详情
Global Production Networks and Asset Prices
We identify choke points in global production networks as industries bridging flows across global value chains. These industries exhibit low substitutability: US firms exposed to Chinese choke points during the 2022 Covid-19 lockdowns experienced large and persistent sales declines. The Red Sea crisis demonstrates how negative shocks to water transport, a single choke point, propagate throughout the global network. This structural fragility is priced in global stock markets: firms in choke point industries earn annualized benchmark-adjusted returns exceeding 6%. The premium compensates for aggregate consumption risk, as downturns in choke point industries predict lower future US and global consumption growth.