Infrastructure

  • 详情 Stock Market Responses to AI Technological Capabilities: Evidence from the DeepSeek-R1 Release
    This paper examines how major artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs affect the market pricing of firms’ pre-existing AI capabilities. Using Chinese listed firms’ 2023–2024 AI patents classified with a large language model, we estimate dynamic stock return and volatility responses to the DeepSeek-R1 release. Stronger pre-event AI capabilities are associated with higher post-release returns and greater short-term volatility, with volatility effects persisting longer. Positive return responses concentrate in algorithms and models, not computing infrastructure, while industry applications show later volatility increases without comparable return gains. These findings highlight technology-specific differences between return and volatility responses to AI breakthroughs.
  • 详情 From cash to code: are Central Bank digital currencies the future of money or a risk to financial stability?
    The global financial system is currently navigating a profound transformation driven by digitalization and the rise of decentralized financial innovations. In response, central banks are increasingly exploring or implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a sovereign digital evolution of fiat money. This study investigates the dual nature of CBDCs, evaluating whether they represent a strategic opportunity to modernize the economy or a systemic threat to existing financial stability. Employing a qualitative methodology, the research analyzes official policy frameworks from the IMF and BIS alongside diverse real-world case studies, including China’s e-CNY, the Bahamas’ Sand Dollar, Nigeria’s eNaira, and the European Central Bank’s Digital Euro. The findings suggest that while CBDCs offer significant benefits—such as enhanced payment efficiency, reduced transaction costs, and improved financial inclusion—they also introduce critical risks. These include the potential disintermediation of commercial banks, heightened cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and concerns regarding individual data privacy and government surveillance. The study concludes that the successful integration of CBDCs is not merely a technical challenge but a social and strategic one. Adoption is heavily dependent on infrastructure, digital literacy, and public trust. Ultimately, the research highlights that there is no "one-size-fits-all" model; the future of money will be shaped by how effectively individual nations balance technological innovation with the preservation of financial architecture.
  • 详情 Talking the Talk but Not Walking the Walk: e-CNY and Corporate Digital Catering in China
    Firms frequently overstate digital transformation in public disclosures while committing less in observable investment, a phenomenon known as digital catering. We examine whether digital public financial infrastructure can discipline such symbolic behavior. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design on Chinese A-share listed firms over 2014--2024, we find that exposure to China's e-CNY pilot reduces digital catering by roughly 14% relative to the sample mean. The decline is driven almost entirely by reduced rhetorical digital transformation, while balance-sheet-based digital commitment rises only marginally: the e-CNY pilot is associated with substantially less digital talk, but not with a commensurate increase in digital walk in the short run. The effect operates through lower agency costs and reduced information asymmetry, and follows an amplification--substitution pattern---stronger among digital-sector and accounting-opaque firms, weaker where internal controls and institutional ownership are already strong. The evidence identifies financial-transaction verifiability as a novel source of discipline over corporate cheap talk: CBDC-related infrastructure constrains unsupported symbolic claims without immediately accelerating substantive digital investment.
  • 详情 Financializing Compute: The Design of AI Service Trade Markets
    The global AI inference market—reaching approximately $90–100 billion annually and growing at 18% CAGR—operates without organized exchange infrastructure. We document three market failures: resource misallocation (80% of China’s newly built compute capacity sits idle), price opacity (100-fold price dispersion across providers of equivalent quality), and unhedged risk exposure (85% of enterprises miss AI cost forecasts by more than 10%). Following the market design tradition of Roth [2002] and Budish et al. [2015], we propose the AI Service Right (ASR) as a transferable property right on AI compute and the AI Service Unit (ASU) as a quality-adjusted, cross-platform unit of account grounded in hedonic price theory [Rosen, 1974]. The ASU is modality-neutral: billing prices across text, image, video, and speech modalities are unified via eq-token conversion factors (κimg ≈ 2,667 eq-tokens per image; κvid ≈ 2,667 per second of video; κspc ≈ 7 per second of audio), and modality-appropriate benchmark sets (MMLU/HumanEval for language; FID/CLIP Score for image; FVD/CLIPSIM for video; MMBench for multimodal) supply the quality in dex via PCA. We design a hybrid secondary market architecture synthesizing mechanisms from four orthogonal market traditions: foreign exchange markets (cross-platform exchange rates and PPP-analog arbitrage via the ASU); equity markets (Central Limit Order Book, market making, clearing); electricity markets (Compute Locational Marginal Pricing for spatial scarcity signals); and decentralized finance (Automated Market Maker for long-tail liquidity). We establish nine formal propositions: bilateral trading is generically inefficient; Compute Locational Marginal Pricing decomposes nodal prices into system marginal cost, capacity congestion, and bandwidth premia; no-arbitrage equi librium holds with capital constraints (extending Shleifer and Vishny 1997); the ASR market Pareto-improves over bilateral trading; market prices are more in formative under ASR; the hybrid CLOB-AMM architecture weakly dominates either mechanism alone; platform adoption admits multiple equilibria with a coordination trap; financialization may improve or reduce price informativeness depending on speculator-hedger composition; and a hedonic micro-foundation justifies the ASU definition. Calibrated agent-based simulation (500 steps, 30 Monte Carlo runs) provides computational validation: the hybrid architecture reduces price dispersion by 90% relative to bilateral trading, and order-of-magnitude welfare estimates suggest enterprise procurement cost savings of 0.2–20% (net of ASR transaction costs; see Table 7) and potential TFP gains from compute reallocation of up to $29.9 billion annually. We propose a phased implementation roadmap from shadow ledger to full financialization, and we engage critically with the concern that financialization may not reduce intermediation costs [Philippon, 2015].
