• 详情 中国上市公司商业信用调查:2005-2014 ——基于供应链应收账款融资视角
    基于供应链应收账款融资角度对中国上市公司商业信用情况进行调查。 采取定量调查方法分析国内应收账款整体规模、应收账款行业和企业分布、 金融危机前后应收账款变化等,为供应链应收账款融资模式创新提供数据支持。 研究发现占用商业信用的主要是上市公司中的大型企业。上市公司中的中小微企业实际是提供商业信用,其应收账款周转期不断增加,应收账款占总资产的比重不断提高。 金融危机后工业由净占用商业信用转变为净提供商业信用。工业应收账款规模大,应收账款占总资产比重高,应收账款周转期长,大量营运资金被占用。供应链应收账款融资模式创新对中小制造业营运资金回笼有重要意义。
  • 详情 货币政策与分布式居民消费价格指数:从微观数据到宏观分析
    长期以来,货币政策与通货膨胀的相互关系一直是主流经济学关注的核心问题。 但因不同收入群体的消费结构迥异,不同商品的价格粘性也存在显著差异,传统单一 的居民消费价格指数(Consumer Price Index)无法客观反映各收入群体所感知的真实 物价水平。本文结合中国家庭微观调查数据与宏观加总数据,创新性地构建了分布式 居民消费价格指数(Distributional CPI)。基于该指数,本文提出了货币政策通过消费 价格端影响不平等的新机制,并对其进行了量化研究。同时,本文还采用了新近发展 的我国货币政策工具变量序列来解决可能存在的内生性问题。实证结果表明,不同收 入群体的消费者价格指数存在显著差异,且低收入群体的价格指数具有更大的波动性。 进一步分析表明,与传统研究所揭示出的加总效应不同,由于消费结构的差异,货币 政策对不同收入群体的生活成本造成了异质性影响。特别地,宽松的货币政策会显著 增加低收入群体的生活成本,而高收入群体受到的影响较弱。本文的政策启示是货币 政策在稳增长、保就业之外,还在消费价格端表现出明显的社会福利分配效应。此外, 本文构建的分布式消费者价格指数也是 Piketty et al.(2018)强调的政府构建并发布分 布式国家账户(Distributional National Account)在消费价格端的一个重要延伸。
  • 详情 Can Stock Trading Suspension Calm Down Investors During Market Crises?
    This paper studies the trading behavior of investors facing a large number of firm-initiated stock trading suspension events during the Chinese stock market crisis in July of 2015. Using account-level trading data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we find that investors with a higher fraction of holding value in suspension sell less (or purchase more) of non-suspended stocks. Consequently, non-suspended stocks whose shareholders having high average account- level suspension fraction experience a relative price appreciation, which subsequently reverses. These evidences indicate that trading suspension can calm down investors and therefore helps to stabilize the volatile market in crisis time.
  • 详情 IPO Underpricing and Mutual Fund Allocation: New Evidence from Registration System
    We study the effect of mutual fund allocation on China’s IPO market under the new registration system. The introduction of mutual fund bids significantly increases IPO offer price, resulting in a low initial short-term return and suppressed IPO underpricing. Those newly listed stocks witness lower volatility in the following weeks due to preferential allocation to the mutual fund at the primary market. Further analysis suggests that large investors tend to buy during the first week after IPO and their net purchase strengthens IPO after-market volatility. This new evidence suggests that mutual fund allocation plays a critical role in IPO price discovery and decreases investor lottery trading.
  • 详情 Commonality in Mutual Fund Flows and Global Market Integration
    We examine global integration in the market for asset management, as indicated by the correlation of mutual fund flows across domiciles. We observe no leading role for the US relative to flows in other domiciles. We do observe a strong global factor in MF flows, and global integration is linked to a market’s business environment, safety from conflict, and political stability. In regional analysis, Europe represents an integrated market for asset management, led by Luxembourg, where asset managers face common flow risks across domiciles. The Asia-Pacific region displays no coherent patterns of correlations across domiciles.
