NDF

  • 详情 Minority Shareholder Voting Power and Labor Investment Efficiency: Natural Experimental Evidence from China
    We examine the effect of minority shareholder voting rights on labor investment efficiency using a sample of Chinese firms. Taking advantage of the difference-in-difference setting, our study reveals that the expansion of minority shareholder voting rights has a detrimental effect on labor investment efficiency. Through analysis of holding period and a managerial shortsightedness index based on textual analysis, we find that this outcome can be attributed to the fact that minority shareholders typically prioritize short-term gains over long-term corporate growth. Moreover, the impact of voting power is more pronounced in determining the investment efficiency of rank-andfileemployees. Our results are more significant for firms that face severe financial constraints, are non-state-owned enterprises, exhibit lower levels of internal control, possess fewer female managers, demonstrate lower human capital quality and higher labor intensity. Taken together, our paper suggests that minority shareholders could be myopia in making labor decisions.
  • 详情 Is A Better Than B? How Affect Influences the Marketing and Pricing of Financial Securities
    Culture and experience associate A with superior quality. In the marketing of dual-class IPOs, issuers are mindful of this preference. For years after IPO issuance, inferior voting rights shares labeled Class A enjoy higher market valuations and smaller voting premiums than do Class B shares.
  • 详情 人民币远期汇率差价之谜?基于NDF与境内结售汇市场参与主体的微观分析
    在境外NDF 市场和境内结售汇市场上,人民币远期汇率表现出明显的价格差 异,并且这种差价呈现出系统性和持续性的特征。是什么原因造成了这种现象?目前还没有 规范的解释。我们认识到由于监管环境的不同,境内外两个市场的交易主体进而交易本身的 存在着巨大差别:境内市场主要是套期保值者、中央银行和套利者之间的交易,而境外NDF 市场则是套期保值者、投机者和套利者之间的交易。然后我们依据现代远期汇率理论,考虑 预期行为并引入抛补利率平价理论分别构造出两个市场的远期均衡汇率定价模型,给出了远 期汇率差价现象的一个理论解释,并相应提出了完善人民币定价机制的政策建议。
  • 详情 人民币即期汇率、境内远期汇率与境外NDF汇率之间的动态关联:NDF监管政策出台之后
    本文运用Granger因果检验方法和DCC-MGARCH模型,并基于交易相对比较活跃的四期(1月期、3月期、6月期、12月期)合约日度数据,对外管局禁止境内机构从事NDF交易后人民币对美元即期汇率市场、境内远期汇率市场和境外NDF市场之间的动态关联关系进行了实证研究,研究发现: 市场间常条件和动态条件相关系数随着合约期限的增长呈现递减态势,即期市场与境外NDF市场之间的相关性最强,境内外远期市场之间的相关性最弱;虽然即期市场存在对境外NDF市场的信息波动溢出效应,但从总体上看,在三个市场中,境外NDF市场的价格引导力量强于即期市场和境内远期市场,处于市场价格信息的中心地位。
  • 详情 Is Warrant Really a Derivative? Evidence from the Chinese Warrant Market
    China launched her warrant market in August 2005 in the split share structure reform of listed companies. As up to now, equity trading on margin and short-sale of any form are still prohibited in China. This warrant market enables investors to trade on information that otherwise might be prohibitively expensive to trade on. The Chinese warrant market created top trading volume and turnover with only a handful of different warrants traded. This paper first studies the Chinese warrant market. Empirical evidence shows that the market prices of warrants are much higher systematically than the Black-Scholes prices with historical volatility. Moreover, the paper documents ample evidence that the one-dimensional diffusion model does not apply well in the Chinese warrant market. The prices of a warrant and its underlying asset do not support the monotonicity, perfect correlation and option redundancy properties. The paper also studies the cumulated gains of a delta-hedged warrant portfolio. In the Chinese warrant market, the cumulated delta-hedged gains for almost all expired warrants are negative. The negative gains are mainly driven by the volatility risk, and the trading values of the warrants for puts and the market risk for calls. The investors are trading some other risks in addition to the underlying risk.
