financial stability

  • 详情 Does digital transformation enhance bank soundness? Evidence from Chinese commercial banks
    Compared to previous literature on external FinTech, this paper is more interested in the role played by bank FinTech. Based on panel data from Chinese commercial banks spanning 2010 to 2021, this paper investigates the impact of digital transformation on bank soundness and its potential mechanisms. The empirical findings demonstrate a positive association between digital transformation and bank soundness, driven primarily by strategic and management digitization. Mechanistic analysis indicates that digital transformation improves bank soundness by mitigating risk-taking behavior and promoting diversification. The positive effect of digital transformation is more pronounced in state-owned and joint-stock banks, banks with higher liquidity mismatch as well as in sub-samples with greater levels in external FinTech development and economic policies uncertainty. Additional analysis suggests that digital transformation can still enhance bank soundness even in the presence of relatively easy monetary and macroprudential policies, highlighting the harmonization and complementarity between internal innovation from digital transformation and external regulatory policies in maintaining banking stability. Overall, this paper contributes to the literature on bank FinTech, factors influencing bank stability. And it also provides a novel explanation for the relationship between financial innovation and financial stability.
  • 详情 Does Equity Over-Financing Promote Wealth Management Product Purchases Insights from China's Listed Companies
    As China’s shadow banking sector expands, the impact of listed companies’ involvement in financial stability and the real economy accumulates increasing attention. Despite being a crucial channel for non-financial firms to participate in shadow banking, the literature has given limited consideration to the acquisition of wealth management products (WMPs). Using data from Chinese listed firms between 2007 and 2020, we analyze how excessive equity financing affects companies’ WMP acquisitions. Our findings indicate that over-financing significantly boosts WMP purchases among these firms, particularly in cases of private ownership, raised environmental uncertainty, and strict financing constraints.
  • 详情 Alternative Financial Institutions in China
    This chapter introduces alternative financial institutions (AFIs) in China that do not fall within traditional financial institution (FI) models. We describe their business models and development dynamics in the context of economic and financial reforms and technological advancement. We find that various AFIs are formed based on social, business, and virtual networks to overcome capital allocation barriers, reduce costs, or improve efficiency, providing financial services for the underserved. However, without proper regulations, these AFIs could pose alarming levels of risk on financial stability. They repeat a boom-and-bust pattern, in parallel with the government's initial laissez faire approach but later harsh interferences: being taken over by formal FIs or shut down as illegal practices until the exceptional Ant-Financial case. Improving investors' financial knowledge and regulators’ competency is critical for China to advance its financial system and develop mature FIs and AFIs. We recommend key features required in such a regulatory framework.
  • 详情 Valuation Effects of US-China Trade Conflict: The Role of Institutional Investors
    Employing an event study approach on the US-China trade conflict, we find that Chinese listed firms with institutional investor holdings exhibit smaller announcement loss than their counterparts. We also examine the heterogeneous effects of firms. Specifically, the positive effect of institutional investor holding is larger for firms with foreign exposure or in provinces with higher degree of marketization. Besides, institutional investor holding also reduces firms' financial cost of refinancing and improves their long-run performance given the same announcement loss. These findings help understand the role of institutional investor in achieving financial stability from the micro perspective.
  • 详情 CHINA IN TAX HAVENS
    We document the rise of China in offshore capital markets. Chinese firms use global tax havens to access foreign capital both in equity and bond markets. In the last twenty years, China's presence went from raising a negligible amount of capital in these markets to accounting for more than half of equity issuance and around a fifth of global corporate bonds outstanding in tax havens. Using rich micro data, we show that a range of Chinese firms, including both tech giants and SOEs, use these offshore centers. We conclude by discussing the macroeconomic and financial stability implications of these patterns.
  • 详情 The Crumbling Wall between Crypto and Non-Crypto Markets: Risk Transmission through Stablecoins
    The crypto and noncrypto markets used to be separated from each other. We argue that with the rapid development of stablecoins since 2018, risks are now transmitted between the crypto and noncrypto markets through stablecoins, which are both pegged to noncrypto assets and play a central role in crypto trading. Applying copula-based CoVaR approaches, we find significant risk spillovers between stablecoins and cryptocurrencies as well as between stablecoins and noncrypto markets, which could help explain the tail dependency between the crypto and noncrypto markets from 2019 to 2021. We also document that the risk spillovers through stablecoins are asymmetric—stronger in the direction from the US dollar to the crypto market than vice versa—which suggests the crypto market is re-dollarizing. Further analyses consider alternative explanations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and institutional crypto holdings, and determine that the primary channels of risk transmission are stablecoins’ US dollar peg to the noncrypto market and their transaction-medium function in the crypto ecosystem. Our results have important implications for financial stability and shed light on the future of stablecoin regulation.
  • 详情 崩溃的墙:加密货币与非加密货币市场之间通过稳定币的风险传导
    The crypto and noncrypto markets used to be separated from each other. We argue that with the rapid development of stablecoins since 2018, risks are now transmitted between the crypto and noncrypto markets through stablecoins, which are both pegged to noncrypto assets and play a central role in crypto trading. Applying copula-based CoVaR approaches, we find significant risk spillovers between stablecoins and cryptocurrencies as well as between stablecoins and noncrypto markets, which could help explain the tail dependency between the crypto and noncrypto markets from 2019 to 2021. We also document that the risk spillovers through stablecoins are asymmetric—stronger in the direction from the US dollar to the crypto market than vice versa—which suggests the crypto market is re-dollarizing. Further analyses consider alternative explanations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and institutional crypto holdings, and determine that the primary channels of risk transmission are stablecoins' US dollar peg to the noncrypto market and their transaction-medium function in the crypto ecosystem. Our results have important implications for financial stability and shed light on the future of stablecoin regulation.
  • 详情 Hidden Non-Performing Loans in China
    We study non-performing loan (NPL) transactions in China using proprietary data from a leading market participant. We find these transactions – driven by tighter financial regulation – are consistent with banks concealing non-performing assets from regulators as (i) transaction prices do not compensate for credit risks; (ii) banks fund the NPL transactions and remain responsible for debt collection; and (iii) 70% of NPL packages are re-sold at inflated prices to bank clients. These results imply NPL transactions do not truly resolve NPLs. Recognizing the hidden NPLs implies the total NPLs in China is two to four times the reported amount.
  • 详情 Wealth Management Products, Banking Competition, and Stability: Evidence from China
    Shadow financing through off-balance sheet wealth management products (WMPs) has become increasingly important besides deposits in China. We quantify the economic magnitude of the effect of WMPs on banking stability in an equilibrium model calibrated to Chinese banking sector data. Alternative equilibria emerge, which deviate substantially from the observed banking system and lead to severe financial distress and large welfare losses. Rollover costs from the WMP market and negative shocks to the asset market underlying WMPs can exacerbate banking instability. Moreover, we show that smaller and medium sized banks are comparably relevant for financial stability as the systemically important big 4 banks in China.
  • 详情 A Factor-Augmented VAR Analysis on the Monetary Policy in China
    This paper investigates the monetary policy in China over the last decades with a typical emphasis on the post-Asian crisis period. A Factor-Augmented VAR method is used to study several important monetary policy instruments and their effects on the stabilization of the Chinese economy. We find that the 7-day repo rate and a general monetary guidance, which is represented by a factor, are effective in stimulating the economic performance by promoting industrial production. However, the effects of monetary policy on price levels are still weak. A policy instrument with explicit inflation target will be a better way for China to stabilize domestic inflation, and thereby to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability.