Peers

  • 详情 Peer Md&A Risk Disclosure and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China
    In this study, we investigate whether and how risk disclosure in peer firms’ management discussion and analysis (MD&A) influences analyst earnings forecast accuracy. We find that peer MD&A risk disclosure significantly improves forecast accuracy, demonstrating a positive spillover effect. Moreover, the impact of peer MD&A risk disclosure on analysts’ forecast accuracy strengthens with the comparability and reliability of peer firms’ information, while weakens with the disclosure quality of the focal firm. Finally, peer MD&A risk disclosure also reduces stock price crash risk, providing further evidence that it improves information environment of the focal firm.
  • 详情 Fales Hope: The Spillover Effect of National Leaders' Firm Visits on Industry Peers
    We study how politicians' activities affect the stock market and firm performance. Using hand-collected data on China's national leaders' corporate visits, we investigate the industry-wide implications of these visits. We find that over the six days surrounding a visit, an average industry peer's value increases by 2\% of its total assets. This result reflects investors' favourable interpretation of leaders' visits as a signal of more government support for the entire industry. However, the industry peer's profitability plummets by more than 15\% in the next three years. Further analysis reveals that after the visits, industry peers increase their investments, presumably in anticipation of additional government subsidies and credits. However, these resources are insufficient, and the profitability of these firms suffers. Our findings suggest that national leaders' visits do not help boost the targeted industries, and firms should carefully interpret the politicians' activities.
  • 详情 Predicting Stock Price Crash Risk in China: A Modified Graph Wavenet Model
    The stock price of a firm is dynamically influenced by its own factors as well as those of its peers. In this study, we introduce a Graph Attention Network (GAT) integrated with WaveNet architecture—termed the GAT-WaveNet model—to capture both time-series and spatial dependencies for forecasting the stock price crash risk of Chinese listed firms from 2012 to 2021. Utilizing node-rolling techniques to prevent overfitting, our results show that the GAT-WaveNet model significantly outperforms traditional machine learning models in prediction accuracy. Moreover, investment portfolios leveraging the GAT-WaveNet model substantially exceed the cumulative returns of those based on other models.
  • 详情 Risk-Based Peer Networks and Return Predictability: Evidence from textual analysis on 10-K filings
    We construct a novel risk-based similarity peer network by applying machine learning techniques to extract a comprehensive set of disclosed risk factors from firms' annual reports. We find that a firm's future returns can be significantly predicted by the past returns of its risk-similar peers, even after excluding firms within the same industry. A long-short portfolio, formed based on the returns of these risk-similar peers, generates an alpha of 84 basis points per month. This return predictability is particularly pronounced for negative-return stocks and those with limited investor attention, suggesting that the effect is driven by slow information diffusion across firms with similar risk exposures. Our findings highlight that the risk factors disclosed in 10-K filings contain valuable information that is often overlooked by investors.
  • 详情 Peer Effects in Influencer-Sponsored Content Creation on Social Media Platforms
    To specify the peer effects that affect influencers’ sponsored content strategies, the current research addresses three questions: how influencers respond to peers, what mechanisms drive these effects, and the implications for social media platforms. By using a linear-in-means model and data from a leading Chinese social media platform, the authors address the issues of endogenous peer group formation, correlated unobservables, and simultaneity in decision-making and thereby offer evidence of strong peer effects on the quantity of sponsored content but not its quality. These effects are driven by two mechanisms: a social learning motive, such that following influencers emulate leading influencers, and a competition motive among following influencers within peer groups. No evidence of competition motive among leading influencers or defensive strategies by leading influencers arises. Moreover, peer effects increase influencers’ spending on in-feed advertising services, leading to greater platform revenues, without affecting the pricing of sponsored content. This dynamic may reduce influencers’ profitability, because their rising costs are not offset by higher prices. These findings emphasize the need for balanced strategies that prioritize both platform growth and influencer sustainability. By revealing how peer effects influence competition and revenue generation, this study provides valuable insights for optimizing content volume, quality, and financial outcomes for social media platforms and influencers.
