• 详情 Motivated Extrapolative Beliefs
    This study investigates the relationship between investors’ prior gains or losses and their adoption of extrapolative beliefs. Our findings indicate that investors facing prior losses tend to rely on optimistic extrapolative beliefs, whereas those experiencing prior gains adopt pessimistic extrapolative beliefs. These results support the theory of motivated beliefs. The interaction between the capital gain overhang and extrapolative beliefs results in noteworthy mispricing, yielding monthly returns of approximately 1%. Motivated extrapolative beliefs comove with investors’ survey expectations and trading behavior, and help explain momentum anomalies. Additionally, households are susceptible to this belief distortion. Institutional investors can avoid overpriced stocks associated with motivated (over-)optimistic extrapolative beliefs.
  • 详情 Short-Selling Cost and Implied Volatility Spreads: Evidence from the Chinese Sse 50etf Options Market
    This paper will partially solve the puzzle of implied volatility spreads from the perspective of short-selling (option-implied borrowing rate). Specifically, we use Chinese SSE 50 ETF options data to examine the relationship between the option-implied volatility spreads and option-implied borrow rate. Using nonparametric regression models, we find that there is a clear negative correlation between the implied volatility spreads and the implied borrowing rate. Furthermore, our results show that there is a significant nonlinearity between these two variables. Finally, it is interesting to note that the option volatility spreads are zero when the option prices include the short selling cost.
  • 详情 China’s Pursuit of Central Bank Digital Currency: Reasons, Prospects and Implications
    Amongst major economies, China has been taking a lead in the development of central bank digital currency (CBDC), which has generated widespread interest and impact around the globe. China’s CBDC, commonly known as e-CNY, is designed with several distinctive features, enabling it to compare favorably to other payment methods such as credit cards, mobile payment, unbacked cryptocurrency, and stablecoins. A variety of social, economic, political, and regulatory reasons can be identified to help explain China’s active pursuit of CBDC. However, the prospect of success will be affected by many factors and may vary between the domestic and international markets. This paper argues that the adoption of eCNY will likely succeed domestically, but may face more challenges in the international markets. The development of e-CNY seems to have created a catfish effect on other major economies in the race for CBDC. It is not fully clear, however, that the CBDC race will be better explained by the first-mover or the late-mover advantage theory. The CBDC project will have both public and private law implications, and several legal issues warrant particular attention in relation to the legal status of CBCD, the role and responsibility of the central bank, legal remedies for losses suffered by CBDC users from cybersecurity issues and operational problems, and the issue of data privacy and protection.
  • 详情 Tech for Stronger Financial Market Performance: Role of AI in Stock Price Crash Risk
    The increasing awareness and adoption of technology, particularly artificial intelligence, are reshaping industries and daily life. This study explores how adopting artificial intelligence (AoAI) influences stock price crash risk for Chinese A-share listed companies between 2010 and 2020. The primary findings emphasize AoAI's significant role in reducing stock price crash likelihood, enhancing financial market performance, and mitigating manager opportunism. Further, the research identifies varied effects of AoAI on crash risk among different enterprise types, notably benefiting non-state-owned and non-foreign businesses. Additionally, the study finding supports the notion that financial analysts enhance transparency, reducing the risk of stock price crashes. These results underscore the Chinese government's role in shaping the digital economy. Overall, the study's findings remain consistent and robust across statistical methods like 2SLS, PSM, SysGMM, and instrumental variable analysis.
  • 详情 Self-Control and Commitment in Consumer Credit Markets
    We analyze the effect of commitment devices designed to mitigate self-control problems in consumer credit markets. We draw on data from a large peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform that introduced a "direct-pay" disbursement method for debt refinancing. Instead of dispersing cash, the direct-pay option transfers the loan directly to the borrower's existing creditors, with the goal of curbing impulsive, discretionary spending and screening for creditworthy borrowers. We find that borrowers who choose the direct-pay option exhibit lower default rates compared to those who received cash, suggesting success in attracting creditworthy borrowers and promoting responsible financial decisions. To analyze the complicated dynamics in this setting, we further develop and estimate a dynamic structural model of borrowers' loan choice and repayment behavior. We find that self-control problems account for 10% of the defaults in the market and that introducing the direct-pay option reduces default rates by 8%. We conduct several counterfactual simulations and explore alternative strategies for alleviating self-control problems in consumer lending.