  • 详情 Benchmark versus Index in Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation
    The adequate evaluation of mutual fund performance and of the fund managers’ ability to add value is an issue to which it has been given special attention in the recent financial literature. One of the traditional evaluation measures most commonly used is Carhart's alpha. However, one of the main problems of the evaluation methods that use the beta of the portfolios as a measure of risk and, therefore, Carhart's alpha is its sensitivity to the definition of the market portfolio. In this work we study the importance of defining the market portfolio using Carhart's alpha for a sample of UK mutual funds, and the influence of this market portfolio in the funds´ excess returns and in the performance ranking classification of the fund sample.
  • 详情 Renminbi Arbitrage Among Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mainland China
    Since September 1, 2014, the renminbi (RMB) offshore market in Taiwan has been started on according a cross-strait MOU. A completed RMB market in the Chinese Economic Area therefore has been established. Due to political and economic disruptions, such as the aftermath of the global tsunami, mainland China’s stock market crash and RMB exchange rate reform in 2015, as well as failure of the Service Trade Agreement between Taiwan and mainland China in 2016, the arbitrage opportunities among the three RMB markets can be explored. This paper evaluates the convergence and divergence of RMB market returns by the sigma-convergence (or log t) test, which provides a more precise indication for market return convergence than does the traditional unit root test. Policy implications for the RMB arbitrage are also provided.
  • 详情 Hedge Fund Leverage: The Role of Moral Hazard and Liquidity Insurance
    We provide a model of hedge fund securing financing from a prime broker where deterioration in collateral value exacerbates counterparty risk and liquidity risk for the prime broker due to strategic actions of hedge funds. Costs of liquidity insurance and enforcing contracts determine hedge fund leverage. The model provides several new insights. First, it uncovers a new channel for funding liquidity that can explain why illiquid funds fare worse in times of stress and why better governed funds fared better during the financial crisis. Second, the model provides a new testable hypothesis that systematic or idiosyncratic shocks to fundamentals of bank holding companies may spillover to connected hedge funds through internal capital markets. It also offers an identification strategy to distinguish between possible competing hypotheses. Third, strong governance at hedge funds may reduce incentives to invest in profitable opportunities. Fourth, banking reforms such as Supplementary Leverage Ratio, Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Standing Repo Facility intended to improve resilience of banks may also make hedge funds less vulnerable to shocks in the banking sector. Fifth, the model offers a possible reconciliation for the mixed evidence on the impact of leverage on hedge fund survival documented in the literature.
  • 详情 基于广义自回归得分的非对称拉普拉斯分布与极端下行风险预测
    鉴于金融收益率数据存在的分布有偏、高峰厚尾以及不对称等特点导致传统分布难以对其进行描述。本文基于广义自回归得分( GAS )理论改进了非对称拉普拉斯分布 (ALD) ,提出了GAS-ALD 模型,该模型具有时变参数,可以描述具有高峰厚尾、有偏以及分布不对称性等特点的数据。并使用该模型对上证指数、深圳指数与中小板指数进行了实证研究。研究发现: 三个指数的分布参数与各阶矩均有明显的时变特征与聚集特征;对比了常用的用于计算 VaR与 ES 的模型, GAS-ALD 模型对于 VaR 与 ES 具有较高的预测效力。
  • 详情 持股金融机构策略选择与资本结构优化调整
    在“降杠杆、减负债、控风险”背景下,企业持股金融机构是否影响到资本结构的动态管理,该问题值得深入探讨。本文以2006-2015年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,实证发现:混业持股金融机构增强了企业向目标杠杆调整动机,增加持股金融业务类型这一持有数量上的策略选择,以及“银行+非银行”这一业务组合布局上的策略选择,均显著缩小了目标资本结构偏离程度。然而,混业持股金融机构下,资本结构的调整速度与偏离程度呈非对称性,对于过度负债企业,混业持股金融机构反而减慢了资本结构的调整速度。进一步发现,上述策略选择对过度负债国有企业去杠杆具有一定的积极作用。本研究对资本结构调整动机与调整效率进行分离,揭示了企业集团在混业持股金融机构策略下对两者的影响存在非对称性,深化了对企业杠杆优化权衡决策的理解。