  • 详情 Does social media make banks more fragile? Evidence from Twitter
    Using a sample of U.S. commercial banks from 2009 to 2022, we find that the flow of non-core deposits, rather than that of core deposits, becomes more sensitive to bank performance as banks receive increased attention on Twitter. This effect is particularly pronounced during periods of poor bank performance, when Twitter discussions are more influential, and for banks with more liquidity mismatch. Our results suggest that social media, rather than merely disseminating information about bank performance, makes depositors aware of their peers’ attention to banks, thereby intensifying the sensitivity of deposit outflows to weak fundamentals.
  • 详情 ESG Report Textual Similarity and Stock Price Synchronicity: Evidence from China
    This study examines the influence of ESG report textual similarity on stock price synchronicity within the Chinese A-share market. Using advanced textual analysis methods, including TF-IDF and LDA, we measure the textual similarity of ESG reports among industry peers. Our results reveal a positive association between ESG report textual similarity and stock price synchronicity, suggesting that ESG reports with high textual resemblance may not convey distinct market information. This research underscores the importance of textual distinctiveness in ESG reports and offers a fresh perspective on the role of non-financial information, particularly related to CSR, in stock pricing dynamics. By emphasizing the significance of ESG report textual distinctiveness, we contribute to the broader discourse on ESG disclosure behaviors and their implications for capital market efficiency.
  • 详情 Peer pressure and moral hazard: Evidence from retail banking investment advisors
    While it is generally believed that pressure from peers induces employees to improve their efficiency and performance, little is known about whether employees' improved performance is detrimental to the interests of others. Based on a granular dataset at the individual-month level of investment advisors' and customers’ accounts from a large retail bank in China, we find that peer pressure, as measured by the performance of advisors relative to their colleagues in the previous month, can induce the advisors to sell more financial products, but can also exacerbate misselling, resulting in a significant increase in sales of poor-quality financial products ("high-risk-low-return" products). The causal link is identified with an exogenous change of peer size. The peer pressure effects are pronounced among poor performance advisors, and client complaints play a monitoring role in curbing misselling. By exploring the correspondence between advisors and clients, we find that misselling occurs mainly between female advisors and male clients, and between advisors who lack work experience and clients who lack investment experience.
  • 详情 ESG Report Textual Similarity and Stock Price Synchronicity: Evidence from China
    This study examines the influence of ESG report textual similarity on stock price synchronicity within the Chinese A-share market. Using advanced textual analysis methods, including TF-IDF and LDA, we measure the textual similarity of ESG reports among industry peers. Our results reveal a positive association between ESG report textual similarity and stock price synchronicity, suggesting that ESG reports with high textual resemblance may not convey distinct market information. This research underscores the importance of textual distinctiveness in ESG reports and offers a fresh perspective on the role of non-financial information, particularly related to CSR, in stock pricing dynamics. By emphasizing the significance of ESG report textual distinctiveness, we contribute to the broader discourse on ESG disclosure behaviors and their implications for capital market efficiency.
  • 详情 The Spillover of Corporate ES on Bank Loan Cost
    We investigate the causal impact of a company's environmental and social (ES) risk on the borrowing costs of its peer firms (that share lending banks). Using a regression discontinuity design based on the voting outcomes of ES-related shareholder proposals in US public companies' annual meetings from 2005 to 2021, we find that the passage of ES-related proposals leads to an average increase of 38 basis points in the loan costs for peer firms in the subsequent year. The negative spillover is more pronounced for peers with lower bargaining power in their banking relations or having lower ex-ante ES scores, on credit lines rather than term loans, and during the earlier years, validating that banks indeed channel the spillover. Notably, the spillover is particularly significant if the peer firms locate in the same states as the focal firm, or when the proposals reflect a higher degree of disagreement between the proposing shareholders and the managers, or for loans issued by banks lacking prior incentives or expertise in pricing ES risks (``non-ES banks''). We interpret these findings as evidence that the passage of ES-related shareholder proposals releases new information related to peers' ES risks and especially raises the awareness of ES risks among non-ES banks, prompting them to adjust loan rates for their portfolio companies accordingly.