategic investors on bank efficiency in the context of regional economic development. The data on Chinese city commercial banks operating regionally are well-suited for the study. Findings suggest that strategic investors significantly increase efficiency in Chinese city commercial banks; the impact of strategic investors on the efficiency of Chinese city commercial banks is negatively correlated to the level of regional economic development. The negative correlation of the impact of strategic investors on Chinese city commercial banks’ efficiency with regional economic development may be explained by the mix of the local official promotion system and the city commercial banks’ governance structure.
  • 详情 Ownership Structure and the Value of Excess Cash: Evidence from China
    We examine the impact of corporate ownership structure on the value of excess cash in Chinese listed firms. We find that the value of excess cash is less in firms controlled by private investors than in those firms controlled by the government. One dollar of excess cash is valued a $0.36 in firms controlled by private investors while it rises to $0.42 in firms controlled by the government. Furthermore, we show that the expropriation of the controlling shareholders is significantly and positively related with the previous year’s excess cash in firms controlled by private investors while it is insignificant in firms controlled by the government. These findings are consistent with the view that private controlling shareholders have the greater ability to extract private benefit in cash holdings.
  • 详情 The Effects of Policy Reversals: A Natural Experiment from Financial Market Liberalization in China
    What are the effects of policy reversals which were initiated by the US bureaucracy in response to the 2008 global financial crisis? Answering this question is challenging because US capital markets are relatively mature and policy reversals are far and in between in recent years. Specifically, the challenges include the one-time nature of these US policy reversals, the confounding effects of many programs targeting interrelated segments of the capital markets at the same time as well as possible endogeneity issues. China, on the other hand, offers a natural experiment to study the effects of policy reversals. In the last three decades, the Chinese government has initiated many policy changes to liberalize the capital markets and some of these have been reversed several times. Using hand-collected data of policy reversals targeting the Chinese stock markets from 1994 through 2009, we are able to address the first two challenges. To resolve any endogeneity issue, we focus on the impact of such policy reversals (targeted at the Chinese stock markets) on the Chinese repo markets, which trade market-driven interest rates. We find that the Chinese policy reversals are indeed effective in reducing the term spread, the volatility of the interest rate, and the volatility of the term spread. Our results suggest that the policy risk is systematically priced in financial securities, implying that policy makers can rely on financial market indicators to objectively evaluate their policy decisions.
  • 详情 The Effects of Policy Reversals: A Natural Experiment from Financial Market Liberalization in China
    What are the effects of policy reversals which were initiated by the US bureaucracy in response to the 2008 global financial crisis? Answering this question is challenging because US capital markets are relatively mature and policy reversals are far and in between in recent years. Specifically, the challenges include the one-time nature of these US policy reversals, the confounding effects of many programs targeting interrelated segments of the capital markets at the same time as well as possible endogeneity issues. China, on the other hand, offers a natural experiment to study the effects of policy reversals. In the last three decades, the Chinese government has initiated many policy changes to liberalize the capital markets and some of these have been reversed several times. Using hand-collected data of policy reversals targeting the Chinese stock markets from 1994 through 2009, we are able to address the first two challenges. To resolve any endogeneity issue, we focus on the impact of such policy reversals (targeted at the Chinese stock markets) on the Chinese repo markets, which trade market-driven interest rates. We find that the Chinese policy reversals are indeed effective in reducing the term spread, the volatility of the interest rate, and the volatility of the term spread. Our results suggest that the policy risk is systematically priced in financial securities, implying that policy makers can rely on financial market indicators to objectively evaluate their policy decisions.
  • 详情 Does Banking Competition Alleviate or Worsen Credit Constraints Faced by Small and Medium Enterprises?
    Banking competition may enhance or hinder the financing of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Using a survey on the financing of China’s SMEs combined with detailed bank branch information, we investigate how concentration in the local banking market affects the availability of credit. It is found that lower market concentration alleviates financing constraints. The un-concentrated presence of joint stock banks has a larger effect on alleviating credit constraints, while the presence of state-owned banks has a smaller effect, than the presence of city commercial banks.
  • 详情 Evidence on the Endogenous Entry of Bidders in Land Auctions
    I use land auction data in Taipei City and in Taipei County to test Sherman’s (2005) information production theory. Results show that bidders in Taipei City (a core metropolitan area) and those in Taipei County (a suburb) have different bidding behavior. I find that bids in Taipei City’s land auctions are generally consistent with the predictions of auction theory for informed bidders. They tend to expend resources to collect information and shave their bids optimally. However, bids in Taipei County exhibit uninformed and overbidding behavior.
  • 详情 The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Estate Price Growth in China
    Using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2009:Q4 and monthly data from July 2005 to February 2010, this paper examines the impact of key monetary policy variables, including long- term benchmark bank loan rate, money supply growth, and mortgage credit policy indicator, on the real estate price growth dynamics in China. Empirical results consistently demonstrate that lower interest rate, faster money supply growth and loosening mortgage down payment requirement tend to accelerate the subsequent home price growth, and vice versa. These results suggest that Chinese monetary policy actions are the key driving forces behind the change of real estate price growth in China. We also show that hot money flow does not have significant impact on the change of home price growth after controlling for the money supply growth. Finally, a bullish stock market tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth.