Trading

  • 详情 The Repurchase Effect and Asset Prices
    Investors’ prior experiences with a stock substantially affect their willingness to repurchase it. This paper explores the repurchase effect, a psychological bias in which investors are reluctant to repurchase stocks that have appreciated after a prior sale. To quantify this bias, we develop a novel stock-level measure, termed Repur, and investigate its implications for cross-sectional asset pricing. Our findings show that stocks with higher Repur tend to experience reduced future buying pressure from investors, which in turn results in lower subsequent returns. Economically, long-short portfolios based on Repur yield annualized abnormal returns exceeding 23% for equal-weighted and 11% for value-weighted risk-adjusted returns. Further analyses show that the pricing effect of Repur is more pronounced following periods of high investor sentiment, for stocks with greater arbitrage constraints, and for firms with smaller investor bases. Out-of-sample evidence from China confirms the significant pricing impact of the repurchase effect.
  • 详情 The Liquidity Risk Channel of the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Evidence from China
    This study integrates microstructure theory with asset pricing to investigates how the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) puzzle operates through specialized liquidity risk channels in China’s A-shares market. We employ intraday transactions data to perform a novel decomposition of liquidity into its variable (informational) and fixed (transitory) components. We show that the anomalous negative relationship between IVOL and future returns emerges from the intricate interaction of liquidity risk exposure, information and arbitrage constraints, and measurement biases. Specifically, the variable component tied to informed trading and adverse selection exposes high-IVOL stocks to greater arbitrage risk during liquidity shocks, while the fixed component exacerbates their vulnerability to short-term market-making cost fluctuations. Our results reveal that the IVOL puzzle is not a statistical artifact but a rational pricing phenomenon driven by omitted liquidity risk, mediated by the country’s unique institutional environment and monetary conditions.
  • 详情 Exploring the Cost of Carry in Chinese Energy Futures: Does it Interact with the Energy Stock Market?
    The increasing institutional participation and deepening integration of physical trading and financial operations in commodity markets have elevated the interconnectedness of energy futures and equity markets to prominence in both scholarly discourse and industry analysis. Employing the Nelson-Siegel framework and Fama-French factor model, this study examines the dynamic relationships between energy futures holding cost variations and equity returns across coal and oil sectors. Our analysis yields three principal findings: First, the Fama-French three-factor model exhibits robust explanatory power in China's energy sector equity market, revealing significant statistical relationships between holding cost curve parameters—level, slope, and curvature—and industry excess returns. Second, holding cost variations manifest substantial heterogeneity in their impact on stock returns across coal and oil sectors. Third, carrying cost components demonstrate dominance over shock transmission effects in explaining industry stock return volatility, indicating complex, asymmetric interaction mechanisms between futures and equity markets. Drawing from these empirical results, we advance targeted policy prescriptions addressing futures market architecture and financial stability.
  • 详情 Unleashing new-quality productive forces: Reconsidering the impact of data-factor marketization
    Data-factor marketization (DFM) serves as a critical driver for cultivating manufacturing-enterprise new-quality productive forces (ME-NQPF), fundamentally supporting China's transition toward high-quality economic development. Integrating matched panel data from A-share listed Chinese manufacturing firms (2011–2022) with the staggered establishment of regional data trading platforms as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) framework to identify the causal impact of DFM on ME-NQPF. Empirical results demonstrate that DFM significantly enhances ME-NQPF, a finding that remains robust across alternative specifications and endogeneity treatments. Mechanism analysis identifies enterprise digital transformation as a pivotal mediator in this relationship, while competitive intensity is found to positively moderate the productivity gains from data marketization. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that these effects are most pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, technology-intensive sectors, and firms situated in China's eastern and central regions. These findings suggest that institutionalizing data-factor markets and accelerating digital integration are effective mechanisms for optimizing resource allocation and sustaining advanced industrial productivity.
  • 详情 Mean Reversion in Trading Volume and Informational Efficiency: Evidence from China's Stock Market
    This study examines the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume in China’s A-share market, with a focus on the speed at which abnormal surges dissipate. We compare two competing hypotheses: the stealth-trading hypothesis, where persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed traders, and the informational-efficiency hypothesis, which interprets faster reversion as a sign of efficient information absorption. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate the reversion speed for over 3,000 stocks and link it to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is strongly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks classified as stationary. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger size, higher analyst coverage, lower volatility, and greater liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after the 2006 IFRS reform but declined following Stock Connect, suggesting that stock market policies can influence informational efficiency. Our OU-based methodology offers a simple, observable proxy for monitoring how quickly markets process information. These results position trading volume as a core variable in market microstructure research and policy evaluation.
