Stock price

  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Chinese Bank Crash Risk: The Mitigating Role of Governance and Digital Transparency
    This study examines the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the stock price crash risk of Chinese commercial banks. In addition, it explores how Governance and Digital Transparency curtail the effect of EPU on stock price crash risk. Using a sample of 50 Chinese A-share-listed banks from 2012 to 2024, the study reveals that EPU significantly increased the banks’ stock price crash risk. The findings are robust to alternative measures of EPU and stock price crash risk. Further, governance and FinTech adoption mitigate the positive effect. The mitigating effect persists across high- and low-risk bank subsamples. In addition, we perform a battery of analyses to support our main findings. These findings have important theoretical and practical implications.
  • 详情 Independent Director-Affiliated Donations and Stock Price Crash Risk
    This paper investigates whether and how independent director-affiliated corporate donations affect stock price crash risk in China. We find a significant positive relationship between affiliated donations and future crash risk. The relationship is more significant for firms with weak internal governance and limited external monitoring, when affiliated directors serve on the audit committee, and in non-state-owned enterprises. Overall, our findings suggest that the social ties built through affiliated donations undermine rather than enhance director monitoring, and that agency theory has more explanatory power than resource dependence theory for understanding the impact of affiliated donations on stock price crash risk.
  • 详情 What's New this Time? The Market Reaction of China to Trump's Tariff Policy
    We investigate the stock market reaction in China to Trump’s tariff policy announcement on April 2, 2025. We find that the tariff policy reduced stock prices of Chinese firms except those in the agricultural sector. Large-cap stocks, value stocks, stocks of high profitability firms, and stocks of state-owned enterprises experienced smaller negative impacts. Stocks with higher institutional holdings by mutual funds and Social Security Funds exhibited higher resilience, possibly due to these investors' superior capability in selecting stocks and forecasting trade war risks. In contrast, stocks held by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) did not exhibit such resilience.
  • 详情 The Externalities of Foreign Investor Disclosure
    We examine the influence of foreign equity flows on China's unique retail-dominated stock market, identifying a novel channel through which investors’ herding creates significant market externalities. We find that the daily disclosure of foreign investors' positions induces local investors to imitate these trades, resulting in observable short-term price distortions followed by reversals. Our analyses, which include inflow predictability tied to disclosure timing and path analysis decomposition, confirm that the herding effect, largely driven by retail participants, is more impactful than the direct effect based on the informational content of foreign capital. Furthermore, inflated stock prices resulting from the herding behavior cause public firms to overvalue and overinvest, leading to reduced investment efficiencies. These findings highlight potential adverse consequences stemming from specific stock market liberalization designs.
  • 详情 Can Artificial Intelligence Reduce Corporate Stock Price Crash Risk in China?
    This study examines the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on stock price crash risk using panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2001 to 2022. We find that higher levels of AI application significantly reduce crash risk, primarily by enhancing information transparency, easing financial constraints, and promoting innovation. Notably, AI improves transparency within supply chains by reducing information asymmetry between upstream and downstream firms, thereby enhancing information flow and reducing market frictions. Among AI types, machine learning proves most effective in lowering crash risk due to its data-processing and forecasting capabilities, while natural language processing and computer vision show weaker effects. The impact of AI is particularly pronounced in non-government-regulated industries and high-tech firms. Moreover, its risk-mitigating effect becomes increasingly significant over time. These results are robust to instrumental variable estimation and staggered difference-in-differences (DID) designs. These findings highlight the strategic role of AI in risk management and offer practical implications for firms and policymakers aiming to enhance transparency, financial resilience, and long-term value creation.
  • 详情 Value-Relevance of Accounting Information: Exploring Alternative Metrics
    The value-relevance of accounting information is a cornerstone of capital market research, typically measured indirectly through coefficients and R2 values from returns-earnings models, which have limitations in explaining how accounting information influences stock prices. Based on the theory of financial analyst and the generating process of accounting information, we propose a direct measurement approach using analyst consensus earnings forecasts to capture the effect of accounting information on decision-making. We also construct firm-level measures of predictive and confirmatory value, two qualitative characteristics of accounting information defined by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Using data from the Chinese stock market, where analysts play a crucial role, we find that our measures significantly explain the relationship between accounting information and stock prices, as well as stock price synchronicity. Our study offers a novel and verifiable method to quantify the abstract concept of value-relevance of accounting information, enhancing the understanding of its effect on decision-making and stock prices.