  • 详情 Beyond Technological Determinism: Institutional Capacity and Faculty Empowerment Driving Digitalizing in Higher Education-Evidence from Northwest China
    Digitalization is widely promoted as a means to enhance faculty development, yet in resource-constrained regions like Northwest China, structural inequalities persist. This qualitative case study examines how national policy, institutional capacity, and faculty agency interact to shape digital support in higher education. Drawing on institutional records and interviews with faculty from two universities, the study reveals stark disparities in funding, infrastructure, and training strategies. Research-intensive institutions benefit from policy-backed resources and expert-led programs, while regional universities rely on low-cost lectures and collaborations. Faculty report limited autonomy, disciplinary biases, and insufficient support for emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. In this regional context, these findings challenge assumptions of resource neutrality and technological determinism in digital education policy. The study proposes a governance-oriented framework that emphasizes institutional responsibility, faculty empowerment, and context-sensitive digital strategies. It offers insights for policymakers and institutions seeking to advance equitable and sustainable faculty development in digitally transforming higher education systems.
  • 详情 Governing water with digital: The institutional configurations of digital ecology enabling high-quality development of water conservancy
    High-quality development of water conservancy (HDWC) is of critical value for safeguarding the stability of production systems, livelihoods, and ecosystems. As the digital revolution intersects with China’s “dual carbon” targets, development of water conservancy must transition from traditional engineering approaches to data-driven ecological models. Drawing on institutional logic theory and employing dynamic qualitative comparative analysis across 30 Chinese provinces, this study examines how digital ecology facilitates the HDWC. The findings reveal that none of digital government, digital infrastructure, digital economy, digital capability, or digital society constitutes a necessary condition for the HDWC. Instead, it is the result of the combined effects of multiple institutional logics. Five configurations leading to HDWC are identified and categorized into four types: government-market-driven model, government-market-society-driven model, market-society-driven model, and government-society-driven model. The consistency of the configurations significantly increased during the study period. Furthermore, their distribution showed substantial regional differences. There are two configurations that inhibit the HDWC, namely the government-market-absence type and the market-society-absence type. Digital society emerges as a critical factor. This research uncovers multiple pathways through which digital ecology can empower HDWC, providing valuable insights for optimizing regional digital environments.
  • 详情 Does the industrial internet enhance firm innovation? Evidence from China’s pilot reform
    This study examines whether China’s Industrial Internet pilot policy (2017–2023) enhances firm innovation and explores the underlying mechanisms. Exploiting the staggered rollout of the policy across provinces as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that Industrial Internet adoption significantly increases firms’ innovation output. Mechanism tests show that the policy promotes knowledge accumulation, strengthens innovation persistence, and improves human capital allocation. We also document positive economic consequences, as treated firms earn higher returns to innovation. The effects are stronger for capital-intensive firms, those located in regions with advanced digital infrastructure, and firms undertaking joint or substantive innovation activities. Overall, the evidence highlights the Industrial Internet as an effective catalyst for firm innovation by deepening R&D capability and facilitating cross-industry knowledge flows.
  • 详情 The Impact of China's Digital Financial Inclusion on Multidimensional Poverty of Households
    Does digital financial inclusion alleviate poverty? This study investigates this question by integrating the Digital Financial Inclusion Index of Peking University with microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to examine how the expansion of digital financial inclusion affects household multidimensional poverty in China. Anchored in Amartya Sen ’ s capability approach and operationalized through the Alkire–Foster (A–F) framework, the study identifies multidimensional poverty across five key dimensions: income, health, education, insurance, and living standards. Probit models are employed to estimate how digital financial inclusion influences both the likelihood and structure of multidimensional poverty, while instrumental variable techniques are used to address potential endogeneity. Beyond the average effects, the study further explores the mechanisms through which digital financial inclusion contributes to poverty alleviation, focusing on three channels—promoting household consumption, increasing financial investment, and enhancing access to credit. The results reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly mitigates multidimensional poverty, particularly by improving income, living standards, and health outcomes, though its effects on education and insurance are limited. These findings underscore the transformative role of digital finance in fostering inclusive growth, suggesting that policies expanding digital financial infrastructure and literacy can amplify its poverty-reducing effects and advance equitable development.
  • 详情 The Value of Digital Finance: Evidence from the Geographical Distribution of Corporate Supply Chains
    This study investigates how the development of digital finance influences the geographical distribution of corporate supply chains using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2023. We examine whether digital finance enables firms to overcome traditional geographical constraints and adopt different supply chain distribution strategies. The analysis identifies two primary mechanisms through which digital finance influences supply chain geography: governance effects, which operate through enhanced risk management and information transparency, and financing effects, which function through alleviated capital constraints and trade credit provision. We further explore heterogeneous impacts across four dimensions: regional economic development, regional digital infrastructure, industry market competition, and enterprise lifecycle stages. By examining the geographical distribution of supply chains as an outcome of digital finance development, this study provides novel evidence on the micro-governance implications of digital finance. Our findings contribute to understanding how digital finance fundamentally changes the geographical constraints that have historically shaped supplier selection decisions and enables firms to develop more flexible supply chain configurations.
  • 详情 How Does Artificial Intelligence Affect Total Factor Productivity of Manufacturing Firms? Evidence from the Operational Efficiency Mechanism
    This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) adoption influences the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese A-share manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2023. Results show that AI significantly raises TFP, robust across multiple specifications and instrumental variable tests. AI also boosts operational efficiency by accelerating accounts receivable and inventory turnover, revealing a “technology–operation–productivity” pathway. The positive effect is stronger in regions with better digital infrastructure and in firms with stronger governance. The findings provide fresh evidence on AI’s productivity effects and offer policy implications for intelligent transformation and high-quality manufacturing development.