• 详情 The Indirect Effects of Trading Restrictions
    Stock market trading restrictions affect stock prices and liquidity directly through constraints on investors’ transactions and indirectly by altering the information environment. We isolate this indirect effect by analyzing how stock market restrictions affect corporate-bond prices. Exploiting the staggered relaxations of trading restrictions in the Chinese stock market as a quasi-natural experiment, we document that the easing of trading restrictions on a firm’s stock decreases the credit spread of its corporate bond. This effect is stronger for firms with less transparency or lower credit ratings. Our evidence suggests that the effect is likely due to improved stock price informativeness.
  • 详情 极端市场条件下指令不平衡与收益之间的关系——来自我国股市 2014-2015年的经验研究
    最近2014-2015年我国股市出现大幅波动,这为研究极端市场条件下指令不平衡与收益之间关系提供了一个理想的研究背景。本文基于上证50成分股的高频数据,研究了极端市场条件下指令不平衡与收益的关系。我们发现:(1)指令不平衡与收益在横截面上正相关,相比于正常市场条件相关性在极端市场条件下更大;(2)指令不平衡与同期收益呈现显著正的相关且熊市期间的相关性要显著强于牛市期间,指令不平衡与同期收益的关系随着市场状态的变化而变化;(3)指令不平衡对收益具有显著的预测能力且在牛市和熊市期间预测能力相差不大;(4)以上结论在控制Fama-French三因子后依然成立。本文研究结果表明在极端市场条件下价格有效性较低,我国股市有效性亟待完善。
  • 详情 The magnet effect of circuit breakers: A role of price jumps and market liquidity
    This paper studies the magnet effect of market-wide circuit breakers and examines its possible forms using high-frequency data from the Chinese stock index futures market. Unlike previous studies that mainly analyzed the price trend and volatility, this paper is the first to consider the intraday price jump behavior in studying the magnet effect. We find that when a market-wide trading halt is imminent, the probability of a price decrease and the level of market volatility remain stable. However, the conditional probability of observing a price jump increases significantly, leading to a higher possibility of triggering market-wide circuit breakers, which is in support of the magnet effect hypothesis. In addition, we find a significant increase in liquidity demand and insignificant change in liquidity supply ahead of a market-wide trading halt, suggesting that the deterioration of market liquidity may play an important role in explaining the magnet effect.
  • 详情 新三板股票流动性、估值水平与分层制度
    本文研究了新三板于2016年首次实施的分层制度对挂牌公司股票流动性、估值水平与资本投资效率的影响。实证结果表明,相比于基础层公司,进入创新层使得挂牌公司股票的实际成交交易日的间隔天数平均减少了7.71个交易日,以市净率所衡量的公司估值水平提升了11.6%。从对公司实体的长远影响来看,以投资现金流敏感度衡量的资本投资效率也得到了显著提升,并且进入创新层有效降低了融资约束引发的投资现金流敏感性。本文的研究结果表明,相比于基础层公司,新三板分层制度的实施不仅使得创新层公司的股票流动性和估值水平得到了提升,还有效地提升了公司实体的资本投资效率。
  • 详情 数字普惠金融是否缩小了城乡居民收入差距?——基于中国省际数据的面板门槛分析
    本文选用 2011-2018 年省级面板数据作为研究样本, 构建线性面板模型及面板门槛模型, 验证数字普惠金融的发展对城乡收入差距的影响及其门槛效应, 并进一步进行中介效应检验。 研究结果显示, 数字普惠金融的发展能有效缩小城乡居民收入差距, 且具有门槛效应, 在经济发展初期, 这一收敛作用效果更为明显。 中介效应分析推断出数字普惠金融能缩小城乡居民收入差距并且促进经济发展, 而经济发展水平的提升却能小幅度地扩大城乡居民收入差距, 但总体来说, 仍以数字普惠金融对城乡居民收入差距的收敛作用为主导效应。
  • 详情 数据机构在金融领域的功能及监管研究
    近几年, 全球数字经济快速发展, 再加上新冠肺炎疫情的冲击, 金融机构的数字化转型已成为明显趋势。 数字经济的发展催生了海量数据需求, 促使数据行业快速成长。 而数据机构作为数据市场的重要参与者, 不断地渗入到金融服务领域之中, 改变了金融行业的结构, 推动了普惠金融的发展, 同时也产生了包括数据隐私泄露、 算法歧视、 数据垄断等在内的一系列风险。 如何做到既鼓励金融机构利用数据机构的服务实现产业赋能, 又有效规避双方合作过程中存在的风险, 成为了大数据时代金融监管的研究热点。 本文首先按照金融机构与数据机构合作的四大主要应用场景具体分析了数据机构在金融领域的功能, 以及双方在开放合作过程中存在的风险隐患。 其次, 本文选取美国、 欧盟、 英国、 新加坡、 中国香港五个代表性国家和地区详细梳理了国际上为了防范第三方数据公司为金融机构带来的风险相关的监管经验。 最后, 借鉴国际经验, 结合国内对于金融领域第三方数据公司的监管现状, 以及我国国情, 提出四点监管对策建议。
  • 详情 Overpricing in China’s Corporate Bond Market
    Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese corporate bond issuances, we uncover substantial evidence of issuance overpricing: the yield spread of newly issued bonds at their first secondary-market trading day is on average 5.35 bps higher than the issuance spread. This overpricing is robust across subsamples of bond issuances with different credit ratings, maturities, issuance types, and issuer status. We further provide extensive evidence to support a hypothesis that competition among underwriters drives this overpricing through two specific channels—either through rebates to participants in issuance auctions or through direct auction bidding by the underwriters for themselves or their clients.
  • 详情 The SOE Premium and Government Support in China's Credit Market
    Studying China’s credit market, we find improved price efficiency and, paradoxically, worsening segmentation as perceived government support for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) caused non-SOE credit spreads to explode rather dramatically relative to their SOE counterparts amid government-led credit tightening. Interestingly, the post-2018 credit-market stress helped improve price efficiency within non-SOEs, while SOEs saw no such improvement and instead became sensitive to issuer-level measures of government support, marking a shift of SOE premium beyond the SOE label. We further document the real impact of the deepening credit misallocations: non-SOEs in aggregate are losing their long-standing advantage in profitability over SOEs in China.
  • 详情 FinTech Platforms and Mutual Fund Distribution
    This paper studies the economic impact of the emergence of FinTech platforms on financial intermediation. In China, platform distributions of mutual funds emerged in 2012 and grew quickly into a formidable presence. Utilizing the staggered fund entrance onto platforms, we find markedly increased flow sensitivities to performance. Akin to the winner-take-all phenomenon in the platform economy, net flow captured by top 10% performing funds more than triples its pre-platform level. This pattern of platform-induced performance chasing is further confirmed using private data from Howbuy, a top platform in China. Consistent with this added incentive of becoming top performers in the era of large-scale platforms, fund managers increase risk taking to enhance the probability of becoming top performers. Meanwhile, organizational cohesiveness of fund families weakens as platforms level the playing field for all funds.
  • 详情 Culture vs. Bias: Can Social Trust Mitigate the Disposition Effect?
    We examine whether investor behavior can be influenced by the social norms to which they are exposed. Specifically, we test two competing hypotheses regarding the influence of social trust on the disposition effect related to mutual fund investment. On the one hand, a higher level of social trust may elicit stronger investor reactions by increasing the credibility of the performance numbers reported by funds. This results in higher flow-performance sensitivity, which mitigates investors’ tendency to sell winners and hold onto losers. On the other hand, societal trust may reduce concerns about expropriation, thereby weakening investors’ need to react to poor performance. The resulting lower flow-performance sensitivity increases the disposition effect. Based on a proprietary dataset of complete account-level trading information for all investors in a large mutual fund family in China, we find compelling evidence 1) of a significant disposition effect among fund investors; 2) that a higher degree of social trust is associated with higher flow-performance sensitivity; and 3) that (high) trust-induced flows mitigate the disposition effect. Our results suggest that, in addition to cognitive biases, investor behavior is also strongly influenced by social norms.