Bounded rationality

  • 详情 Bounded Rational Bidding Strategy of Genco in Electricity Spot Market Based on Prospect Theory and Distributional Reinforcement Learning
    With the increasing penetration of renewable energy (RE) in power systems, the electricity spot market has become increasingly uncertain, presenting significant challenges for generation companies (GenCos) in formulating effective bidding strategies. Most existing studies assume that GenCos act as perfectly rational decision makers, overlooking the impact of irrational bidding behaviors in uncertain market environments. To address this limitation, we incorporate prospect theory to model the decision-making process of bounded rational GenCos operating under risk. A bilevel stochastic model is developed to simulate strategic bidding in the spot market. In addition, a distributional re-inforcement learning algorithm is proposed to tackle the decision-making challenges faced by bounded rational GenCos with risk considerations. The proposed model and algorithm are validated through simulations using a 27-bus system from a region in eastern China. The results demonstrate that the algorithm effectively captures market uncertainties and learns the distribution of GenCo’s profits. Furthermore, simulated bidding strategies for various types of GenCos highlight the applicability of prospect theory to describe bounded rational decision-making behavior in electricity markets.
  • 详情 Collective Monitoring and Investment Illiquidity in Private-Equity Buyouts
    This paper extends Lerner and Schoar’s (2004) argument on illiquidity puzzle of private equity funds. We examine the roles that investment illiquidity, along with bounded rationality and rent-seeking behavior, plays in private-equity buyouts. Collectively, investors employ club deals to screen out fund managers who might misuse discretionary rights to engage buyout deals. A club deal is launched by a group of private equity firms that pool their assets together, make a joint bid for a buyout target, and monitor the buyout processes collectively. Thus, this paper aims at clarifying whether or not such discretionary rights improve the choice of buyout target by, as well as the performance of private equity funds. We found that the performance of buyout funds persisted and affected the choice of the club deal as the major monitoring mechanism. This paper contributes to our understandings of investment behavior in private equity buyouts as follows. First, the performance of buyout funds has improved for at least two time periods between 1999 and mid-2007. The phenomenon that fund performance affects the choice of club deals is consistent across a variety of private equity funds, such as buyout, venture, growth, and mezzanine funds. Moreover, risk preference does not affect choice of club deals directly; instead, it has a moderating effect on choice of club deals through its interaction with the location of reference point for risk aversion. Finally, both fund size and fund sequence have U-shaped relations to the choice of club deals, while deal value of buyouts is related positively to the choice of club deals.