Partially convertible economies face a market-design problem: trade integration, cross-border investment, and domestic balance-sheet exposure increase the demand for currency hedging before full financial integration is complete. China adopted a distinctive architecture for this problem by fostering a deliverable offshore Renminbi market (CNH) alongside the segmented onshore market (CNY), rather than relying only on non-deliverable forwards. This creates two venues for closely related claims on the same currency. Spot prices are tightly linked, yet CNY and CNH forwards display a persistent and economically large discrepancy. We study that discrepancy in a joint equilibrium model for spot and forward trading with transaction costs and segmented supply. In the benchmark case with common constant supply and deterministic costs, spot parity implies a forward differential with the wrong sign relative to the data. Random offshore stress, modeled as a jump in trading costs, overturns this benchmark while preserving tight spot parity. The model yields a semi-explicit representation in the CNY/CNH application and a calibration of the observed forward discrepancy in terms of the market-implied likelihood and severity of offshore liquidity stress.

Supply chain standardization significantly promotes cross-regional investment by increasing subsidiaries outside headquarters cities, mainly by reducing transaction and information costs and alleviating “outsider disadvantage.” This effect is stronger for non-state-owned firms, firms with lower financing constraints, and those in highly marketized regions. Our findings show that standardization helps overcomeinstitutional and information barriers, optimizing resource allocation. This study expands supply chain governance literature and offers insights for building a unified national market.

We propose a clustering-based dimensionality reduction approach to minimum variance portfolio optimization. Rather than constructing the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio over the full stock universe, which is subject to severe estimation error due to high-dimensionality, we apply Ward’s hierarchical clustering to partition stocks into groups of similarly behaving assets, select one representative per cluster, and optimize on the resulting low-dimensional sub-universe. We show theoretically that clustering preserves the factor structure and yields a better-conditioned covariance matrix than random selection. Empirically, on the Chinese A-share market, the proposed strategies substantially outperform the full-universe benchmark, with gains robust to transaction costs.

The global AI inference market—reaching approximately $90–100 billion annually and growing at 18% CAGR—operates without organized exchange infrastructure. We document three market failures: resource misallocation (80% of China’s newly built compute capacity sits idle), price opacity (100-fold price dispersion across providers of equivalent quality), and unhedged risk exposure (85% of enterprises miss AI cost forecasts by more than 10%). Following the market design tradition of Roth [2002] and Budish et al. [2015], we propose the AI Service Right (ASR) as a transferable property right on AI compute and the AI Service Unit (ASU) as a quality-adjusted, cross-platform unit of account grounded in hedonic price theory [Rosen, 1974]. The ASU is modality-neutral: billing prices across text, image, video, and speech modalities are unified via eq-token conversion factors (κimg ≈ 2,667 eq-tokens per image; κvid ≈ 2,667 per second of video; κspc ≈ 7 per second of audio), and modality-appropriate benchmark sets (MMLU/HumanEval for language; FID/CLIP Score for image; FVD/CLIPSIM for video; MMBench for multimodal) supply the quality in dex via PCA. We design a hybrid secondary market architecture synthesizing mechanisms from four orthogonal market traditions: foreign exchange markets (cross-platform exchange rates and PPP-analog arbitrage via the ASU); equity markets (Central Limit Order Book, market making, clearing); electricity markets (Compute Locational Marginal Pricing for spatial scarcity signals); and decentralized finance (Automated Market Maker for long-tail liquidity). We establish nine formal propositions: bilateral trading is generically inefficient; Compute Locational Marginal Pricing decomposes nodal prices into system marginal cost, capacity congestion, and bandwidth premia; no-arbitrage equi librium holds with capital constraints (extending Shleifer and Vishny 1997); the ASR market Pareto-improves over bilateral trading; market prices are more in formative under ASR; the hybrid CLOB-AMM architecture weakly dominates either mechanism alone; platform adoption admits multiple equilibria with a coordination trap; financialization may improve or reduce price informativeness depending on speculator-hedger composition; and a hedonic micro-foundation justifies the ASU definition. Calibrated agent-based simulation (500 steps, 30 Monte Carlo runs) provides computational validation: the hybrid architecture reduces price dispersion by 90% relative to bilateral trading, and order-of-magnitude welfare estimates suggest enterprise procurement cost savings of 0.2–20% (net of ASR transaction costs; see Table 7) and potential TFP gains from compute reallocation of up to $29.9 billion annually. We propose a phased implementation roadmap from shadow ledger to full financialization, and we engage critically with the concern that financialization may not reduce intermediation costs [Philippon, 2015].

Farmland transfer in developing countries is characterized by informal contracts. Rich research typically attributes this phenomenon to the lack of property rights and rarely emphasizes the influence of land characteristics themselves. Utilizing plot-level data from 2017-2019 collected in Yangshan County, China, we evaluate the impact of land consolidation on the farmland transfer market transformation. We find that land consolidation has a positive impact on the transformation of farmland transfer markets, instead of its scale expansion. After land consolidation, the scope of transaction partners extends from relationship-based households to anonymous new agricultural operating entities; the transfer rent shifts from being free of charge to being paid; and the transfer duration shifts from short-term to long-term. Mechanism analysis reveals that land consolidation increases land value and reduces transaction costs by improving the endowment of farmland resources, thus driving the farmland transfer market transformation. Further exploration warns that market transformation caused by land consolidation may trigger non-grain farming, leading to a 15.2% reduction in the rice planting area and posing potential risks to food security. These findings enrich the existing studies that only focus on the impact of land rights reform, both theoretically and empirically. In practice, it has important policy implications for countries facing similar difficulties in the farmland transfer market as China.

Prevailing research, assuming developed financial markets, concludes that Chinese firms heavily rely on “short-term credit for long-term investment.”We challenge this view, arguing that China's vibrant informal financial system provides crucial alternative funding. Consequently, the severity of this maturity mismatch is likely overestimated. To investigate this, we examine strategic alliances as a representative informal institution. Our analysis confirms that such alliances significantly mitigate maturity mismatch, revealing that they enhance information sharing and reduce transaction costs. This provides initial evidence of informal institutions' critical role in addressing this issue. Given the prevalence of similar arrangements in China—like private lending and inter-corporate financing—our findings highlight the need to look beyond formal systems. This perspective not only recalibrates the understanding of corporate financing in China but also opens ample avenues for future research on informal finance's role in emerging economies.

We develop a deep-visualization framework for timing the factor zoo. Historical factor return trajectories are converted to two complementary image representations, which are then learned by convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to generate factor-specific timing signals. Using 206 equity factors, our CNN-based forecasts deliver significant economic gains: timed factors earn an average annualized alpha of about 6\%, and a high-minus-low strategy yields an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.22. The outperformance is robust to transaction costs, post-publication decay, and factor category-level analysis. Interpretability analyses reveal that CNNs extract predictive signals from path boundaries and regime shifts, capturing patterns orthogonal to investor attention.

This paper examines bond trading activity and transaction cost differences between the bilateral Over-the-Counter (OTC) and the centralized Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) venues in the China interbank government bonds market, structured as all-to-all. Using a novel trade-level dataset, we estimate that CLOB reduces transaction costs by 0.66 basis points compared to OTC, highlighting the efficiency of its centralized trading mechanism. Furthermore, our analysis of cross-venue selection patterns reveals that the CLOB venue disproportionately facilitates core traders, orders with standardized sizes and settlement speeds, and newly issued bond trades. Despite CLOB’s cost advantages, the continued use of OTC is justified by its unique benefits, including mitigating information leakage, enabling designated counterparties, and facilitating position rebalancing. These findings offer insights into how market microstructure and trading mechanism affect asset liquidity.

We examine the risk-return trade-off in market anomalies within the A-share market, showing that even decaying anomalies may proxy for latent risk factors. To balance forecast bias and variance, we integrate the 1/N and mean-variance frameworks, minimizing out-of-sample forecast error. Treating anomalies as tradable assets, we construct optimized long-short portfolios with strong performance: an average annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.56 and a certainty-equivalent return of 29.4% for a meanvariance investor. These premiums persist post-publication and are largely driven by liquidity risk exposures. Our results remain robust to market frictions, including shortsale constraints and transaction costs. We conclude that even decaying market anomalies may reflect priced risk premia rather than mere mispricing. This research provides practical guidance for academics and investors in return predictability and asset allocation, especially in the unique context of the Chinese A-share market.

We examine the risk-return trade-off in market anomalies within the A-share market, showing that even decaying anomalies may proxy for latent risk factors. To balance forecast bias and variance, we integrate the 1/N and mean-variance frameworks, minimizing out-of-sample forecast error. Treating anomalies as tradable assets, we construct optimized long-short portfolios with strong performance: an average annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.56 and a certainty-equivalent return of 29.4% for a mean-variance investor. These premiums persist post-publication and are largely driven by liquidity risk exposures. Our results remain robust to market frictions, including short-sale constraints and transaction costs. We conclude that even decaying market anomalies may reflect priced risk premia rather than mere mispricing. This research provides practical guidance for academics and investors in return predictability and asset allocation, especially in the unique context of the Chinese A-share market.