This paper aims to empirically explore the cyclical attributes of dynamic correlation shifts between the stock and real estate market, and the factors that influence this correlation during different periods of the economic cycle. Our research uncovers a significant structural shift in the correlation towards the end of 2012. By taking into account macroeconomic growth, regulatory policies, financial market conditions, and developments within both the stock and real estate markets, we investigate the time-varying characteristics of these factors' influence. The results highlight the pronounced cyclical asymmetry of these influential factors. Currently, the wealth effect in China's stock and real estate markets has significantly diminished, and the credit-price effect has vanished. A marked seesaw relationship is evident between the two markets. This outcome supports that various restrictions imposed on the real estate market have reduced its investment appeal.

This study contributes to the understanding of the relationship between Chinese local government debt and house prices by proposing the land channel as a novel explanatory framework. We construct a three-sector equilibrium model and demonstrate that local government debt positively affects house prices through both direct and indirect effects, with the indirect effect operating through the land market. However, the land use efficiency mitigates the positive effect of government debt on land and house prices within indirect effect. These propositions are empirically confirmed using a panel dataset of 260 cities in China from 2011 to 2019.

We examine the roles of bank ownership and CEO political faction membership in facilitating or hindering the implementation of central bank policy in China. Specifically, we examine the response of China’s commercial banks to People’s Bank of China (PBC) guidelines intended to decrease mortgage lending and to slow down the rise in residential property prices. We find that both bank ownership and faction membership matter. Central government-owned banks whose CEOs are members of the specialist finance faction within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) respond most strongly to PBC guidance, whereas provincial or city government-owned banks whose CEOs are members of a generalist faction respond least strongly. The implementation of PBC policy has real effects: in those cities where central government-owned banks with specialist CEOs constitute a larger percentage of total bank branches, house prices grew more slowly, as did the number of residential real estate transactions and the number of new listings. Where in contrast provincial and city government-owned banks with generalist CEOs dominate, the number of transactions grew faster; the rate of house price appreciation and the number of listings were however unaffected. We conclude that China’s different levels of government and the CCP’s different factions enjoy some discretion in responding to PBC guidance and that they exploit the discretion they are afforded to vary the strength of their response.

Referring to the newspaper textual analysis method by Baker et al. (2016), this study constructs a monthly Chinese Real Estate Policy Uncertainty (REPU) index from 2001 to 2018. The index increases significantly near the promulgation of major policies. We also conduct evaluation of the index with the vector autoregression (VAR) model, which reveals that the rise of REPU indicates the decline in the growth rate of commodity housing development investment, sales area, and real estate industry added value. The REPU index is helpful to expand the understanding of policy uncertainty, and the accurate measurement of REPU is the basis for further research of its impact on China's real estate market.

This paper examines the health consequence of rising housing prices by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in housing price appreciation linked to individual-level health data in China from 2000 to 2011. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find robust evidence that increases in housing prices significantly raise the probability of residents having chronic diseases. This negative health impact is more pronounced among individuals from lowincome families and rural to urban migrants. Exploring various possible channels, we find that marriage culture and marriage market competition exacerbates the negative health effects, particularly for males and parents with young adult sons. Our results also reveal that housing price appreciation induces negative health consequences through increased work intensity, higher mental stress, and changes in lifestyle. This paper underlines the unintended health consequences of the real estate market prosperity.

Volume of real estate market in some China’s large cities decreased sharply in 2010. Based on rational reconstruction of some basic economic thought and analytical narrative of the real estate price bubble ,I conclude that it should be contributed to a big gap between demand and supply, and financial crisis would break out in the coming few month in China. I make proposal that government should be reducing state-owned share.

内容提要: 本文针对近年来我国房地产市场价格持续攀升但市场需求不降反升、银行信贷资金迅速向房地产业集中以及房地产市场发展与经济增长的作用等问题，以全国和各省、市、自治区的面板数据，进行了实证分析。分析结果显示，我国房地产市场供给约束问题非常严重，尤其是考虑到居民收入增长因素后，房地产市场的供求矛盾十分突出；银行房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款强有力地支撑了房地产市场的供求；房地产市场的发展也拉动了经济的增长，但这一作用没有我们想象的大。因此，目前我国针对房地产市场的宏观调控和各项监管措施，都应该从供求两方面出发，在金融等政策上要保持连续性，并加强制度建设，更好地发挥市场机制的作用。 Abstract: Recent years, with the rising price, the housing demands also rise quickly, which is strange to the common sense of economics. In addition, the relationship between banking sector and housing industry has become more and close, and the growth of housing industry pull the economic growth dramatically. Based on the panel data of the nation and provinces, we try an empirical study on the topics above. The empirical results show that at least in the nowadays China’s market, one of the most sever problem in the real estate market is the constraints of the housing supply compared to the demand if we consider the effects of the resid ents’income growth. Bank loans are maybe the most effective factor pulling the housing industry growth, both on the supply side and the demand. To our surprise, the effect of housing consumption on the economic growth is less than we have assumed, considering the cyclical changes of the economy. . So we draw the followed policy implications in the further macroeconomic managements: we must take the measures directly to both the supply and the demand sides, keep the policies’ continuity, strengthen the institutional progress and make the market mechanism more effective.

Optimal Timing and Optimal Intensity of Real Estate Development Abstract The traditional real option approach treat firms as price taker and at the same time the firm is assumed to have monopoly power because no competition or future competitive entry is not considered in most of the real option literature. In this article we assume the real estate developer has monopoly power in a real estate submarket, given the nature of real estate market. The developer makes the timing decision as well as the intensity decision at the same time. We model the developer decision in the framework of the real option and derived the optimal timing and optimal intensity of real estate development of a certain real estate project. Our Result shows that not only the uncertainty but also the low rent sensitivity of housing demand will lead to defer of real estate development. And both the timing decision and intensity decision are sensitive to the demand factors besides the uncertainty effect.