unemployment

  • 详情 Minimum Wage and Strikes: Evidence from China
    This study examines whether and how minimum wage hikes affect workers’ strikes in the context of China. We show that minimum wage significantly increases strikes at the city-level, and this effect is mainly motivated by demands for unpaid wages and severance pay. Mechanism analysis reveals that workers’ strikes are caused by inevitable involuntary unemployment arising from wage hikes. In addition, the increase in workers’ strike activities is more significant in tertiary industries, which require a larger share of low-wage workers and in regions with a higher degree of digital economy and innovation. Our findings provide clear policy implications for policymakers concerned with minimum wage and unemployment.
  • 详情 Local Government Debt and Corporate Labor Decisions: Evidence From China
    From the perspective of corporate labor employment, we examine whether debt pressure on local governments prompts them to shift part of their social responsibilities to local firms. We conduct an analysis on Chinese local government debt (LGD) data and find that when LGD is higher, local firms are less likely to cut labor costs when their sales decrease, indicating greater labor cost stickiness. We attribute this to the responsibility-shifting effect, i.e., with heavier debt burdens, local governments intervene more in corporate labor decisions by restricting employee layoffs. Consistent with this argument, we find that the effect of LGD on labor cost stickiness is more pronounced for state-owned and politically connected firms; in regions with lower marketization levels and government fiscal self-sufficient capacities; and when regional unemployment rates, macroeconomic uncertainty, and political risk are higher. We show that through responsibilityshiftingamid high LGD, local governments benefit from a reduction in social expenditures. However, firms with stickier current labor costs will have lower subsequent productivity and market value, despite local governments reciprocating with more subsidies. Overall, LGD not only adversely impacts firm financing through the crowding-out effect but also erodes firm value through the responsibility-shifting effect.
  • 详情 Losing Trust when Pursuing Development: How Automation Hindered Political Trust in China?
    The side effect of automation on the economy has been discussed frequently, but little is known regarding its political consequences. This paper examines the causal effect that automation induces political costs for the local government. By combining the national individual-level panel data of political trust with the prefecture-level robot exposure rate in China biennially during the period 2012– 2018, we find that the development of automation would incur lower political trust in the Chinese local government. Furthermore, the impact may result from the risk of unemployment, intensified pessimism about local government, higher downside risk, and declining group participation, providing a few channels for the automation process to affect citizens’political trust. This paper provides empirical evidence for the impact of automation and the source of political legitimacy, contributing to the literature about automation by emphasizing the crucial role of government in coping with the technological progress and making good use of endogenous creative destruction.
  • 详情 The Effect of the Digital Divide on Household Consumption in China
    Over the past decade, the rapidly digitizing economy in China has attracted much attention in both academic and policy circles. Most existing studies focus on the positive impact digitalization has had on China's inclusive growth. Few of them have attempted to measure the widening digital divide and its potential impact. Using the 2017 and 2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data, this paper: (i) provides the first evidence that the digital divide has a significant negative impact on household consumption. For every unit increase in the digital divide, the level of household consumption will drop by about 28 percent; (ii) finds the negative impact stems from an integrated channel of rising unemployment, intensified liquidity constraints, and declining financial literacy; and (iii) further discloses that the digital divide has differential impacts on household consumption by category, while hinders consumption diversification. The results are robust to correcting for potential endogeneity due to sample selection, household heterogeneity, and reverse causality. Our findings shed new light on some little-documented evidence and have profound implications for related socio-economic policies that fully utilize technology to drive efficiency and inclusivity in the digital economy.
  • 详情 The Political Economy of Corporate Finance: Evidence from ‘Re-nationalization’ in China
    We investigate the power structure of the Chinese political system and explore its implications on corporate finance. With a large sample of firms from 1999-2007, we document large-scale ‘re-nationalization’—local governments re-establish controlling ownership stakes in previously privatized firms. We find that firms located in provinces with newly appointed, top-ranked Party leaders who do not belong to any of the three dominant political factions are more likely to be renationalized. With a number of instrument variables, including the political status of the top-ranked provincial party leaders, we find that re-nationalization leads to lower sales and labor productivity for the firms. We also find some evidence that re-nationalization temporarily lowers the unemployment rate in the region without any significant, long-term economic benefits.
