limits to arbitrage

  • 详情 Dissecting Momentum in China
    Why is price momentum absent in China? Since momentum is commonly considered arising from investors’ under-reaction to fundamental news, we decompose monthly stock returns into news- and non-news-driven components and document a news day return continuation along with an offsetting non-news day reversal in China. The non-news day reversal is particularly strong for stocks with high retail ownership, relatively less recent positive news articles, and limits to arbitrage. Evidence on order imbalance suggests that stock returns overshoot on news days due to retail investors' excessive attention-driven buying demands, and mispricing gets corrected by institutional investors on subsequent non-news days. To avoid this tug-of-war in stock price, we use a signal that directly captures the recent news performance and re-document a momentum-like underreaction to fundamental news in China.
  • 详情 The No-Short Return Premium
    Using the unique regulatory setting from the Hong Kong stock market with both shortable and no-short stocks, we document that no-short stocks on average earn significantly higher average returns than shortable stocks. Furthermore, stocks that comove more with the portfolio of no-short stocks than with the portfolio of shortable stocks on average earn higher subsequent abnormal returns. Additions to and deletions from the shorting list only partially contribute to the no-short return premium. To interpret our findings, we provide a theoretical model showing that rational investors’ discounting for the mispricing risk of no-short stocks can lead to the no-short return premium.
  • 详情 Switching to Floating Inverts Price Discovery for China's Dual Listed Stocks: High-Frequency Evidence
    This paper examines whether China’s switch back and forth from fixed to floating exchange rates in 2005 and 2008 changed the contribution to stock price discovery by foreign and domestic investors. During that time, mainland investors could only trade the RMB-denominated A-shares in the domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, while the dual-listed HKD-denominated H-shares were available only to overseas investors. Using intraday data on overlapping trading hours, we find that the switch from a fixed rate to managed floating in July 2005 increased the H-shares’ contribution to price discovery; while the exchange rate regime reversal in July 2008 allowed the domestic stocks to regain their dominance in information shares. These results imply that, in a market subject to restrictions on capital flows, a flexible exchange rate regime increases the propensity of investors to trade foreign-issued stocks to speculate on the RMB exchange rate, which raises overseas investors’ contribution to price discovery.