This paper constructs a call pressure index (CP) from China's SSE 50 ETF option market and finds a robust U-shaped nonlinear predictability for directional option returns as measured by log returns. The effect reflects that extreme call pressures—whether unusually low (reversal) or high (momentum)—contain information, while moderate levels are dominated by noise trading. Robustness checks using delta-hedged returns confirm that predictability stems primarily from directional exposure rather than volatility dynamics. The predictability is stronger in high-volatility and down-market states and survives controlling for implied skewness, variance risk premium, and other common predictors. A simple timing strategy based on rolling-window forecasts achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.97, which further increases to 2.43 after applying a prediction threshold. A parsimonious volume-based indicator captures unique predictive information beyond complex proxies, offering a feasible path for emerging markets lacking proprietary order flow data.

This paper studies how dividing candidates in a tournament into separate tracks with differentiated performance criteria affects incentives and aggregate outcomes. We exploit China’s Major Function Oriented Zoning plan, which assigns counties to devel-opment or conservation tracks, with the latter de-emphasizing growth indicators. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we find that prefectures introducing a con-servation track achieved higher aggregate economic performance despite relaxing growth-based evaluation for part of their subordinate counties. To explain this counterintuitive ef-fect, we develop a stylized Tullock contest model that highlights two institutional features: promotion opportunities remain open to officials in both tracks, and counties within the same prefecture continue to interact across tracks. The model further predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between the size of the conservation track and overall performance, which is supported by empirical evidence.

As China's bond market expands rapidly, the complexity of financial guarantee networks and their implications for credit risk have become critical issues in both academic research and financial practice. Utilizing micro-level data from China's credit bond market spanning 2014 to 2024, this study constructs a multi-layer network incorporating bonds, guarantors, and issuing firms to empirically examine the impact of guarantor network centrality on bond credit spreads. The results reveal a significant U-shaped relationship: moderate centrality reduces spreads by bolstering market confidence, whereas excessive centrality increases them due to heightened systemic risk. Mechanism analyses identify systemic risk and information asymmetry as key mediating channels through which centrality affects credit risk premiums. Heterogeneity tests indicate that this U-shaped pattern is more pronounced among state-owned guarantors, real estate firms, and high-risk clusters within the network. Furthermore, both cross-layer connectivity within the multi-layer structure and regional financial development levels significantly moderate the centrality-spread relationship. These findings offer a structural perspective on credit risk pricing in emerging markets and provide valuable policy insights for credit rating system design, guarantee regulation, and systemic risk prevention. International investors could also leverage these findings to better assess systemic risk in interconnected financial markets across emerging economies.

Exploring the relationship between government subsidies, market competition, and the digital transformation of cultural and tourism enterprises (CTEs) will provide inspiration for upgrading and promoting the digitization development of China’s cultural and tourism industry. This paper theoretically and empirically evaluates the effect of government subsidies on digital transformation of CTEs by developing an evolutionary game combined with Hotelling model, and meanwhile using the econometric model. The theoretical model demonstrates that different subsidy scale will affect the evolutionary efficiency of the system under different market competition intensities. And the empirical model shows that the relationship between government subsidies and the digital transformation of CTEs is a U-shaped curve and the market competition exerts the flattening moderation on the U-shaped relationship. The findings provide guidance to both policymakers and managers.

The impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on firm performance is an emerging issue in both practice and research. However, discussions surrounding the effect of AI on productivity are enshrouded in a paradoxical quandary. This study examines the relationship between AI implementation and total factor productivity (TFP), considering the moderation effects of digital infrastructure quality, business diversification, and demand uncertainty. Using data from 2155 Chinese firms over 2016-2021, our empirical analysis reveals a nuanced pattern: while moderate AI implementation achieves the best TFP, excessive and insufficient implementation yields diminishing returns. The curvature of this inverted U-shaped relationship flattens with higher levels of digital infrastructure quality but steepens when firms undertake diversified businesses and face heightened demand uncertainty. The findings suggest that the impact of AI on TFP is not universally beneficial, and the relationship between AI and TFP varies across different contexts. These findings also provide implications on how firms can strategically implement AI to maximize its value.

The study introduces 'earnings purity,' a concept based on the 'gold content' of target earnings, to evaluate its impact on merger and acquisition (M&A) premiums. Our findings reveal that targets with higher earnings purity command increased valuations and premiums. Further analysis of the information effects uncovers a U-shaped relationship between earnings purity and negotiation duration, suggesting that elevated premiums might not always be justified. The heterogeneity test indicates that the effect of a target firm's earnings purity on M&A premiums is more pronounced in cross-border and inter-industry M&As. However, it is less influential in cases with larger target firms and better external conditions. These results highlight the dual aspects of M&As, presenting them as both advantageous and potentially hazardous.

Suppliers’ bargaining power mainly comes from their market position or top supplier status. However, it is also affected by the horizontal competition from top supplier size homogeneity based on the purchasing proportion of a buyer. Using a sample of listed companies in China, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the supplier size homogeneity with shared customers and trade credit provisions. As size homogeneity increases, suppliers may increase (decrease) trade credit provision to expand sales (for cash income). That is, based on the degree of supplier size homogeneity, the homogeneity may strengthen or weaken the supplier competition effect. We also find that if upstream and downstream firms have associated relationships, or if the business environment is poor, the competition effect from supplier size homogeneity is not obvious, whereas the weak financing ability of buyer promotes the supplier competition. In addition, the competition effect from supplier size homogeneity is not observed in state-owned firms.

There are large regional disparities in relation to the development of digital finance in China. This study expands on the human–land relationship to analyze the impact of terrain relief on digital finance adoption using China Household Finance Survey data. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship. Further, mechanism analysis indicates that terrain relief influences the wealth creation environment and stimulates the likelihood of entrepreneurship, especially through small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, the impact is more pronounced in rural and western areas. These findings provide insights enabling the development of a more inclusive financial system.

Overseas compliance management is crucial for multinationals to operate with high character, but existing research has paid little attention to emerging multinationals’ overseas misconduct. Focusing on different directions and the interaction of the institutional gap and aspiration gap, we conducted an empirical analysis of a sample of Chinese multinationals who engaged in outward direct investment from 2009 to 2021 and found that in the case of a negative institutional gap, there is a positive linear correlation between a positive/negative aspiration gap and overseas misconduct. In the case of apositive institutional gap, there is a U-shaped relationship between a positive aspiration gap and overseas misconduct, and an inverted U-shaped relationship between a negative aspiration gap and overseas misconduct. Research conclusions bridge the divergence of the institutional paradox and aspiration paradox, provide a nuanced understanding on overseas misconduct, and distinguish different situations to guide emerging multinationals to operate in compliance overseas.

The caliber of export products is a microcosmic reffection of economic development quality. This study seeks to elucidate the inffuence of environmental regulation on product quality, integrating the role of the skill premium as shaped by environmental regulation within a Dixit-Stiglitz CES production function model. Additionally, we empirically scrutinize the interplay between environmental regulation, skill premium, and product quality, utilizing Chinese customs export data in conjunction with data from listed companies spanning 2003-2015. The conclusions drawn from our theoretical analysis and empirical veriffcation reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and product quality, which is tempered by the skill premium. Moreover, a signiffcant positive correlation exists between environmental regulation and the skill premium. Similarly, the relationship between the skill premium and product quality manifests an inverted U-shape. Notably, an elevated skill premium markedly bolsters the enhancement of product quality through green innovation. These insights underscore the need for balanced environmental regulations and strategic investment in skilled labor to augment product quality. This serves as a valuable compass for policymakers and businesses endeavoring for green innovation and high-quality, sustainable economic growth.