  • 详情 ESG and Corporate Resilience: An Empirical Study of China A-share Market
    Against the backdrop of recurrent global crises, economic uncertainty, and mounting environmental and social pressures, corporate resilience—defined as a firm’s capability to withstand external systemic shocks—has emerged as a critical determinant of long-term sustainability. This study empirically exames the effect of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) performance on corporate resilience in China’s A-share market, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to identify causal effects. The sample comprises 651 A-share listed firms, excluding financial institutions, real estate firms, and ST/*ST companies, over the period from January 20, 2020, when the pandemic was officially announced in China, to June 30, 2024. ESG performance is measured as the average of 2018–2019 ratings issued by three major domestic agencies, thereby capturing firms’ pre-shock conditions and mitigating concerns of reverse causality. Corporate resilience is evaluated along two dimensions: resistance, measured by the severity of losses in net income, revenue, and stock price, and recovery, measured by the time required for ROA, EBIT, stock price, and Tobin’s Q to return to pre-shock levels. To ensure the robustness of the findings, this study employs linear regression models with industry-clustered robust standard errors, an instrumental-variable approach using R&D intensity and analyst coverage as instruments, and a Cox accelerated failure time model to estimate recovery duration. The empirical results indicate that stronger pre-shock ESG performance significantly enhances corporate resistance and shortens recovery time. Mechanism analyses further reveal that ESG strengthens corporate resilience by improving total factor productivity, alleviating financing constraints, and enhancing corporate reputation. These findings remain robust to multicollinearity diagnostics and a range of additional robustness tests. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the value of ESG in strengthening corporate resilience and offers important implications for firms, policymakers, and investors.
  • 详情 Quantitative Trading and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China
    We posit and demonstrate that, in China’s retail-dominated market, quantitative trading over-relies on non-fundamental signals, thereby crowding out fundamental information from stock prices and increasing crash risk. Using trading data from quantitative mutual funds and Chinese A-share firms during 2009-2023, we find that greater exposure to quantitative trading is associated with higher future crash risk. Mediation analysis further reveals that reduced information efficiency constitutes a key channel through which quantitative trading elevates crash risk. The effect is stronger for stocks with more retail investors, consistent with our proposed mechanism. Overall, we identify a novel potential risk of quantitative trading in underdeveloped emerging markets.
  • 详情 Immediate effects and cumulative effects: Does stock returns affect hypertension incidence?
    This study examines the impact of stock market returns on the incidence of hypertension and related outpatient visits using daily data from both regular and major-illness outpatient visits for hypertension. We find that the number of hypertension consultations increases significantly as the stock market declines. Specifically, the effect of market downturns on outpatient visits is more prominent among the seniors and those with poor baseline health. While ambient temperature has a relatively weak effect on regular outpatient visits for hypertension (ROV), it explains a greater share of the variation in major-illness outpatient visits for hypertension (MOV). Both sets of findings suggest that the health effect of stock market volatility is immediate and transient. Using monthly data on MOV, we also find a significantly negative association between MOV and stock market returns, especially during periods of extreme volatility such as market crashes. These findings suggest that stock price declines may increase outpatient visits for hypertension through psychological stress or wealth-loss channels.
  • 详情 Information Acquisition By Mutual Fund Investors: Evidence from Stock Trading Suspensions
    Mutual funds create liquidity for investors by issuing demandable equity shares while holding illiquid securities. We study the implications of this liquidity creation by examining frequent trading suspensions in China, which temporarily eliminate market liquidity in affected stocks. These suspensions cause significant mispricing of mutual funds due to inaccurate valuations of their illiquid holdings. We find that investors actively acquire information about suspended stocks held by mutual funds, driving flows into underpriced funds. This information is subsequently incorporated into stock prices when trading resumes. Our findings suggest that mutual fund liquidity creation stimulates information acquisition about illiquid, information-sensitive assets.