Black-Scholes

  • 详情 Is warrant really a derivative? Evidence from the Chinese warrant market
    This paper first studies the Chinese warrant market that has been developing since August 2005. Empirical evidence shows that the market prices of warrants are much higher systematically than the Black-Scholes prices with historical volatility. The prices of a warrant and its underlying asset do not support the monotonicity, perfect correlation and option redundancy properties. The cumulated delta-hedged gains for almost all expired warrants are negative. The negative gains are mainly driven by the volatility risk, and the trading values of the warrants for puts and the market risk for calls. The investors are trading some other risks in addition to the underlying risk.
  • 详情 Is Warrant Really a Derivative? Evidence from the Chinese Warrant Market
    China launched her warrant market in August 2005 in the split share structure reform of listed companies. As up to now, equity trading on margin and short-sale of any form are still prohibited in China. This warrant market enables investors to trade on information that otherwise might be prohibitively expensive to trade on. The Chinese warrant market created top trading volume and turnover with only a handful of different warrants traded. This paper first studies the Chinese warrant market. Empirical evidence shows that the market prices of warrants are much higher systematically than the Black-Scholes prices with historical volatility. Moreover, the paper documents ample evidence that the one-dimensional diffusion model does not apply well in the Chinese warrant market. The prices of a warrant and its underlying asset do not support the monotonicity, perfect correlation and option redundancy properties. The paper also studies the cumulated gains of a delta-hedged warrant portfolio. In the Chinese warrant market, the cumulated delta-hedged gains for almost all expired warrants are negative. The negative gains are mainly driven by the volatility risk, and the trading values of the warrants for puts and the market risk for calls. The investors are trading some other risks in addition to the underlying risk.
  • 详情 可转债定价的蒙特卡罗模拟方法与误差分析
    可转债的定价问题是学术界和实务界都关心的问题。本文在考虑行权策略的基础上,采用最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟(LSMC)对沪深证券市场中交易的可转债进行定价分析。结果表明, 该方法确定的价格略低于市场价格, 模型价格与市场价格误差较小, 且不具有系统性。这与 Black-Scholes 等传统模型系统性高估可转债的价格形成了鲜明对比。另外,最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟的稳定性要优于 Black-Scholes 模型,尤其是在转股价格调整的时候更是如此。可转债是否处于转股期对于可转债价格的敏感性以及定价误差有一定影响。我们认为,可转债市场价格偏高既与投资者的预期有关,也与市场缺乏套利机制有关。
  • 详情 Levy分布与欧式期权定价——方法与评判检验
    本文比较了基于Levy 过程的权证价格、基于Black-Scholes 公式的权证价格和权证市场价格,发现假设股票收益率服从NIG分布为权证定价,其效果与直接应用Black-Scholes公式的效果差别不是很大。与国际经验相比,在沪深证券市场确实存在部分权证市场价格异常,权证的理论价格与市场价格偏差很大,这种偏差不能简单解释为Black-Scholes公式的不适用。由于过于严格的套利交易限,套利的成本也很高,扩大了投机交易的空间,使得部分权证理论价格与市场价格长期偏离,少数投资者交易非常频繁,权证交易主要是市场中少数大户进行的,权证交易量金额、交易价格并不反映多数投资者的态度。
  • 详情 兼并与收购的期权定价方法
    本文针对兼并与收购的传统与其他定价方法的优缺点进行分析,在结合协同效应评估与期权定价的基础上,提出了一种新的定价思路,用于解决其他方法中假设条件过多,教难量化等问题
  • 详情 我国可转换债券特点及定价方法分析
    可转债由于其结构复杂,所以其价格很难用精确的数学公式来描述。传统的Black-Scholes 期权定价公式与市价有较大差异,所以本文在对中国可转债市场进行了大量的考证后,总结出了根据市场所表现出的特点设计更简单实用的公式,一种方法是在常规定价公式上作简化和替代处理;另一种方法是因素分析法。最后对实际的可转债进行了分析和定价。
  • 详情 A Closer Look at Black-Scholes Option Thetas
    This paper investigates Black-Scholes call and put option thetas, and derives upper- and lower-bounds for thetas as a function of underlying asset value. It is well known that the maximum time premium of an option occurs when the value of the underlying asset equals the exercise price. However, we show that the maximum option theta does not occur at that point, but instead occurs when the underlying asset’s value is somewhat above the exercise price. We also show that option theta is not monotonic in any of the parameters in the Black-Scholes option-pricing model, including time to maturity. Finally, we explain why the implications of these findings are especially important for trading and hedging strategies that are affected by the decay in an option’s time premium.