  • 详情 Informative salient signal loss and stock return volatility
    We investigate how the loss of informative salient signals in financial markets influences stock return volatility, using the 2024 intraday disclosure reform of the mainland China-Hong Kong Stock Connect program as a natural experiment. The reform eliminated the real-time disclosure of northbound capital (NC) flows on trading platforms, rendering NC trading information invisible to Chinese investors during market hours. We find that the removal of NC signals induces increased investor belief dispersion and intensifies informed trading, thereby amplifying intraday volatility in NC-eligible stocks. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced for stocks with higher investor attention, indicating that attentive investors suffer stronger anchor loss when NC signals disappear. In contrast, lottery-type stocks and stocks with alternative NC trading clues exhibit weaker volatility responses, since the presence of strong alternative signals reduces the effect of NC signal loss. These findings highlight the informational role of insightful salient signals in stabilizing stock returns.
  • 详情 Automated Trading System for Straddle-Option Based on Deep Q-Learning
    Straddle Option is a financial trading tool that explores volatility premiums in high-volatility markets without predicting price direction. Although deep reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful approach to trading automation in financial markets, existing work mostly focused on predicting price trends and making trading decisions by combining multidimensional datasets like blogs and videos, which led to high computational costs and unstable performance in high-volatility markets. To tackle this challenge, we develop automated straddle option trading based on reinforcement learning and attention mechanisms to handle unpredictability in high-volatility markets. Firstly, we leverage the attention mechanisms in Transformer DDQN through both self-attention with time series data and channel attention with multi-cycle information. Secondly, a novel reward function considering excess earnings is designed to focus on long-term profits and neglect short-term losses over a stop line. Thirdly, we identify the resistance levels to provide reference information when great uncertainty in price movements occurs with intensified battle between the buyers and sellers. Through extensive experiments on the Chinese stock, Brent crude oil, and Bitcoin markets, our attention-based Transformer-DDQN model exhibits the lowest maximum drawdown across all markets, and outperforms other models by 92.5% in terms of the average return excluding the crude oil market due to relatively low fluctuation.
  • 详情 The More You See, The Less You Agree: Corporate Transparency and Disagreement
    Traditional information asymmetry theories suggest that greater corporate transparency should reduce investor disagreement. Using Chinese mutual fund holdings, we document the opposite pattern: transparency amplifies disagreement among institutional investors. Mechanism tests show that transparency discourages herding while intensifying private information acquisition among fund managers. The effect is stronger for growth-oriented and high-skill funds, and during periods of elevated market sentiment, and among firms with lower credibility, excessive disclosure frequency, and greater investor attention. Further analysis indicates that this transparency-induced disagreement stems from informed trading rather than noise, thereby enhancing price informativeness and market efficiency. Overall, the evidence reveals the dual nature of transparency as both an informational input and a behavioral catalyst that increases disagreement in financial markets.
  • 详情 Reversion Speed in Trading Volume as a Proxy for Informational Efficiency: A Case Study of China
    This study investigates the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume, using China’s A-share market as a representative setting characterized by dispersed retail investors, frequent public disclosures, and active policy interventions. We compare two competing interpretations:the stealth-trading hypothesis, in which persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed investors, and the informational efficiency hypothesis, which links faster volume reversion to more effective information processing. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate reversion speeds for over 3,000 stocks and relate these to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is broadly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks exhibiting stationarity. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger firm size, greater analyst coverage, lower volatility, and higher liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after accounting reforms but declined following capital access liberalization, suggesting that regulatory policy can both enhance and impair informational efficiency. These findings position reversion speed as an observable proxy for market responsiveness and highlight trading volume as a central variable in empirical market microstructure research.
  • 详情 Learning, Price Discovery, and Macroeconomic Announcements
    We examine price discovery after irregularly scheduled macroeconomic announce-ments. Exploiting time variation in Chinese macro announcements released outside regular trading hours, this paper isolates the role of elapsed non-trading time in facilitating investor learning and price discovery upon market reopening. We show that longer non-trading intervals generate more efficient post-announcement price discovery, reduce information asymmetry, and diminish subsequent intraday return reversals. The mechanism operates through enhanced retail investor learning: during non-trading hours, retail investors actively acquire information, subsequently trade more aggressively, earn higher profits, and face reduced informational disadvantages at market opening. Our findings highlight that retail investor learning during non-trading hours levels the informational playing field among heterogeneous investors and improves price quality around irregularly timed macroeconomic announcements. These results have broader implications for emerging markets, which similarly feature irregular announcement timing and large populations of uninformed retail investors.