  • 详情 The Unintended Consequence of Discipline Inspections as an Anti-Corruption Tool on Managerial Incentives
    From 2013 onwards, the Chinese central government has subjected the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to ‘disciplinary inspections’ to weed out and punish graft and other corruption. While this policy has been somewhat successful in punishing corruption—over 160 top SOE officials have been indicted—we show that the principal economic impact of these inspections has been to significantly cut investment by targeted firms, leading to a major decline in profitability, innovation and Tobin’s Q. Expenditures on R&D, entertainment, and travel also decline dramatically. The most obvious explanation is that the fear induced in SOE managers, who have limited risk-promoting equity holdings or incentive compensation and few external employment options, deterred them from taking risky but value-enhancing investments post-audit.
  • 详情 SMEs Amidst the Pandemic and Reopening: Digital Edge and Transformation
    Using administrative universal business registration data as well as primary offline and online surveys of small businesses (including unregistered self-employments) in China, we examine (i) whether digitization helps small and medium enterprises (SMEs) better cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, and (ii) whether the pandemic has spurred digital technology adoption. We document significant economic benefits of digitization in increasing SMEs' resilience against such a large shock, as seen through mitigated demand decline, sustainable cash flow, ability to quickly reopen, and positive outlook for growth. Post the January 2020 lockdown, firm entries exhibited a V-shaped pattern, with entries of e-commerce firms experiencing a less pronounced immediate drop and a quicker rebound. Moreover, the pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation of existing firms and the industry in multiple dimensions (e.g., altering operation scope to include e-commerce, allowing remote work, and adopting electronic information systems). The effect persists more than one year after reopening, and is more pronounced for certain sectors, firms in industrial clusters, and areas with more digital inclusion but less financial efficiency, constituting initial evidence for the long-term impact of the pandemic and the supposedly transitory mitigation policies.
  • 详情 A p Theory of Government Debt, Taxes, and Inflation
    An optimal tax and borrowing plan determines the marginal cost of servicing government debt, p', and makes the government’s debt risk-free. An option to default restricts debt capacity. Optimal debt-GDP ratio dynamics are driven by 1) a primary deficit, 2) interest payments, 3) GDP growth, and 4) hedging costs. Hedging influences debt capacity and debt transition dynamics. For plausible parameter values, we make comparative dynamic quantitative statements about debt-GDP ratio transition dynamics, debt capacity, and how long it would take our example economy to attain that calibrated equilibrium debt capacity.
    Declining worker bargaining power has been advanced as an explanation for dramatic generational changes in the U.S. macroeconomic environment such as the substantial decline in labor’s share of the national income, the loss of consumer purchasing power, and growing income and wealth inequality. In this paper, we investigate microeconomic implications by examining the effect of declining worker power on firm-level investment responses to a labor cost shock (mandated increases in the minimum wage). Over the past four decades, we find that investment-wage sensitivities go from negative to insignificant as management becomes less constrained and can pursue outside options. Consistent with drivers of weakening worker power, investment-wage sensitivity changes are more significant for firms that are more exposed to globalization, technological change, and declining unionization.
  • 详情 From Wall Street to Hong Kong: The Value of Dual Listing for China Concept Stocks
    The U.S. stock market has long been the most popular venue for both foreign companies and global investors. The recent cross-border regulation tensions between the U.S. and China, however, have exposed many U.S.-listed China Concepts Stocks (CCS) to substantial de-listing risks, forcing them to pursue dual listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX). In this paper, we quantify the economic value of dual-listing, using the SEC’s adoption of the ffnal amendments implementing mandates of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) on December 2, 2021 as a natural experiment. We estimate that CCS with pre-shock dual-listing status on average have 14.88% higher returns, or USD 8 billion in market capitalization, than their peers listed only on the U.S. exchanges during a three-month period after the shock. Our ffndings survive a set of robustness checks, including parallel trends test, alternative treatment and control groups based on the qualiffed but not yet dual-listed CCS, and various sub-sample and placebo analyses. In addition to stock returns, dual-listed CCS are also less adversely affected in trading volume, volatility, and liquidity. Our ffndings highlight the large economic impact of the escalating political U.S.-China tensions on the global ffnancial markets.