  • 详情 中国应开放人民币NDF市场吗?——基于人民币和韩圆的对比研究
    本文针对人民币和韩圆分别考察了不完全关闭NDF、关闭NDF、不完全开放NDF和开放NDF背景下SPOT、DF和NDF市场之间的互动关系和信息流动特征,对不同开放背景下货币当局的政策效果和影响进行了实证研究。DCC-GARCH的研究结果表明:开放NDF市场会促进SPOT、DF和NDF三个市场之间的一体化程度,但同时也意味着波动的相关性大大提高,且NDF市场通常为波动来源,同时会在一定程度上降低央行干预的有效性。在DF市场尚不发达的情况下关闭NDF市场,可能会有利于DF市场的发展,减少NDF在汇率定价中的影响力。
  • 详情 结构突变、推定预期与风险溢酬:美元/人民币远期汇率定价偏差的信息含量
    本文对人民币DF和NDF市场上不同期限的美元/人民币远期汇率定价偏差中所蕴含的信息在理论上和实证上进行了多角度的分解和研究,发现样本期内的远期汇率定价偏差是结构突变的非平稳序列,美元/人民币远期外汇市场上的利率平价并不成立,其定价偏差在本质上是市场预期的央行升贬值幅度与美元资产预期收益率的差异,决定远期汇率升贴水的不再是利率平价,而主要是预期和外汇风险溢酬。本文的另一个重要发现是美元/人民币外汇市场上的预期形成机制主要体现为推定预期,而且样本期内NDF定价偏差的变化对近期美元/人民币即期汇率变动具有一定的预测能力。同时,我们的研究还表明,对于国际投资者而言,人民币的风险溢酬和系统性风险为正,而美元的系统性风险则是负的。
  • 详情 人民币无本金交割远期交易:市场发展及其影响
    本文首先主要介绍了人民币无本金交割远期交易(NDF)的特点、市场发 展以及操作机制。在此基础上,我们具体分析了离岸NDF 交易对于境内人民币 汇率的影响机制和效应。对NDF 汇率和境内即期和远期汇率之间进行的格兰杰 因果检验表明:境内即期汇率与NDF 汇率之间有较强的引导作用,且境内即期 汇率占主导地位;1 年期的NDF 汇率与境内远期相互引导,而其他期限品种只 存在境内远期汇率对NDF 汇率的引导作用。在文章的最后,我们提出了若干境 内远期外汇市场发展的政策建议。
  • 详情 人民币即期汇率市场与境外衍生市场之间的信息流动关系研究
    本文基于格兰杰因果检验方法和MGARCH-BEKK模型,检验人民币即期外汇市场与境外期货市场、境外NDF市场之间的信息流动关系。结果表明:境外期货市场对即期市场不具有任何溢出效应,期货市场的建立并未对即期市场的稳定性产生影响;境外NDF市场对即期市场存在显著的报酬溢出效应;即期市场对境外各衍生市场仅具有滞后的报酬溢出效应,在价格变动上被境外NDF市场所引导;但在波动溢出效应方面,市场信息则由即期市场向各境外衍生市场单向传递。在一个市场中,境外NDF市场的价格引导力量强于即期市场和期货市场,处于市场价格信息的中心地位。
  • 详情 人民币汇率境内外远期市场波动溢出效应与动态相关性
    本文引入DCC-Garch模型,将境内外人民币远期市场的收益和波动分解为“本地因 素”,来自境外“世界因素”以及来自即期汇率的“定价因素”,讨论三者之间的波动溢出效应与动态相关关系。结果发现,境外NDF 远期市场与境内远期市场之间存在双向引导关系与波动溢出效应,但是境外NDF远期市场有较强的信号传递作用,即期汇率对境外NDF远期的影响要远大于对境内远期市场的影响。同时发现即期汇率对远期市场的收益率具有显著影响,但是仅在短期合约(如一月、三月期限)和长期合约上具有波动效应。