  • 详情 货币政策利率工具有效性的实证研究
    利率工具作为央行货币政策的重要组成部分,也是实施货币政策的主要手段之一。中央银行根据货币政策实施的需要,适时地运用利率工具,对利率水平和结构进行调整,以此影响社会资金供求状况,调节微观经济主体的具体经济行为,进而实现既定的货币政策目标。 自2008年经济危机以来,中国人民银行多次利用存款准备金率和利率工具对国家宏观经济进行调节,特别是2010年以来为了应对由之前过度宽松货币政策导致的严重通胀形势,央行5次提高存贷款基准利率,12次提高存款准备金率至21.5%的历史高位。尽管如此,但是国内利率水平依然处在低位,实际利率持续为负。存准率过度提高导致货币供给大幅减少,利率水平维持低位使货币需求上升,这样扭曲的货币政策导致了我国宏观经济在各方面的失衡,并且遭到了来自各界的非议。究竟利率工具的宏观经济调控效果如何呢,为何央行不愿意使用价格型货币政策工具——利率进行调控呢?虽然目前存准率工具的使用次数要远多于利率工具,但是随着今后利率市场化改革的深入推进和我国金融体制的开放改革,今后利率调控工具将会成为央行调节宏观经济运行节奏的主要手段。因此,研究利率政策调控对宏观经济的影响将有助于我们明确利率调控的效果、认清宏观经济变化的原因,在利率市场化的背景下也能够为央行制定科学的货币政策提供决策依据。 本文是按照“回顾改革以来利率政策的调整历史→实际利率变动对主要宏观经济目标的实证检验→影响利率政策效果的原因分析→增强利率调控效果的政策建议”的基本思路,展开全文的分析讨论。在对改革开放三十年以来的利率政策历史回顾分析的基础上,采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,对利率变动与经济增长率、通货膨胀率以及城镇登记失业率进行实证检验,得出不同阶段实际利率的变化对不同宏观经济目标的影响。在此基础上得出全文结论,实际利率与经济增长率的关系从正相关逐渐发展为负相关,与通胀率则是显著的负相关,而实际利率与城镇登记失业率则呈现很弱的相关性。然后具体分析影响我国利率政策调控宏观经济效果的原因,主要包括利率管制政策、金融市场发展建设及经济主体行为三个方面。最后在前文讨论的基础上提出增强利率调控效果的政策建议,主要包括放松利率管制、继续推进利率市场化改革、完善货币市场发展建设、加强央行宏观调控能力等方面。 Interest rate policy is an important component of monetary policy,also the one main instruments of monetary policy implementation.According to the People’s Bank of China monetary policy needs in a timely manner,use of interest rate tools,include the level of interest rates and interest rate structure in order to affect the supply and demand of funds,micro-economic regulation of the main acts,and to achieve monetary policy objectives. After 2008 world economic crisis, the interest rate and deposit-reserve ratio has been changed more times to adjust China’s macroeconomic. Especially since 2010 to cope with the serious inflation caused by the prior overly lax monetary policy, the central bank raised the benchmark deposit and lending interest rates 5 times and 12 times to raise the deposit reserve ratio to 21.5% highs. In spite of this, but the domestic interest rate level is still low, the real interest rate is negative for longtime. Money supply is greatly reduced by the excessive increase of deposit reserve ratio, and monetary demand rises because the level of interest rates remains low. Such distortion of the monetary policy in our country makes our macro economy imbalance in all aspects, and has received criticism from all walks of life. How about the interest rate tool of macroeconomic regulation and control effect, why the central bank is not willing to use price monetary policy tools -- interest rate regulation? Although the deposit-reserve ratio has been changed more than the interest rate, but with the market-oriented reform of interest rate and financial system, interest rate regulation will be the main method of macroeconomic adjusting control. So studying on macroeconomic effects of real interest rate would help us to be more clearly knowing the results of the interest rate policy and understanding the reasons for changes in the economy. Furthermore,in our country, the interest rate is not fully market-oriented, the study is also helpful for authorities to make the correct monetary and interest rate policy. “Review the history of interest rate policy adjustment from Reform and Opening up→the empirical test of real interest rate on the main macroeconomic goals→the reasons analysis which have influence on the effects of interest rate policy→the policy recommendations which make interest rate regulation more effective" This is the main train of thought of this paper, around which expand the analysis and discussion. Based on the review of the history of interest rate policy after Reform and Opening-up from 1980, used the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, through analyzed the effects of real interest rates which impacted on the three macroeconomic objectives, include the GDP growth rate、the inflation rate and the urban registered unemployment rate, we get the result that in different stages, the interest rate policy have different impacts on economic objectives. At the last, we get the whole conclusion and analyzed the reasons which caused interest rate policy to be ineffective on the macro economy. Finally, according to China’s financial market, this paper gave some reform suggestions which can make interest rate policy to be more effective on macro economic adjusting control.
  • 详情 The Stock Market and Aggregate Employment
    We study the connection between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast longhorizon growth in the marginal bene?t of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that high values of the risk premiums forecast low payroll growth and increases in unemployment rate in the short run, but high payroll growth and decreases in unemployment rate in the long run. High values of lagged payroll growth and decreases in lagged unemployment rate also forecast low stock market excess returns.
  • 详情 Bank Loans with Chinese Characteristics:Some Evidence on Inside Debt in a State-Controlled Banking System
    We study financial market contracts and signals in a transitional economy where state-controlled banks may lend to weak firms to avert unemployment and social instability. Our sample of Chinese corporate borrowers reveals that that poorer financial performance and higher managerial expenses increase the likelihood of obtaining a bank loan, and bank loan approval predicts poor subsequent borrower performance. Furthermore, negative event-study responses are observed at bank loan announcements, particularly if the borrower measures poorly on quality and creditworthiness. Our results document the dilemmas that arise in a state-led financial system and the local stock market’s sophistication in interpreting news.
  • 详情 The Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: An Agnostic View
    The supposed undervaluation of the renminbi has been the subject of intensive academic research over the past few years. Using equilibrium exchange rate models (Purchasing Power Parity, BEER and FEER), many authors have concluded that the renminbi is undervalued by 15 to 30% against the dollar. This article shows that the common view is not that obvious. The models used in the estimation (BEER or FEER) assume that the economy is at full-employment, a strong hypothesis for developing economies such as China, whose unemployed amount to 150 million people. On the contrary, we show that China is facing massive unemployment and if investment depends on expected potential demand (from domestic consumption and foreign demand), then an undervalued exchange rate (by traditional standards) is suited for its policy objectives. Therefore the exchange rate can be analyzed as a policy tool used by the Chinese authorities to pursue their objectives. The exchange rate can be undervalued by traditional standards and in equilibrium compared to the government's policy objectives. This article shows that equilibrium exchange rate theories are not suited for developing countries and therefore the concept of equilibrium exchange rate is highly questionable. The final section analyzes the adoption of a managed float regime by the Popular Bank of China and discusses the delicate issue of the best exchange rate regime for China.